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What costs are exponentially dropping?

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41–50 of 67 posts

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#41
post #36

Laptops were for a while, but then stopped once they hit parity with desktops.

>once they hit parity with desktops.

I don't think they ever hit parity with desktops, mainly due to thermal constraints. There's no way that a 15W laptop cpu can ever come close to a 95W desktop cpu in anything other than short term (comparison between a mid range desktop CPU (i5-9600K) and a high end laptop CPU (i7-8550U): https://cpu.userbenchmark.com/Compare/Intel-Core-i5-9600K-vs...

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#42
Cost per GFLOPS: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS#Hardware_costs

Probably the clearest chart that explains why machine learning is blowing up now, despite the fact that the same neural network architectures existed since 1990s (e.g., LeNet-5).

It's because cost dropped from $47,000 per GFLOPS to $0.02!!!

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#43
post #41
post #36

Laptops were for a while, but then stopped once they hit parity with desktops.

>once they hit parity with desktops. I don't think they ever hit parity with desktops, mainly due to thermal constraints. There's no way that a 15W laptop cpu can ever come close to a 95W desktop cpu in anything other than short term ( comparison between a mid range desktop CPU (i5-9600K) and a high end laptop CPU (i7-8550U): https://cpu.userbenchmark.com/Compare/Intel-Core-i5-9600K-vs...

You could argue that it reached feature parity. Today you can do nearly everything on laptop including basic editing.

Compare that to even 5 years ago where the costs of such a laptop was much higher.

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#44

Tech startup valuations, all contracting exponentially. Super cheap! Sorry I'll show myself the door.

Back when I was a kid, Silicon Valley startups sold dollar bills for ninety cents.

Now WeWork is selling them for a nickel. The cost of everything is dropping like a rock! /s

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#45

Food (not the largest exponent, but probably the longest history)

I'm not sure. I did some analysis comparing the cost of basic grocery items in the early 20th century to now and they aren't that different. I used the price of gold at the time vs now and the average daily wage to try to get a better feel for relative prices.

Over hundreds or thousands of years, yes, definitely.

All that said, it seems like automation could push the cost of food to near zero in the coming decades.

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#46

To those that say DNA seq; although the cost to perform the actual sequence has dropped, there are still a ton of overhead costs in acquiring and managing any genomic data. Context - product platform guy at biobank.

I mean, I suppose that depends on how you're defining "overhead" cost? To sequence a human genome, you _need_ to purchase a ~$700 reagent kit from Illumina to plop into your HiSeq and a ~$300 library prep kit -- are these overhead? I wouldn't call them overhead, and this fixed-cost hasn't really changed for 5+ years.

Those two costs are what makeup the $1000/human genome stat, we don't factor in the human and consumables components

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#48
post #8
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the price of genome sequencing is no longer dropping exponentially. And when it was, it was heavily amortized across very expensive machines that masked the true costs.

Huh, didn't know this. Surely the cost of the machines has to be included somehow in the cost per basepair?

Let's just say that every analysis of sequencing costs I've seen has to play extensive trickery with the various costs (the capital cost of acquiring the machine, the operational costs of the reagents, the costs associated with staff running the machine, the servers required to store the data after it's acquired). Basically the stated prices are "the operational costs for a reagent" with the cost of the machine subsidized out or amortized or otherwise hidden from the calculation.

Many of the predictions about exponential genomics were done during a period of a few years where those misleading rates were published. I spent a bunch of time trying to figure out how to engineer systems to deal with exabytes of genomics data, but there is no reason to do that, because there isn't that much data being produced/retained or that needs to be maintained on spinning platters of rust. Just another example of bio hype, unfortunately.

Re: What costs are exponentially dropping?

#49

- Costs of delivering mass to orbit. - Nanotubes - Graphene - Internet costs (I'm pretty sure it's dropping faster than exponentially) - CDN and storage in general - Many medical procedures I expect meat prices to collapse in the next 10 years.

> - Internet costs

The astute reader will recall these are 'costs' not 'retail prices'

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