Earlier quoted context omitted.
The assessment of fund management suffers from the usual problem - there are bound to be some people who really are just that lucky. For simplicity if you look at just the last two years and four fund managers, statistically one of them will have won in both years. He will rationalise this away (his 'system') and claim to be a good manager of money. There are enough funds that quite a few of them are certain to have…
I see you have read The Black Swan. I learned a lot too when I read it. And it is an especially must-read for those getting into trading and fund management.
Nope, just took too many stastics classes I guess :)