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Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

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Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#91
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Principal repayment is a savings account if and only if real estate never declines in value.

True. But on the other hand, I'm not factoring any upside relating to increase in value. See my edit in parent about risk.

You're also not factoring in the maintenance costs of owning a house, which are also siphoning value out of that "savings account".

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#92
post #29

I'm from Australia but now live in NYC and I've been debating the question about whether to buy or rent. It's amusing to me to see a big red circle on this graphic for NYC. I can understand why. NYC is a special case in many ways. For one thing, from a purely financial perspective, your best bet is to find a rent stabilized apartment that is well under market value and then invest your money elsewhere, possibly on bu…

Since housing is a proxy for net migration, what are the stats for NYC?

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#93
post #29

I'm from Australia but now live in NYC and I've been debating the question about whether to buy or rent. It's amusing to me to see a big red circle on this graphic for NYC. I can understand why. NYC is a special case in many ways. For one thing, from a purely financial perspective, your best bet is to find a rent stabilized apartment that is well under market value and then invest your money elsewhere, possibly on bu…

Are you figures in real terms or nominal terms? If nominal, then sentences like "where once you could build a house for $80k, now anything less than $150-200k is unrealistic" are unsuitable for building an argument upon.

A lot of his point was that there's a difference between real and nominal terms. He was saying real estate is a hedge against inflation; in that context, saying that "the $80K house 10 years ago now costs $150-200K" is perfectly relevant.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#94
post #89
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your numbers seem to be a little off, unless we are talking about places that are closer to bronx or buildings that are falling apart. In midtown, that 1BR will run you ~$2,500 to rent and close to $1 million to buy. Maintenance fees should also be higher, at least $800.

I lived in NYC during 2009-2010 and looked at a number of rental 1BRs under $2000 in Chelsea/Flatiron/Murray Hill & that area around Gramercy that isn't really Gramercy. I wouldn't say the buildings were falling apart but they did have dated architecture, and not dated enough to be classic. (think 70s/80s). Likewise, I thought it would be a good time to buy, and there are a lot of 1BR Maintenance fees were indeed alw…

Morningside Heights is also expensive because of Columbia University.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#95

I have come to the conclusion that buying to occupy is no longer a rational decision. Consider a grid. On one axis, housing purchases are cheap or expensive. On the other axis, the local economy is vibrant or moribund. Hence: * Cheap + Vibrant: Basically doesn't exist. * Cheap + Moribund: Bad place to buy, you're tied to a high-risk location. * Expensive + Vibrant: Purchase cost will eat up the advantage of the local…

ahh I've heard of that before. It is the idea that markets are perfect. But in reality, you only need to find one house that is improperly priced. Given banks are pretty tight on lending now, a borrower who can convince the bank to lend is better placed to offer a lower price.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A third risk (technically subsumed by 1): your local economy tanks, driving down both your income and the value of your house. Buying a home to live in is a form of un-diversification.

A fourth risk: Fed raises interest rates then your monthly mortgage payments cost more than renting and hopefully not more than you can afford.

If interest rates go up and the person who you're renting off has a mortgage on the place and his interest rates go up - your rent will go up.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#98
post #56
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey mate. Interesting perspective. without knowing your financial situation, I'd suggest to keep working in the U.S. and invest in housing back in Australia. Both are great prospects but you might be able to buy 2 houses near the beach in Australia (say Perth / Adelaide) for the price of one in NYC. In a way, it gives you diversification that NYC doesn't. Also buying walking distance from the beach gives you that sec…

Amusingly, there are media stories here in Australia about people working in Australia and buying property in the US. Might have the details wrong, but one woman had sold an investment property (in Darwin maybe?) and bought five apartments (in Florida, I think?) in the US with that money.

I'm thinking about doing it. Positively geared properties sound very enticing.

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#99
post #38
post #29

I'm from Australia but now live in NYC and I've been debating the question about whether to buy or rent. It's amusing to me to see a big red circle on this graphic for NYC. I can understand why. NYC is a special case in many ways. For one thing, from a purely financial perspective, your best bet is to find a rent stabilized apartment that is well under market value and then invest your money elsewhere, possibly on bu…

Hey mate. Interesting perspective. without knowing your financial situation, I'd suggest to keep working in the U.S. and invest in housing back in Australia. Both are great prospects but you might be able to buy 2 houses near the beach in Australia (say Perth / Adelaide) for the price of one in NYC. In a way, it gives you diversification that NYC doesn't. Also buying walking distance from the beach gives you that sec…

> Also buying walking distance from the beach gives you that security that land value will never go down.

Sure, just like all those condos in Miami... There is no economic law that says that properties near the beach can never go down in value!

Re: Rent vs. Buy Visualization of Top 50 Cities

#100
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. I just ran the numbers for SF. Based on mid-point of Trulia's buying and renting price ranges ($750K to buy, $3.25K monthly rent), I get the following annual real costs: buying: ~$24K renting: ~$36K That is based on the following assumptions: 40% margin tax rate, principal repayment is not a real cost (it's a saving account...) 15% down payment (renters invest the equivalent amount in a 3% annual return fund…

> you can always go back to renting in 5 years For definitions of "always" where the real estate market never tanks and houses are easy to sell.

I am talking specifically about: a $750K house in San Francisco, bought at a time when the market has recently dropped ~15%, holding for 5 years, and with 15% down. That still does not qualify as 'always', but it seems to be very improbable that you wont be able to sell (w/o loss or default) in that case. It's not a 0% chance, but as I said in the edit to my original comment, buying a house is risky, but with risk comes reward.
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