It really sounds like china is being the smartest one here.
Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
91–100 of 265 posts
Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#92Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#93Free market only works when everyone follows the same rules. When you have a player like China who is dead set on taking advantages of the rules but never taking the responsibility, you create an one-sided situation. Trade is not just an economic issue. It's a political issue when you have China in the game.
Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#94Paul Krugman and other mainstream trade experts are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization: It hurt American workers far more than they thought it would. Did America’s free market economists help put a protectionist demagogue in the White House? Even if you didn't vote for Trump or don't like him, Trump has been critiquing globalization for years before he came to office especially with regards to Chi…
I think most economists would say that the purpose of globalization was to make the nation better off, and that the nation's values, systems and leadership would be called on to distribute those gains in a way consistent with that nation's values. Perhaps the real issue here is not one of trade, but of the collapse of unions, the dramatic change in the nature of our media, broken leadership structures, and a lazy min…
The issue wasn't of trade but of a small group of people who benefitted from exporting jobs abroad to sell products at home and then still avoid paying the taxes.
Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#95The big question I’ve been struggling with in regards to the free trade debate is this: Is cheap labor a legitimate source of comparative advantage? I increasingly don’t think that it is. Yes, we get products more cheaply. But those products are made in countries with fewer labor restrictions, often in places that are not democratic, where workers cannot vote for changing laws. We’re effectively saying we want democr…
No, it isn't. Living in the Rust Belt, I find it so obvious that globalization is a race to the bottom that I'm amazed any reasonable person could believe otherwise. All the jobs move to countries with the worst wages, environmental protection, safety, workers' rights, etc.
In economists' language, through labor organization and the democratic process, relatively free countries' workforces created a de facto monopoly on labor, which was able to extract some monopolistic rent (i.e. workers' wages > what they "should" be). Standard economic theory says this has a redistributive effect (labor pulls money from everyone else) plus an inefficiency effect (there's some potential value lost by the artificially high wages).
Standard economic theory says markets should always be free, to avoid the inefficiency effect. This is where I disagree with standard economic theory: When it comes to the labor market, I firmly believe the inefficiency effect is a cost worth paying for the redistributive effect.
If you open up your trade to the rest of the world, fungible jobs all go to the poorest, most repressed people, who can be paid the lowest wages and exploited in the worst ways. It's great for lifting people out of extreme poverty, but as a side effect it slides every country toward moderate poverty while moving all the wealth to the 1%. That's a recipe for potentially dangerous levels of social and political instability.
My solution? Every country with high standards in wages, environmental protection, safety, workers' rights, etc. needs to implement tariffs to level the playing field. If your country has high standards, other countries can still choose lower standards and trade with you, but the competitive benefits of those lower standards will be nullified by the tariffs. Which lets you keep your high standards without wrecking your economy (and as a side benefit raises revenue without taxing your people directly, and gives countries with low standards an economic incentive to improve themselves. Which is potentially a great humanitarian breakthrough, improving the lives of lots of ordinary people in countries whose rulers care only for their wallet).
I think the Trump's tariffs are a move in the right direction, although I think he's made a mistake by making the policy more of a negotiation lever than a semi-permanent way to compensate for China's low wages and poor standards.
I believe so strongly in the value of a tariff policy that I used to say that I thought Trump's willingness to implement tariffs more than balances all of his many negatives. Lately I'm not so sure about that, not because I've lost faith in tariffs, but because Trump's done a lot more negative things than I thought he would.
Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#96Can we please get Paul Krugman off the New York Times editorial board? Or at least include a disclaimer that he doesn't know much about most of the things he writes about. He got his Nobel prize from a career working in a pretty specific scope. I am tired of people taking his articles as works of a god.
This is true of most journalists.
Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
I read an article once, that claimed when a Scandinavian country joined the EU, they expected significant job distortion as a result of free trade. So they literally moved government agencies from their current locations, to locations that they expected would be hardest hit. The end result was the shifting of thousands of government jobs from one location to another. Highly trained people in the old government center…
This seems like a great idea. It ensures that even if government efficiency is low, it is providing positive value. I'm surprised this concept isn't more widespread.
But there's always the risk of a pathological co-dependency on government employment. You can see this in many developing countries. So for partly legitimate reasons, the Civil Service has long been the boogeyman of Republican politics. Specifically, that civil servants are reliable "big government", Democratic voters. Better to 1) pack their voting power and 2) prefer private out-sourcing. This is one major reason (if not the major reason) why government agency activity and policy have migrated to D.C., and why the headquarters of so many corporations have moved to the D.C. metro area.
Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#98What really made globalization work was containers and faxes. Before containerization, shipping was kind of an iffy business. Sometimes it showed up, sometimes it got lost or stolen, and sometimes it got broken. After containers, if you ordered a container load, it usually showed up intact. The importance of faxes to trade is underestimated. Not only was it faster, faxes work well across language barriers. An invoice…
These things are so fundamental that you don't see economists writing articles about them. Macroeconomics generally lumps those things under "productivity". Container ships were almost the poster child of globalization. Faxes (and telex, etc) had been around for decades. We have the alphabet we use today because international Phonecian traders (phonetics, see?) used it for exactly the type of documents you're talking…
Which is the problem. Those things were bigger than Government economic policy, as we can see them having affected trade across a large number of countries with varied policies.
It's not "productivity", anyway. It's "relative cost advantage" and "reduction of trade friction".
The giant mistake of macroeconomics is claiming that free markets are a self-perpetuating condition. In the absence of trade friction and the presence of network effects, consolidation tends to occur. It continues to the point of monopoly or oligopoly. The end state, for now, seems to be having three or less providers who don't compete very hard on price.
There's an EU study that indicates prices drop from competition only with four or more players. "Free markets" seem to have a minimum size in practice.
The US has three big banks, three big drugstore chains, and will soon have three big cellular providers. Two big agriculture companies. Five big film studios, though.
Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#99Re: Economists are now admitting that they were wrong about globalization
#100The big question I’ve been struggling with in regards to the free trade debate is this: Is cheap labor a legitimate source of comparative advantage? I increasingly don’t think that it is. Yes, we get products more cheaply. But those products are made in countries with fewer labor restrictions, often in places that are not democratic, where workers cannot vote for changing laws. We’re effectively saying we want democr…
The thing is, for those workers in "poor" countries, this is a step up . My wife can tell you what two months' work for $300 meant to subsistence farmers in Guatemala. They were happy to get it. You may say "Sure, they're poor and exploited, but that doesn't make it morally right for us to exploit them just a little less ". I agree, up to a point. But insisting on first-world working conditions (including pay) mean t…
What do you think the country would be like today if we hadn't killed the union leaders and installed a dictator friendly towards US business?