Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#221

Post by indue » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:19 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #171

jliptzin wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is coming out with an all electric pick-up and semi. Hopefully others will follow. But at least a few years before mainstream uptake.

It's important to note that even with electric cars, it will still take a long time until most electricity is produced without the use fossil fuels. Getting all of the required cobalt out of the Congo to make millions of large batteries isn't exactly ideal either. Storage and long distance transport abilities make natural gas extremely attractive.

Based upon the makeup of the grid in the United States, using an EV would be the equivalent of a 68 MPG car[1]. It will be a lot better than that if you live in a state that is 99% renewable like Vermont but even in the states with the least renewables like West Virgina it still won't be any worse than the average ICE[2].

[1] https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cl...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_electri...

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#222

Post by Apocryphon » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:19 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

It's insane that SUVs are back again, after their original wave during the Bush years.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#223

Post by WhompingWindows » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:20 PM UTC

Ancalagon wrote: post #187

I feel like there is literally no way for the average person to win this fight. I can't even avoid plastic and oil use in my day-to-day life because I live too far from the only farmers market in town, because its too expensive to live any closer. The only way I can see that I could "win" is by buying a large plot of land and essentially returning to living an 1800s style agricultural lifestyle, but even that would p…

1. Vote for politicians who want to transition our energy system

2. Support those politicians, and oppose the others

3. Drive less, drive more efficiently

4. Eat less beef, also waste less food

5. Use less heat and cooling energy

6. Bike, walk, or public transport whenever possible

Just 6 areas I think about.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#224

Post by OnlineGladiator » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:20 PM UTC

donkeyd wrote: post #199

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. The problem you're mentioning being solved by a battery pack could just as easily be solved by putting any random ballast in the back of the regular truck. I think electric will have other advantages (and disadvantages), but I doubt this is a big one for most people.

That ballast would then make the truck use even more fuel, which wouldn't make much sense.

Sure, but it solves the problem of traction. The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics. And being able to remove weight is always preferable to not being able to remove weight.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#225

Post by mikelyons » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:21 PM UTC

Whenever we grow, the universe will test us. This is an example of temptation, will we resist? Will we find another way? Or will we double down on our biggest existential threat.

Am I looking at this the wrong way? Help me to understand a more reasonable way to look at it.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#226

Post by odiroot » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:25 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

> SUV/pick-up boom

Not sure why but I see the same here, in Berlin. There is even a meme circling about SUVs being just mothers (usually talking on a phone) driving their kids to school.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#227

Post by onepointsixC » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:28 PM UTC

rossdavidh wrote: post #97

So, interesting and all, but not even mentioning what is happening to coal the last few years seems like an odd omission. Coal is essentially disappearing from the world's energy mix. As big as coal was, it takes a while to go away completely, but the trend does not seem to be slowing down. By some estimates, there are a lot of cases now where it is more expensive to keep running an existing coal-fired power plant, t…

It's not crude oil but natural gas which has been replacing coal in the US. Natural Gas is much better, and given that there is no cost effective practical grid level storage solution, it is likely to stick around in any region which see's high levels of solar and wind power generation.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#228

Post by appleiigs » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:28 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #82

eloff wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

[flagged]

As per this article[0], "The eastern provinces rely on an oil supply that's imported from Saudi Arabia, Africa and Venezuela."

Canada, an oil rich country, imports oil from Saudi Arabia... how does that make sense.

It would be better for Canada and the environment if a pipe is built. First, Canadian environmental standards vs. Saudi, Africa, Venezuela. Second, less tankers burning diesel and oil tanker accidents. Third, Canada keeps the economic benefits.

[0] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-imports-oil-while-ba...

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#229

Post by aaronblohowiak » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:32 PM UTC

robocat wrote: post #195

Ancalagon wrote: post #187

I feel like there is literally no way for the average person to win this fight. I can't even avoid plastic and oil use in my day-to-day life because I live too far from the only farmers market in town, because its too expensive to live any closer. The only way I can see that I could "win" is by buying a large plot of land and essentially returning to living an 1800s style agricultural lifestyle, but even that would p…

The amount of CO₂ we produce is correlated with our spending (embedded energy), and our spending is usually related to our income. If you have a good income, you likely produce a lot of CO₂, but you can also afford to spend some time and money on offsetting activities. For example, buy a plot of uneconomical farmland and plant good CO₂ absorbers, maybe good nursery trees so you can return land to a more native state.…

Do you have a source for tesla being a net producer of CO2? Your assertion goes against my understanding that even when powered by coal plants, it is less CO2 per mile and over lifetime of vehicle as well.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#230

Post by jdietrich » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 7:32 PM UTC

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #224

donkeyd wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That ballast would then make the truck use even more fuel, which wouldn't make much sense.

Sure, but it solves the problem of traction. The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics. And being able to remove weight is always preferable to not being able to remove weight.

>The electric vehicle also reduces efficiency by adding weight to the vehicle - being electric doesn't change physics.

The battery adds weight, but that's more than outweighed by the tremendous efficiency of an electric drivetrain. The EV equivalent of a gas-guzzler (e.g. a Tesla Model X P90D) still achieves the equivalent of 90mpg.