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Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

economist.com

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Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#311

Post by ivanhoe »

jdavis703 wrote: post #269
ivanhoe wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you're saying is taking into account only big cities and young population, but in small places and suburbs you depend on cars to do anything, get anywhere. Old people can't be expected to walk far or drive scooters and bikes everyday. And population is mostly getting older, plus with the rise of remote work I presume that more and more people will move outside the big urban centers looking for slower pace and ch…

> Old people can't be expected to walk far or drive scooters and bikes everyday. Yet that's what one sees in Copenhagen.

And Copenhagen is well known for its high hills, right? Not everyone lives in Holland and Copenhagen and other flat places. Also, while it's definitely great that Scandinavians live their healthy and slightly ascetic lifestyle, it's not everyones cup of tea outside of those specific nations/cultures. Maybe it should be, by all means if this is what young people want they should do it one day when they grow old. But it's silly to expect from old people who grew up in some other time to now suddenly jump into that lifestyle, especially in places that naturally don't fit it. Walking short distances, great. Public transportation, also great. Bikes for everyone... well, great for those who want it, but leave people a room to dislike riding a bike (or anything else) for whatever their reason is.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#312

Post by Slartie »

unityByFreedom wrote: post #282
Slartie wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's too bad investors are climbing over each other to throw money down the long, narrow corridor that is self driving I don't consider that bad. Anyone is free to make bad investments. I do consider it bad that they haven't yet had to book that many losses, due to the hype still going strong and them finding enough other idiots to join the party. I'm longing for the day on which bad investment decisions (such as i…

> I don't consider that bad. Anyone is free to make bad investments. You don't find it unfortunate when capital is allocated towards failing business models rather than tech that has real promise?

Not as long as this situation does not persist for too long. The market is supposed to correct such inefficiencies by dividing such failing investors from their money and conversely rewarding investors in successful and sustainable business models with that money.

The actual problem is not that investment errors are made. Such errors will always be made, as long as it's impossible to predict the future. The problem is that it appears as if right now, we are in a situation in which the negative consequences of such errors can seemingly be postponed virtually forever into the future. Or at least that has worked great for a decade now (first cracks are appearing lately, but it's far from enough yet).

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#313

Post by mikestew »

ivanhoe wrote: post #305
mikestew wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old people can't be expected to walk far or drive scooters and bikes everyday. You need to give some serious readjustment to your mental image of “old people”. Perhaps the word you’re looking for is “disabled” or “differently-abled”, depending upon your preference. Some of those people, maybe disproportionately so, also happen to be old. I’d type more, but this AARP member crashed his scooter on the way to work on Fr…

I myself am 40+ and seriously obese, so I'm definitely counting myself into that "too old for e-scooter" group, but I actually had in mind average around-70-and-plus people around me, like my parents and their friends, the "real old people". They can walk but can't walk across the city every day, they can go on a leisure bike ride, but not ride it uphill (and we don't all live in flatland like Dutch), and you definit…

but I actually had in mind average around-70-and-plus people around me, like my parents and their friends, the "real old people".

Guess what, me, too! My anecdata are from a more active group, though. So we have differing views of the world, and that’s fine. I’ve never been overweight a day in my life, so I try to avoid general, “all ya need to do is...” It demonstrates a lack of empathy and a small world view.

But I would ask the same of others. Yes, there are people with limited mobility. I get that. But they’re still a minority, and does it need to be brought up every g-ddamned time the subject comes up that not everyone can ride a scooter? Most people can, can we talk about them for a minute before dive off into the edge cases?

We can talk about limited mobility options, no we will talk about them, just maybe later. But the reason we have cities over run with cars now is because way too many people who are otherwise capable think they can’t hobble more than a city block, and only under perfect conditions.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#314

Post by nradov »

Steltek wrote: post #308
nradov wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4 kids will fit easily in a minivan or large SUV. Lots of families manage that.

4 kids will fit after everyone has been dressed, got their shoes on, got their shoes on again, been lifted/chased into the car/bike. That's what I meant by "screwed". The choice of vehicle doesn't really matter. Once they're older, kids can bike themselves or walk. Families also manage that.

Most parents consider their children to be blessings rather than "screwed". But I see you've already made up your mind to be condescending about family choices. You obviously know better than those other parents, right?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#315

Post by aSplash0fDerp »

300bps wrote: post #173
bogle wrote: post #133

If we expect driverless cars to be further delayed and we continue building our cities to encourage micromobility (bikes, electric scooters, segregated lanes, car free streets, etc.) then at which point does the value of the driverless car become moot because we no longer drive? Does this sound unlikely? Consider European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam which have encouraged cycling over the last two decades and…

If you don't need to drive why would you buy a driverless car? I don’t anticipate many people will ever buy a driverless car. The whole concept of buying a car is kind of ridiculous. You pay for it then you continue paying for registration, insurance, maintenance, park, etc all while it sits idle 90% of the time. Driverless cars allow you to be picked up at your front door and dropped off exactly at the spot wherever…

>I don’t anticipate many people will ever buy a driverless car.

Unless buying a fleet of vehicles over time produces better gains/results than other retirement/investment options (fossil fuel divestment or 401k replacements, plus having the convenience of immediate SDC access).

I think cars embody the classic american spirit of freedom and "wind in your hair" fleeting moments.

After gen-x, the cost of vehicles skyrocketed to parity with what modest accomodations used to cost, so the younger generations are writing their story with a much different frame of reference.

I enjoy the saying "In America,100 years is a long time and in Europe, 100 miles is a long distance".

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#316

Post by kiba »

nradov wrote: post #314
Steltek wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4 kids will fit after everyone has been dressed, got their shoes on, got their shoes on again, been lifted/chased into the car/bike. That's what I meant by "screwed". The choice of vehicle doesn't really matter. Once they're older, kids can bike themselves or walk. Families also manage that.

Most parents consider their children to be blessings rather than "screwed". But I see you've already made up your mind to be condescending about family choices. You obviously know better than those other parents, right?

I don't see how you managed to see something like that as condescending or condemning your family choices. It's just a problem that parents with four children presumably have to deal with?

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#317

Post by zrm »

goatinaboat wrote: post #97
_xnmw wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from the suggestion of beta testing on human lives, you are assuming that your phase-deployment mechanism always works correctly. Even Google has previously botched phased deployments and slow rollouts.

Or that a nice phased rollout over the summer doesn’t fail as soon as leaves fall or it rains

The thing about systemic risk is that it's systemic. You don't have to wait six months for leaves to fall because when it's spring in North America it's autumn in Australia. One place going without rain for months may be common but every place going without rain for months would be unprecedented.

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#318

Post by _ea1k »

rhino369 wrote: post #15
crocal wrote: post #8

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or eve…

I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver. Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.

> I think the fundamental issue Musk has is that his cars can’t drive safer than even a below average driver.

Agreed.

> Oh wow, it can stay in a lane and match speed! So can every car manufacturer. They’ve got a level 2+ system and cars won’t be safer until level 4.

I don't find this to be true at all. ProPilot is terrible compared to AutoPilot and many of the other manufacturers have the same limitations (or worse).

Re: Driverless cars are stuck in a jam

#319

Post by rhino369 »

jcranmer wrote: post #243
rayiner wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars are way more comfortable and more convenient than public transit. Working Parisians who take transit spend 113 minutes a day commuting: https://www.thelocal.fr/20160418/parisians-spend-23-days-a-y... DC, where most people drive, averages about 70 minutes. Commuters in Dallas, where everyone drives, spend just 54 minutes a day commuting: https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hou...

Speaking from personal experience here, my commute time tolerance is roughly double if I'm commuting by transit versus driving. In other words, a 60 minute trip by transit is roughly as painful as a 30 minute drive. Other people I've talked to have also expressed similar feelings.

I've found pretty much the opposite. People don't consider public transit unless its clearly the better option.
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