Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#791

Post by maze-le » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:00 AM UTC

johnmorrison wrote: post #766

arnaudsm wrote: post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a more scientific approach, the IPCC[1] models show we could see mass migrations between 200M and 1.5B due to climate change before the end of the century. Not a total collapse, but the collapse of a dozen of countries due to unsustainable heat and drought. [1] https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php%3Fi...

Yes, this is much more accurate of our best predictions. Bjørn Lomborg says[1] by the end of the century, climate change left unchecked will only lower the global GDP by a 2-4 percentage points of what it would have otherwise grown to , which is going to be 300-1000% higher than today. So basically, best case scenario 980% GDP growth, worst case 288% GDP growth. This shows climate change is a problem, but it's too sl…

If the history of the last 40 years of "climate debate" teaches us anything, then that it will not only be left unchecked, but it will become worse. There is absolutely no reason to be optimistic about CO2 emissions on a global scale.

If zero emissions by 2040 is a realistic scenario, then we have to create the foundations of this development now. What we do instead is: lackluster regulations in Europe, active denialism and in the US, expansion of the oil- and gas industry in Russia and increased coal production in China.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#792

Post by pharke » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:06 AM UTC

briandear wrote: post #605

dogcomplex wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think you nailed it - the most important problem is overcoming the social friction that enables companies to centralize control of entire industries for no reason other than - they got to it first. We need ways for consumers to organize en-masse to switch services - since trickling out one by one has such a disadvantage ("all my friends use X..."). My hope there, if any, lies in someone developing a mature incentiviz…

> centralize control of entire industries for no reason other than - they got to it first. But those big companies didn’t get there first. History is littered with companies that were too big to beat. The secret is obvious but difficult: find a better way and people that agree it’s a better way. Look at Cirrus Aircraft for a relatively recent example — they tackled an ultra regulated, expensive business and are now t…

Exactly, we need a Facebook that actually encourages healthy human interaction and is adverse to viral pollution, dopamine addiction and rage triggers. If it's genuinely useful it will win out.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#793

Post by frobozz » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:09 AM UTC

Thorentis wrote: post #572

el_dev_hell wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't blame them either. Why would you do home health when you can get similar pay working at a factory, warehouse, or, even, fast food. My mother was a nurse for years in the aged care sector. The pay for a qualified nurse is actually pretty good (I would still argue it should be higher for the work, but it was well above average). Homecare aids (or AIN/care assistants as they were called here) are paid horribly…

We are at a turning point in society right now because of all the things you address. In the last few decades have seen a rapid shift in the willingness of family members to look after their elderly. There's a few reasons for this, the biggest I think is the ageing population. When your parents need care at 85 years old, and you are 60 looking at retiring soon (or perhaps can't retire and need to work for another 7 y…

> Relatives often shoot themselves in the foot though ... because they didn't want to look after them themselves.

Or because it is too difficult to do so. People are having children later in life and moving to different cities. Housing affordability in many places makes it difficult to provide for a family on one income. If your parents need care as young as 80 and you are 50 with young teenaged children, your capacity to also provide daily living assistance to up to four people who live 100 miles away in opposite directions is rather limited.

> Centuries ago, if you could live comfortably ... you need to pay people increasing amounts of money to do what was once considered menial or easy work

Jobs like this in domestic service or healthcare often came with accommodation and sometimes board.

Even if that's in a dormitory, it would still often be better accommodation than you would be able to afford on the market. The level of comfort relative to others of your class would be enormous.

Nowadays, those affordability problems that everyone is experiencing are compounded for people in roles that would previously have been live-in positions.

Another issue is that the job of a healthcare assistant is not only poorly paid, but is also not part of a career path. Previously, much of this work would have been done by (often trainee or junior) nurses, with all the prestige and potential that that career brings with it.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#794

Post by johnmorrison » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:13 AM UTC

littlestymaar wrote: post #790

johnmorrison wrote: post #784

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, GDP growth does not outweigh deaths. However I don't think the primary issues caused by climate disruption will be human deaths, but instead the loss of assets in compromised areas. Humans will relocate, and lose a lot of wealth, but why would they die en mass? > fleeing their then uninhabitable countries ... which will lead to millions of death I'm not sure if this is true, actually. What is true is th…

> Humans will relocate, and lose a lot of wealth, but why would they die en mass? What a wonderful world you live in. Do you genuinely believe it's that simple? What do you think happens when 1 million people move from one country to another? They do not simply relocate, they are parked in camps (if you want current examples of that look at the Rohingya people, or Syrian refugees in Lebanon) until they can go back ho…

I feel you're conflating two different types of migration, and the issue isn't nearly as big as your 150 million deaths figure.

Almost all countries have ample space that will still be habitable for their entire population in 2100, even if climate change is left unchecked.

Those that don't represent a small portion of the global population, certainly less than 500 million people. I grew up in Botswana, and I know that "all of central Africa is uninhabitable" is not a likely outcome anytime soon. Most of Africa is actually really good land to live in, and will continue to be fairly good through the century.

In any case, Italy does not need to "park 10 million people in camps". Italy is a tiny country in terms of land area, so why would they need to take so many? Russia and Canada alone could easily fit a few billion immigrants each if global warming is really severe in a few centuries.

The notion that the only solution to climate change is to move everybody into already crowded places doesn't seem to have a base. We can solve the migration problem with or without moving people into Europe.

Anyways, my core point here is (a) we won't need to deal with this migration anyways, because we will solve climate change way before it becomes necessary, and (b) even if we didn't lower our emissions, I'm confident we can solve the migration problem without millions of deaths.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#795

Post by johnmorrison » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:21 AM UTC

ahje wrote: post #787

johnmorrison wrote: post #768

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable / with severe barriers to life. This won't really be too much of a problem even if climate change is left unchecked, as Bjørn Lomborg says[1], it will only cost us 2-4% of GDP by end of century. > Civiliza…

> Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable I'd go as far as arguing that _everyone_ should prepare for what's coming. All of us will be affected, be it directly or indirectly, through things like the (most likely) inevitable refugee crisis, or increased food prices and lower standards of living. > but civilization itself has never, in history, colla…

> All of us will be affected

Actually, I'm pretty sure places like Greenland, Canada, Russia etc. will be mostly positively affected. I'm mostly concerned about the changes to the ocean when it comes to affecting all humans. The unfortunate reality is that unchecked global warming will probably lower food prices and increase standards of living in many places that are already rich, while causing destruction in places that are already relatively poor.

> alarm bells ringing about the climate...

The third option you left out is that the alarm is overinflated. With an issue as controversial as climate change, you can be almost certain that both the alarmists and skeptics are both wrong, and the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Also, I really don't think the end of the world is a realistic result of climate change. If you really want something to worry about, there are always meteors, gamma rays and the potential for nuclear war, superbugs, or biological WOMD.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#796

Post by r34 » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:28 AM UTC

jcmontx wrote: post #294

peterangular wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My market value is $10-15k/mo USD for just myself (sometimes more if I'm needed in an emergency). If you have a proven track record with a solid reputation you can command that sort of pay without an issue. I also bring a lot of general web development capability to the table, so selling on an easy-to-use interface also does a lot to add to my value. If you think about it - $35-40k for a 2-3 month dev timeline (which…

Solid comment. How do you deal with getting the knowledge of the process out of the people you are trying to leave without a job? That must be rough.

"Don't worry folks, our people are working on introducing basic income, so you'll have opportunity to develop in more important areas of your lives, instead of wasting time on such a meaningless activities." :)

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#797

Post by ahje » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:28 AM UTC

johnmorrison wrote: post #795

ahje wrote: post #787

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable I'd go as far as arguing that _everyone_ should prepare for what's coming. All of us will be affected, be it directly or indirectly, through things like the (most likely) inevitable refugee crisis, or increased food prices and lower standards of living. > but civilization itself has never, in history, colla…

> All of us will be affected Actually, I'm pretty sure places like Greenland, Canada, Russia etc. will be mostly positively affected. I'm mostly concerned about the changes to the ocean when it comes to affecting all humans. The unfortunate reality is that unchecked global warming will probably lower food prices and increase standards of living in many places that are already rich, while causing destruction in places…

> The third option you left out is that the alarm is overinflated.

I agree. I intended that to be implied as a possibility for the first option. Bad things will most likely happen, but it's unlikely that it's THAT bad.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#798

Post by chimprich » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:33 AM UTC

johnmorrison wrote: post #768

ahje wrote: post #728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Those still living in extreme poverty today probably don't care about our worries of climate disruption. No doubt about it. At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them, unless we somehow manage to achieve some magical global unity around a single goal. > I don't see why civilization would collapse any time soon Civilizational collapse is a slow process. I d…

> At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable / with severe barriers to life. This won't really be too much of a problem even if climate change is left unchecked, as Bjørn Lomborg says[1], it will only cost us 2-4% of GDP by end of century. > Civiliza…

> it will only cost us 2-4% of GDP by end of century

The projections suggest that it's much cheaper to avert climate change than to deal with the consequences, and much less painful.

If we can afford to lose x% of GDP dealing with the problems, why can't we spend less than that to avoid the problem, and avoid a huge amount of human misery and ecological collapse in the process?

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#799

Post by iabacu » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:52 AM UTC

dilippkumar wrote: post #470

I listened to Robert Green's talk at Google recently [0] He proposes the following idea: - Everybody born within 22 years of each other belong to a "generation" - Generations follow a cycle: - There is a rebellious generation - The next generation is trying to keep the ideals of the rebellious generation alive - The third generation is very conservative - The fourth generation is a "crisis" generation that will event…

> If the next generation is rebellious - and they end up being like the last rebellious generation - we are looking at 22 years of deep technological developments that will lead to the next big things in two generations from now.

Or quite the opposite. They’ll be anti-tech, like: let’s break up and impose limits to tech companies and research.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#800

Post by littlestymaar » Wed, Oct 23, 2019, 11:56 AM UTC

johnmorrison wrote: post #794

littlestymaar wrote: post #790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Humans will relocate, and lose a lot of wealth, but why would they die en mass? What a wonderful world you live in. Do you genuinely believe it's that simple? What do you think happens when 1 million people move from one country to another? They do not simply relocate, they are parked in camps (if you want current examples of that look at the Rohingya people, or Syrian refugees in Lebanon) until they can go back ho…

I feel you're conflating two different types of migration, and the issue isn't nearly as big as your 150 million deaths figure. Almost all countries have ample space that will still be habitable for their entire population in 2100, even if climate change is left unchecked. Those that don't represent a small portion of the global population, certainly less than 500 million people. I grew up in Botswana, and I know tha…

> Almost all countries have ample space that will still be habitable for their entire population in 2100, even if climate change is left unchecked

That's a really dubious one. There's multiple issues with global warming, drought and desertification being one of them (and it probably will not affect a whole country) but the second one is just the max temperature the human body can, withstand especially with high humidity. When this threshold is passed, you can have thousands of people dying at the same time in your country. When every summer, heatwaves take a few of your neighbours you start reconsidering how nice your country is.

Remember, we're going to have more than a 2°C increase in mean temperature by the end of the century, and maybe 4°C. 4°C is the difference between now and the last ice age when the whole Europe was covered by huge glaciers.

Also, many people live near shores, which will be damaged frequently as the see level rises… How would India, who have a borderline genocidal tendency (fantasised mostly at the moment buy still frightening) against Muslims nowadays, react to the massive arrival of Bengali people coming from Bangladesh after a typhoon destroyed their land?

> Italy is a tiny country in terms of land area, so why would they need to take so many?

Because that's where they arrive… I'm not speculating when I talk about Italy, this is happening right now (not 10 millions, but hundred of thousands).

> Anyways, my core point here is (a) we won't need to deal with this migration anyways, because we will solve climate change way before it becomes necessary, and (b) even if we didn't lower our emissions, I'm confident we can solve the migration problem without millions of deaths.

Regarding (a), you should probably read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_budget

Regarding (b), I admire your confidence, but it sounds delusional in regard of the whole human history.