Tesla Q3 Financial Results • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#191

Post by FighterMafia » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 1:54 AM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #58

nyczomg wrote: post #45

Sorry if this is slightly off topic, but it is amazing to me how differently various publications are spinning the same basic facts. Some headline samples: "Tesla shares soar after crushing third-quarter earnings" CNBC "Tesla's Quarterly Profit Drops 54%" WSJ "Tesla returns to profitability and tops Wall Street's third-quarter earnings" Business Insider "Tesla ekes out a profit as all eyes turn to its China Gigafacto…

And you know what? All the headlines are true! Knowing which takeaways matter is the hard part, and particularly with investing, if you did know, you’d be very rich. I think the YoY EPS is the least interesting and more erratic headline personally. They had one prior profitable quarter which happened to be Q3 2018. That was under a full subsidy regime only selling the highest ASP Model 3s while there was still higher…

well, all you need to know is if they beat Street expectations for EPS and FCF...which they did...massively...which is why the stock is up 20% after hours.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#192

Post by kick » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:00 AM UTC

sjg007 wrote: post #166

kick wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not all discussion is good discussion. Quality over quantity, as 'dang has said in the past.

That only makes sense in this case if the parent comment is a troll comment but there are cases which clearly are not.

A parent comment can be a bad comment without being trolling, which is important to remember.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#193

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:01 AM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #6

$143M GAAP / $342M Non-GAAP Net Income. $371M free cash flow. GAAP Gross Margin 18.9%. That is before G3 comes online which will, I believe, have an upward case for margins. That is the big news here today. And that is really great news for Tesla. Over $5.3B cash on hand. TSLA is in an amazing position going into Q4 and 2020. Highly confident of exceeding 360k deliveries for 2019. Just an amazing run up to the end of…

just goes to show how media narratives are often wrong. everyone for the past 2 years has been saying tesla is dead due to losses and Elon Musk's supposed "erratic behavior" (that is what the media labels you if you are successful but fail to comply with what they deem to be conventional social etiquette ), yet Tesla has consistently shown an ability to prove naysayers wrong. Tesla generates tons of cash flow from business operations, similar to Amazon despite large one-time losses and not needing to advertise. This is analogous to opening a Subway or McDonald's franchise and initially taking on a lot of debt, but the business of selling burgers is profitable. Analogous to a flipping a light switch, as soon as Tesla stops spending on cap-ex for expansion, Tesla will instantly go from losing a lot of money each quarter to making a lot of profit.

Also,Tesla can raise debt so cheaply and so easily, that its stock actually went up when it did a secondary offer. Let that sink in: Tesla stock went up despite diluting itself, which virtually never happens. That’s like being paid to borrow money, which give you an idea of how advantageous of a position Tesla is in. Tesla is possibly the only company in existence that gains value when it takes on debt. Just goes to show how media keeps being wrong about Tesla running out money being a concern. In theory they can raise as much money as they want and the price won’t go down.

Ford and GM need to spend billion on adverting a year to make people aware their new models exist, let alone want to buy them. Tesla gets free PR though its spokesperson and CEO , Elon Musk, and his Twitter account and its captive audience of millions of followers, which is way better than some crappy, million-dollar TV ad that 99.999% of viewers will fast-forward, forget, or ignore. And then the media is glued to Musk's twitter account, so anything Musk tweets out is amplified, all for free.

Tesla is going to go much higher. I think $1000 share within 4 years is easily doable.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#194

Post by wmhorne » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:01 AM UTC

Why can't Tesla divorce their interest in producing electric vehicles from their agenda in producing autonomous ones? It seems there is so much call for the former and so little for the latter. I wonder why they've felt the need to fuse the two.

I, for one, wish there was an option for a cheaper Tesla without all the self-driving capabilities, much of which is useless now and will, I expect, become obsolete before any actual self-driving is commonplace.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#195

Post by electriclove » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:03 AM UTC

wmhorne wrote: post #194

Why can't Tesla divorce their interest in producing electric vehicles from their agenda in producing autonomous ones? It seems there is so much call for the former and so little for the latter. I wonder why they've felt the need to fuse the two. I, for one, wish there was an option for a cheaper Tesla without all the self-driving capabilities, much of which is useless now and will, I expect, become obsolete before an…

You can get the ~$35k Model 3 which does not come with AutoPilot. It is an amazing value.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#196

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:11 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #53

zaroth wrote: post #6

$143M GAAP / $342M Non-GAAP Net Income. $371M free cash flow. GAAP Gross Margin 18.9%. That is before G3 comes online which will, I believe, have an upward case for margins. That is the big news here today. And that is really great news for Tesla. Over $5.3B cash on hand. TSLA is in an amazing position going into Q4 and 2020. Highly confident of exceeding 360k deliveries for 2019. Just an amazing run up to the end of…

Not sure why people think long term Tesla is in an amazing position. Their market share can only go down. All of the car companies have or are releasing cars this year/next and are significantly more capitalised. Some of these cars are superior to Tesla e.g. Porsche Taycan and their ability to share platforms between brands helps to amortise costs. As we've seen with Summon their FSD program does not look like coming…

reminds of the same ppl who said in 2003-2013 that competitors to the ipod and then the iPhone have better features or are better. Tesla's value is not just in the features, price, and performance, but also the brand itself.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#197

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:13 AM UTC

a13n wrote: post #168

steelframe wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to lecture or suggest your decision is unsound, but note that the expected opportunity cost of investing in any given stock vs. an index ETF over 9 years is about an 85% return.

How is this calculated? Simply by taking the average of every stock you could possibly invest in? On NASDAQ + NYSE?

most individual stocks lag the index . the odds of choosing a stock that beats or meets the index are low.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#198

Post by dd36 » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:14 AM UTC

manigandham wrote: post #88

dd36 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Porsche Taycan is not superior on any metric. Also, they just turned a profit. Did you write this comment before they reported?

On any metric? The car reviews disagree. There's a general consensus that Porsche did a great job with a sporty car that appeals to its client base, and benefits from the luxury and build quality experience of the brand.

Style is subjective. Everywhere else it under performs a Model S and costs twice as much.

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#199

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:15 AM UTC

pcurve wrote: post #87

20% jump after market. I'm really confused. Is this short covering? I've read through the financial statement. They're fine, but I'm scratching my head over why it warrants 20% jump? Anyone have a good explanation?

why is it less rational for the stock to rise 20% than it was to fall 20% in 2018?

Re: Tesla Q3 Financial Results

#200

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Oct 24, 2019, 2:17 AM UTC

kosievdmerwe wrote: post #84

wesammikhail wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but they are up 1130% since IPO. I personally dont understand why people use psychological lines such as month/quarter/year or 25/50/100 when none of that really matters. A business is a continuous process and should be looked at as such.

Yes, but you could also have invested your money elsewhere and continued to see growth. Except for the complexity involving taxes and fees, if your money sits in Tesla shares for a long time and the stock stays flat, then you've lost money. Both in terms of opportunity cost and through inflation. And this is irrespective of when you bought them.

you can mitigate this buy selling long dated put options on tesla, which hare very , very expensive and can yield a big return even if Tesla does nothing