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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

101–110 of 489 posts

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#101
post #93
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I'm just about a complete package when it comes to being an asshole. My history on HN is more than enough to prove that. But, I don't' think humans are that useless to where they're going to fail in fixing this. This can be reversed and we're in the beginning stages. The hole in the ozone layer was deemed doomed and without repair. NASA has it in track on being fully recovered in around 2060 since we stopped us…

The ozone hole was mostly fixed by changing refrigerants. This was fought at first until it became apparent that substitute refrigerants could be produced. At that point, the refrigerant manufacturers and the manufacturers of air conditioning equipment saw that there was a pot of gold in the transition and dropped their opposition. The consumer paid for it, but consumers are often led astray and aren't organized enou…

No.

Montreal Protocol of 1987 forced a ban on the production and use of ozone depleting chemicals without alternatives. This was a way bigger problem than just refrigerants and aerosols. Asthma inhalers contain ozone depleting chemicals, but those are allowed due to no good alternatives (at the time). Those same companies "found" the alternatives and made them work because of it. By found, a multi-national decade long study through the UN found them before the protocol was signed. Those companies continuously fought the need to ban the old chemicals well into the 90s. No one cared or listened because of the environmental repercussions. Consumers didn't suffer from this in the least bit.

The idea it was some anti-consumer endeavor is just as silly as going green is anti-consumer because the consumer has to then pay more for oil down the road.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#102
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can burn as many barrels of oil as we want as long as we pay $100 - $300 per barrel to sequester the resulting CO2. There are places where that makes sense economically, but there aren't very many of those. Of course there are countries that will try to avoid doing that, but they can be coerced to join via carbon tariffs.

We currently don't have technology that can sequester carbon at the scale required.

There are dozens of different mechanisms being proposed for carbon sequestration. If there was a viable market for it, at least one of them would become viable very quickly, in my opinion.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#103
post #76
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

The notion of crude oil becoming a stranded asset seems a little silly. It will be many decades before the transportation infrastructure transitions off fossil fuels. And even then there will be demand for oil as a feed stock for chemical manufacturing (plastics, fertilizers, etc). (I'm not claiming that this is a good thing, it's just the economic reality.)

We have a LOT of oil in the ground. If most of it doesn't get stranded we're in for much, much worse problems.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#104
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Like... do inflamed Canadians hold the door open for you but not tell you to have a good day...ah? Jokes aside, Canada actually stands to profit well from global warming. With thousands of years of resting, fertile top soil, lands not suitable for agriculture due to short growing seasons... well, you'll have better growing seasons. Plus still be cool enough to not be a scorching wasteland. Just being realistic. Many…

The rural parts of Canada that aren't currently being used for growing are in the arctic/near arctic.

The changing climate won’t make the days longer. Canada will always have a shorter growing season.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#105
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like... do inflamed Canadians hold the door open for you but not tell you to have a good day...ah? Jokes aside, Canada actually stands to profit well from global warming. With thousands of years of resting, fertile top soil, lands not suitable for agriculture due to short growing seasons... well, you'll have better growing seasons. Plus still be cool enough to not be a scorching wasteland. Just being realistic. Many…

Har har stereotypes. Most of Canada's north is in fact granite "Canadian shield" country with thin or non-existent top soils. See map here: https://cdn.britannica.com/s:700x450/98/180898-050-810A6879/... Also the bulk of the population lives next to the border, in areas as far south as northern California / southern Oregon. In reality Canada will not likely benefit economically from global warming because for its ent…

I know stereotypes are fun. Us yankee-pollocks are consistently drunk and shooting off guns, all the time.

Also... humans... if there's a will, there's a way. Just because today is not true, does not mean tomorrow is not. That's been human history. If the food starts to not come in from other countries, I highly doubt Canadians, in all their kindness, won't result to scorching the earth and planting potatoes. Hopefully they don't use them to make vodka. But that's still plenty of land in the west that if the population goes hungry, they're going to figure it out... let's see, in America we have invading to spread freedom... oh! Canadians! "Looks like you all need some kindness!"

That and when it comes to Russia, you anglo-saxon-frenchie descendants have an extremely bad habit of underestimating that bear. If the Russians have the ability to adequately utilize that hell hole called Siberia, they will. Right now, there's nothing to be gained from a 2 month growing season. If temps rise enough to about a 4-6 month season. They will force farmers out there. As working farmers or as ground up fertilizer. Because they've done it in the past.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#106

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

The only solution would be to drastically reduce the value of oil and therefore make it uneconomic to dig it up. The easy-access oil is decreasing and extraction becomes more expensive.

I think from just the very chemistry of oil we can't reduce it's value enough to stop using it. The chemical processes that created it have sequestered massive amounts of energy from the past, energy that we can still use in the future, energy that we don't need take out of our future budgets. Even a space-faring species would take advantage of oil if they deign to enter a planet's gravity well.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#107
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The house is burning! The house is burning!" A child laughs. Parents take the child out of the house quickly in fear. After a moment a plane crashes into the house, obliterating it. While yes, the child was full of shit. It still led to something marginally good. Maybe the parents should have left him in the house because he's a little shit. That might make the situation better. But that's an ethics question I don't…

> It was a total bullshit scare! But it was a scare that led to a big push in getting away from fossil fuels. So still, it was a good thing. Ends justify the means. When this kind of thinking is common, though, you lose the ability to engage at all with people who might not believe that "getting away from fossil fuels" is valuable as an end in itself.[1] Is it valuable for other reasons? Certainly not any reasons tha…

I'm not saying it's right.

I'm saying it's effective.

If you say the right thing but people still do the wrong thing... who cares?

If you say the wrong thing, but people do the right thing, is that bad?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#108
post #71
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree. Just look at what happen the last time the cost of oil plunged - exploration slows to a crawl and some wells are just shut down as they can’t make money off the oil. It makes no sense to spend $10 to create a barrel of crude oil you can sell for $9.

Your contradiction is only temporary. The countries which product oil at today's price will eventually exhaust their oilfields. In response, oil prices will rise and other countries will be motivated to drill their own reserves. We will consume all convenient oil sooner or later.

The weasel word is “convenient” which mean expensive to produce.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#109
post #2

This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…

Cheap oil hasn't helped Nigeria at all.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#110
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A lot more needs to happen to end oil's stranglehold. So what's your plan? Honest question. No sarcasm. How do we get from words to action?

My solution would simply be to massively focus on nuclear. Replace all existing coal plants with nuclear plants and plug them into the network. Once you have mass production of nuclear power plants, you can start using nuclear power to create liquid alcohol fuels. Start a process of changing cars to electric or alcohol based fuels, the same goes for ships and eventually planes. The process of switching to alcohol bas…

Doesn't burning ethanol still create CO2? I don't think we can maintain our current level of energy use from hydrocarbon based fuels (ethanol or otherwise) while still keeping CO2 emissions low.
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