Live data from Hacker News

Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

bloomberg.com

251–260 of 377 posts

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#251
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The social benefit to storing value is de-risking against the future (2). I keep some money in my bank account so that if I need to buy food for a month with no source of income I can(1). If the money in my bank account buys a third as much food tomorrow because it lacks stable value as a store, that's bad for society, because if I'm going to starve to death, I might as well use the remaining energy I have to burn so…

Yes, storing value is useful, but not storing value doesn't make a currency useless. You can always store value in other ways, by purchasing assets - such as food, or another currency. It's worth noting that people tend to like to do this anyway, even when the currency is already pretty stable - because a house you can rap your knuckles against feels like a more secure store of value than numbers in a bank.

Money is designed (by central banks) to depreciate at 2%/yr. Most erstwhile "durable" goods depreciate at a faster rate. Your house certainly does. Heck, taxes and insurance alone are almost 2%, before you even look at physical depreciation, which is generally estimated to be at least 1%/yr. (Speculative assets like the land it sits on might appreciate far more to compensate, however.)

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#252
post #2

The more I know about cryptos, the more I remain skeptical. The only people I know that uses cryptos seriously are acquaintancies from latin america, and none of them for storing value, with the exception of Venezuelans. Not even argentinians, that just buy as many dollars they can. IMO this is a thread worth reading on this topic: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/dj2jro/the_large...

With current Bitcoin volatility it's crazy to store money with it. I really love tech which allows me to remember passphrase and having all money locked inside my brain, so I would certainly use it if it weren't so volatile.

It depends on your time frame, really. Most people I know do a dollar cost averaging for long term savings and their return over the years beats a whole lot of alternative ‘safe’ asset classes.

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, Bitcoin as designed is technically incapable of being in widespread use for payment, due to a severe lack of network capacity, and a complete lack of interest in ever changing this. Instead, all effort is going into a building a flawed second layer that is theoretically unsound and a usability nightmare.

> Instead, all effort is going into a building a flawed second layer that is theoretically unsound and a usability nightmare. I don't know much about LN and actually I'm quite sceptical about it. However I have tried it now couple of times with different wallets and it seems to work very fluently from user perspective. And saying this as a very old bitcoin user, so I'm used to sending bitcoin payments a lot, LN payme…

LN requires an on-chain transaction to open a channel and another to close a channel which means it'll take 70 years to open a channel for everyone on earth and then close it once, assuming the blockchain does nothing else. If an intermediate node loses power all your channel money is locked for over 48 hours. It's also not even Bitcoin and could work just as well with any other cryptocurrency or probably even dollars honestly.

Then of course there's the features people actually want like dispute resolution, the ability to charge back, and so on.

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#254
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the most I could send without network liquidity issues?

I don't know the answers to this strange question. What's the most you can send to another bank account without compliance issues?

Lightning network is limited to the liquidity offered by channel operators. What is the current situation like?

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#255
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just arbitrage, though. You're converting your liquid cash assets into another differently liquid type of cash using a less liquid form of currency, because you have special knowledge about the transfer process. Bitcoin in this is a material asset, like a house to flip in an underappreciated/subsidized market.

The seller of the gift cards likely gives a better price because payments cannot be reversed, which is a real benefit.

And fees are significantly lower.

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#256
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just arbitrage, though. You're converting your liquid cash assets into another differently liquid type of cash using a less liquid form of currency, because you have special knowledge about the transfer process. Bitcoin in this is a material asset, like a house to flip in an underappreciated/subsidized market.

The seller of the gift cards likely gives a better price because payments cannot be reversed, which is a real benefit.

Also the gift cards are likely obtained via illegal activity so a harder-to-trace transaction process is beneficial to the seller.

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't even scale to millions of users. And basically every project that tries to claim different is just ignoring the problem and trying to pump their own price. Everything in cryptocurrencies is a scam.

This is absurd hyperbole. There are people working on legitimate answers to your concerns, such as the Lightning Network and other initiatives.

Lightning is worthless because it requires an on-chain transaction to open and close, so it inherits all the same scaling issues as Bitcoin.

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#258
I enjoy reading comments about Bitcoin on this site because the valuation of this 11 year old decentralized startup has a bigger than all of Y Combinator companies COMBINED, and people are still doubting if it's useful.

If you still think Bitcoin is a fad or toy, just wait until summer 2020 when the supply shock makes 2017 look like a blip.

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't even scale to millions of users. And basically every project that tries to claim different is just ignoring the problem and trying to pump their own price. Everything in cryptocurrencies is a scam.

The internet didn't support millions of users after a decade either. Is the internet a scam? I'm not sure why you are saying all efforts go into a flawed second layer? a) Dozens of teams are working on other efforts. b) Many do not consider lightning flawed.

> The internet didn't support millions of users after a decade either. Is the internet a scam?

The internet wasn't actively anti-efficient, making itself less efficient the more people wanted to use it haha.

> I'm not sure why you are saying all efforts go into a flawed second layer?

Because Bitcoin is fundamentally incapable of processing more than a laughable number of transactions, barely enough for a small town let alone the world?

> a) Dozens of teams are working on other efforts.

With nothing to show for it that isn't either (a) an objective scam or (b) not true to the fundamentally unachievable objectives underpinning "Bitcoin"

> b) Many do not consider lightning flawed.

Many people are wrong.

Re: Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says

#260
post #157

It's impossible to have a discussion based on news reports, so here's a link for the original paper. I copied the title and abstract below. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3195066 I browsed through the paper. Their main result, if I understood correctly, is that they found "considerable evidence that Tether is used to purchase Bitcoin following Tether authorization and a drop in Bitcoin price, and…

Tether is starting to look like a Madoff-scale Ponzi scam. What maintains the $1 price of Tether is a continual net inflow of cash. Tether is known not to be backed with sufficient real assets.[1] If there's a period of net outflow from Tether, the whole house of cards comes crashing down. [1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tether-reverses-claim-of-1...

It's looked like a Madoff-scale Ponzi scam for a long time. Even in 2017, when the world was gaga over cryptocurrencies, people were saying that the Tether stuff is super sketchy.

There was a near-run on Tether this May, though, and ironically that's what pumped Bitcoin from $5300 to $8000. When folks want to dump Tether, they generally cannot dump it directly into dollars. They have to dump to Bitcoin, move it off-exchange, and then sell the dollars on an exchange with fiat currency. That means that every Tether dump creates a run on Bitcoin, which pushes the price higher. If the arbitrage trade is interrupted (as it was in May, when Binance and Bitfinex both shut down withdrawals just as the run was beginning), then the price of Bitcoin remains permanently high, and instead of selling Bitcoin on other exchanges to compensate, people buy them to match the new price, the public forgets about the panic when withdrawals open 2 weeks later, and the price remains permanently high.

I wonder also if at some point Bitfinex can just make up Tether's reserve shortfall out of their profits. (Actually, they claim that they made up the shortfall already with their Tokinex IEO, which was also super sketchy, but even if they hadn't...) Coinbase reportedly made $1B in profit in 2017 and about $400-500M in 2018; Bitfinex is of similar size, so a couple years like that and their profits could probably plug the hole, if they don't get sued/regulated out of existence first.

Post reply on HN