> This is like if the world's best chess AI had gone from losing high school tournaments to being competitive with Kasparov in less than 3 years.
I don't think it's like that at all. On the high level, there is no "chess AI", "go AI", "image classification AI" and "dexterous manipulation AI". These are all sides of the same coin, that gets significantly better every year. Adding support for the new game or new "environment" to existing deep learning based backbone still requires a bit of engineering work and a few creative tricks to unlock the best possible performance, but the underlying fundamentals are already there and are getting better and better understood.
There is a reason why the progress in AI is so hard to measure. Anytime a next task is solved, there is a crowd saying it's not a "real AI" and that scientists are solving "toy problems". Both statements are totally true. But the underlying substance is that each of these toy problems is of increasing complexity and brings us closer and closer to solving the "real problems", which are mostly so undeniably complex that we couldn't attack them upfront. Still, the speed of progress in the field of AI research is staggering and it's hard to keep up with it even for professional researchers who spend all their waking hours working on these things.
6 years ago we were able to solve some Atari games from pixels. Today, that feels like a trivial exercise compared to modern techniques. With billions of dollars of investment pouring in and steady supply of fresh talent, it is very hard to predict what the pace of research will be in the coming years. It is entirely possible we'll encounter a wall we won't be able to overcome for a very long time. It is also possible that we won't, and in that case we're in for a very interesting next few decades.