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Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

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Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#781

Post by ReD_CoDE »

I think there are a lot of areas as the most promising

1. Digital Twin(s) -- Soon all people all around the world will have two worlds, one real and one virtual The virtual world would be like the next generation of Minecraft and people all around the world will work together on open-source projects, like what people do on Github but in a virtual n-Dimensional world

2. AI and Biotech --> See Yuval Noah Harari lectures on Youtube

3. Climate Change related activities

4. Fusion which is the next generation of renewable energy

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#782

Post by arnaudsm »

kostarelo wrote: post #779
arnaudsm wrote: post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a more scientific approach, the IPCC[1] models show we could see mass migrations between 200M and 1.5B due to climate change before the end of the century. Not a total collapse, but the collapse of a dozen of countries due to unsustainable heat and drought. [1] https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php%3Fi...

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Sorry for the broken link, Google URLs on mobile are a mess. Here's the link : https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php?id=...

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#784

Post by johnmorrison »

littlestymaar wrote: post #780
johnmorrison wrote: post #766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this is much more accurate of our best predictions. Bjørn Lomborg says[1] by the end of the century, climate change left unchecked will only lower the global GDP by a 2-4 percentage points of what it would have otherwise grown to , which is going to be 300-1000% higher than today. So basically, best case scenario 980% GDP growth, worst case 288% GDP growth. This shows climate change is a problem, but it's too sl…

This is an interesting answer. Somebody says there will be hundred millions of people fleeing their then uninhabitable countries (which will lead to millions of death, just look how many people drown in the Mediterranean see each year now, and how the European population is more xenophobic year after year). And you answer saying GDP will be fine!

You're right, GDP growth does not outweigh deaths. However I don't think the primary issues caused by climate disruption will be human deaths, but instead the loss of assets in compromised areas. Humans will relocate, and lose a lot of wealth, but why would they die en mass?

> fleeing their then uninhabitable countries ... which will lead to millions of death

I'm not sure if this is true, actually. What is true is that millions of people every year die due to air pollution, but this isn't climate change, it's just our present pollution.

There's like ~50 million deaths per year if I recall correctly, and I'd be very surprised if more than 0.1% of that is caused by climate change. At least 5% of it is due to pollution, though, and I think probably more like 10%+

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#785

Post by 50korangutang »

Thorentis wrote: post #572
el_dev_hell wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't blame them either. Why would you do home health when you can get similar pay working at a factory, warehouse, or, even, fast food. My mother was a nurse for years in the aged care sector. The pay for a qualified nurse is actually pretty good (I would still argue it should be higher for the work, but it was well above average). Homecare aids (or AIN/care assistants as they were called here) are paid horribly…

We are at a turning point in society right now because of all the things you address. In the last few decades have seen a rapid shift in the willingness of family members to look after their elderly. There's a few reasons for this, the biggest I think is the ageing population. When your parents need care at 85 years old, and you are 60 looking at retiring soon (or perhaps can't retire and need to work for another 7 y…

This is a good thing and is a mark of progress, it seems you're arguing we should lower wages and living/working standards so that people are willing to do these jobs. This is close to a backward and selfish line of thinking that 'people should be willing to do things for me for less money'.

Why should essential jobs like caring for people be paid so little compated to jobs that provide little value to society like banking and PR? It's essentially the 'Bullshit jobs' argument made by David Graeber

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#786

Post by teknologist »

johnmorrison wrote: post #775
eitland wrote: post #769

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. They are vey different. Those who arent aware of the large differences shouldn't comment as if they are they are subject experts. Telegram might be full of holes but it is a very different thing to Slack. (I use both for different things.) 2. I have my own issues with Telegram (the refusal to introduce sustainable funding, pushing of crypto currencies, possibly also marketing it as more than it is) but except that…

E2E encryption is kind of a fucky thing, some suggest it is fundamentally impossible for central web services and even mobile / desktop apps. Basically, if there is a third party involved in the code besides Alice and Bob, the two can never guarantee E2E encryption. Web part is simple, as there are countless ways you can get malicious code delivered from what you think is the correct, safe, web server. Same concept a…

Two words: Signal Protocol

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#787

Post by ahje »

johnmorrison wrote: post #768
ahje wrote: post #728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Those still living in extreme poverty today probably don't care about our worries of climate disruption. No doubt about it. At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them, unless we somehow manage to achieve some magical global unity around a single goal. > I don't see why civilization would collapse any time soon Civilizational collapse is a slow process. I d…

> At this point it's probably a better idea to start preparing for the changes rather than stopping them Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable / with severe barriers to life. This won't really be too much of a problem even if climate change is left unchecked, as Bjørn Lomborg says[1], it will only cost us 2-4% of GDP by end of century. > Civiliza…

> Yeah, this is probably best practice for people in regions that are projected to be left mostly uninhabitable

I'd go as far as arguing that _everyone_ should prepare for what's coming. All of us will be affected, be it directly or indirectly, through things like the (most likely) inevitable refugee crisis, or increased food prices and lower standards of living.

> but civilization itself has never, in history, collapsed

I meant individual civilizations and not civilization itself, although I read the original comment as something happening to "our" civilization and not all of them. Total collapse of civilization itself would require something cataclysmic happening on a global scale, and that the effects of said event are so severe that all of humanity fail to restore itself within the time span of several generations.

Some of the more alarmist reports about global warming are indeed pointing at that scenario, although it's more likely that progress will be slower, and that humanity as a whole will be able to adapt in the long run.

Regardless, I am convinced that even if we were talking about the actual end of civilization itself, it would not necessarily be evident to us until it was too late.

The fact that there are alarm bells ringing about the climate now is an indicator of climate changes being either:

a) survivable for humanity as a whole by doing what we can to prevent it and prepare for what happens if we fail

b) the end of the world and it's too late to do anything

This turned darker than I planned. :D

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#788

Post by sarahcone »

I think the alt credentialing space is extremely promising: that is, anything that solves the problem for employers "How do I know that this person is better than anyone else in the world at this problem set I need?" Without the usual leaps of faith and logic necessary to think a Harvard degree means that.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#789

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

turk73 wrote: post #624
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's important. After more than three decades in corporate life, I have "dropped out," and I'm working on doing stuff that makes me feel good. Being happy is a lot more important to me than toys; but I have a company that provides the kinds of toys I like to play with, anyway. I've been focusing on re-establishing my working engineering cred; mostly by creating a pretty vast portfolio of new, relevant projects. It wi…

I think you're missing a key ingredient--your network of colleagues. I don't think companies care that much about technical skills after a certain level. The way you get work is by having associates who know you and can get you in.

You are correct, but there's a couple of mitigating factors in this:

1) I have a fairly substantial network, but most of them know me as a manager, not a tech. I'm an excellent manager (people still ask me for advice), but I don't love it. I love being a coder.

2) Of the fairly substantial coding work I've done, almost all of the work (that I can talk about) was done for NPOs, as open-source for organizations that don't have a pot to pee in, so that network is a bit dicey for me.

I am doing something that is not usual. I'm reinventing myself in-place. I've done it before, but that was back when we actually respected folks with gray hair. Running into the ageism issue has been...enlightening.

I'm also not very good at pitches. I do demos; which means no pigs in pokes. I tend to not take the wraps off of things until they have reached the MVP stage, and I'm not particularly interested in getting funding.

I just want to do what I love: write code. I'm an excellent architect. My systems tend to last for decades, but that isn't really something that folks care about, and I understand that. I need to re-tool my architecture focus as well.

I have history writing demos that can't be ignored. I'll need to build a new network, but I can't do that until I have something to show (not talk about -SHOW).

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#790

Post by littlestymaar »

johnmorrison wrote: post #784
littlestymaar wrote: post #780

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an interesting answer. Somebody says there will be hundred millions of people fleeing their then uninhabitable countries (which will lead to millions of death, just look how many people drown in the Mediterranean see each year now, and how the European population is more xenophobic year after year). And you answer saying GDP will be fine!

You're right, GDP growth does not outweigh deaths. However I don't think the primary issues caused by climate disruption will be human deaths, but instead the loss of assets in compromised areas. Humans will relocate, and lose a lot of wealth, but why would they die en mass? > fleeing their then uninhabitable countries ... which will lead to millions of death I'm not sure if this is true, actually. What is true is th…

> Humans will relocate, and lose a lot of wealth, but why would they die en mass?

What a wonderful world you live in. Do you genuinely believe it's that simple?

What do you think happens when 1 million people move from one country to another? They do not simply relocate, they are parked in camps (if you want current examples of that look at the Rohingya people, or Syrian refugees in Lebanon) until they can go back home, as you can guess the sanitary situation of these camp is more than precarious (cholera is a big threat for instance). With climate change, their will be no way back, and it's not going to be one million of people, but hundred millions.

What do you think would happen if a country, let say Italy for instance, had to park 10 million people in camps for years? Don't you think people in camps would eventually revolt violently to get out? What would Italians do then? Don't you think European countries would anticipate this outcome and just block refugees from entering, shooting the one trying to? Because it's already in the political agenda of most far-right parties here in Europe, and most of them are not that far from power (Salvini and Orban and just the first of a long series coming…). Due to the fight against illegal immigration, there already been thousands (around 17 000) of death in the Mediterranean see since 2014. And you can be sure it's not going to be better when all central Africa is uninhabitable …

And when people fleeing their countries are not accepted (as in “parked”) in neighboring countries, they just wander in the wild until everyone is dead. That happened for instance to people fleeing Rwanda to Congo.

Large scale population migration are incredibly difficult, and they almost always go wrong, and least a bit. Expecting 1 to 10% of the refugees dying isn't that pessimistic. From the figures discussed earlier, that mean between 2 and 150 million death. Which comes in the same ballpark as the biggest humanitarian disaster of the 20th century…

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