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Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

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Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#671

Post by firstbabylonian »

dilippkumar wrote: post #470

I listened to Robert Green's talk at Google recently [0] He proposes the following idea: - Everybody born within 22 years of each other belong to a "generation" - Generations follow a cycle: - There is a rebellious generation - The next generation is trying to keep the ideals of the rebellious generation alive - The third generation is very conservative - The fourth generation is a "crisis" generation that will event…

Is this based on any historical data beyond the 20th century? Because the 20th century is not necessarily representative of the "standard" human nature. With all the wars, rapid technological advancements, globalisation, etc., we have created a different environment and different kind of people.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#672

Post by virgilp »

hugs wrote: post #610
ethbro wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone in this thread wants to talk RPA, I'm happy to talk your ear off. At this point, I've been doing it for... about 7 years? It's been an interesting ride. Email in profile

Would love to know more. How is RPA different than Selenium?

Kinda how Dropbox is different than rsync (imperfect analogy, but still pretty good I'd say)

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#673

Post by zelly »

jl2718 wrote: post #114

I see a huge trend coming in “DIY Medicine”. Doctors, insurers, and the FDA are way too expensive for mere gatekeeping, and technology is developing new treatments and dropping equipment costs an order of magnitude faster than they can respond. For example, I can buy all of the equipment necessary for a PRP injection for less than the cost of a single treatment, and the doctor that does it knows no more about how to…

I love this. If we have an alternate route for healthcare directly marketed to end users, that's a way around the insufferable healthcare monopoly. Healthcare piracy.

The average person who reads the first 10 pages of search results for their disease definitely knows more about it than their doctor. Doctors are smart, but medicine is huge and they aren't polymaths.

The obvious obstacle is that you legally cannot prescribe medicines without a medical license but hey who said the doctor has to physically be present or can't be a desperate Carribean med school graduate.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#675

Post by echelon »

ncmncm wrote: post #542
johnmorrison wrote: post #171

In the online world, it seems like there are two big things happening right now: - Neural networks / ML (eg GPT-2) Definitely nowhere near its potential for being applied to a wide variety of areas. Find a niche you like and apply there. - Security / Privacy (eg Telegram) Rapidly growing demand pretty much everywhere. Bonus points if you can make your product great for standard users and at the same time hackable/cus…

The most pressing problem for humanity is global climate disruption. Arguably, working on anything that doesn't help there is not just wasted effort, but actively harmful. Wind, solar power, energy storage still have huge room for improvement. Direct solar or wind -> liquid fuel will be essential to adapting fast. Windmills can drive production of liquid ammonia on farms (needing only air and water inputs), for use d…

> The most pressing problem for humanity is global climate disruption.

Our climate and ecology are certainly at risk, but I think the biggest threat in the world right now is the rapid rise of fascist China. They're challenging the notion that free speech and democracy are required for capitalism and economic gain.

China has grown so emboldened under President Xi that they're no longer content to just alter or buy out our media companies. They're flat out dictating marching orders to Western organizations and asking for employees that oppose their mandates to be fired. They're kidnapping foreign nationals and holding them hostage on trumped up charges. They've grown beyond stealing our ideas - now they're trying to supplant them.

That doesn't even begin to capture the things they're doing within their own borders. Surveillance state, social credit, travel limitations, Uyghur detention camps, supposed organ harvesting, Hong Kong / Tibet / Taiwan, ... In China it's actually 1984, and they're teaching the world that it works. If they win this battle, I worry we might wind up facing similar prospects in our future.

> Without massive progress in the next decade, civilization will probably collapse by 2035.

That's a little bit overblown. Want to make a bet on longbets.org? I'll happily donate to a green cause.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#676

Post by abledon »

yellowapple wrote: post #626
dilippkumar wrote: post #470

I listened to Robert Green's talk at Google recently [0] He proposes the following idea: - Everybody born within 22 years of each other belong to a "generation" - Generations follow a cycle: - There is a rebellious generation - The next generation is trying to keep the ideals of the rebellious generation alive - The third generation is very conservative - The fourth generation is a "crisis" generation that will event…

It's more likely that every generation is all of the above - or more precisely, every generation goes through phases where one or more of those might apply. Every generation will believe that the older generations are stupid and short-sighted, then as that generation gets older it will believe that the younger generations are stupid and short-sighted. Every generation will think the older generations are backwards an…

i liked the soft pastels, 'cozy' home decor, and simple garb of the 90s.. People are trying to make their houses look like the inside of a friggin iphone box today ~ 'architectural minimalism'.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#677

Post by jl2718 »

dr_ wrote: post #268
jl2718 wrote: post #114

I see a huge trend coming in “DIY Medicine”. Doctors, insurers, and the FDA are way too expensive for mere gatekeeping, and technology is developing new treatments and dropping equipment costs an order of magnitude faster than they can respond. For example, I can buy all of the equipment necessary for a PRP injection for less than the cost of a single treatment, and the doctor that does it knows no more about how to…

"Doctors know that the price of the most effective treatments may not sustain their profession." This is not really a fair assessment. The most cost effective treatments can be self administered. But if you are coming in to see me because of persistent knee pain, more often that not you have already tried tylenol and over the counter nsaids (ibuprofen, etc.), and your pain has been persistent. The next set of treatme…

I was including the price of the ultrasound imaging machine. And I’m not talking about Tylenol either, which is a harmful and oversubscribed drug anyway. Example: I’ve been given a choice: surgery that includes removal of hip cartilage, or nothing. But there are many natural growth factors that have shown excellent cartilage regeneration. PRP wouldn’t be among my first choices, but as an example, it’s better than nothing, better than surgery, and the FDA can’t make my own blood illegal. The two surgeries I did get elsewhere were terrible and didn’t really solve the problem. There are other cheap options for regenerative injections, and they are extremely common among elite and professional athletes. They are also used extensively by large animal vets, and it turns out that there’s nothing I need that a race horse doesn’t, but it’s legal for him and not for me. Diagnostics also, a huge area for free market expansion. The cost of an MRI is dropping below the cost of a copay. And most of all, it’s a question of value added by doctors, which is mostly informational, and as with all information commodities, rapidly dropping to zero. In my vision of the future, I decide what I want, and I pay for it. Simple.

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#678

Post by thebigspacefuck »

dilippkumar wrote: post #470

I listened to Robert Green's talk at Google recently [0] He proposes the following idea: - Everybody born within 22 years of each other belong to a "generation" - Generations follow a cycle: - There is a rebellious generation - The next generation is trying to keep the ideals of the rebellious generation alive - The third generation is very conservative - The fourth generation is a "crisis" generation that will event…

This sounds like Strauss-Howe generational theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theo...

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#679

Post by K0SM0S »

dilippkumar wrote: post #470

I listened to Robert Green's talk at Google recently [0] He proposes the following idea: - Everybody born within 22 years of each other belong to a "generation" - Generations follow a cycle: - There is a rebellious generation - The next generation is trying to keep the ideals of the rebellious generation alive - The third generation is very conservative - The fourth generation is a "crisis" generation that will event…

He was probably drawing from the Strauss-Howe generational theory[1], which is more than 20 years old now. He (or you) should have credited the original thinkers for these ideas. Their 1997 book "The Fourth Turning" is considered pseudoscience but nonetheless great food for thought, imho.

Note that the cycle may sometimes be shorter (3 gens) or longer (5). It's not really a theory, more like empirical observation. Unfortunately, it has no predictive power whatsoever, so it's just that, food for thought.

Edit: Interestingly, it came out almost at about the same time as Huttington's "Clash of the Civilizations"[2], and a number of interesting scenarios from Shell[3][4] and the CIA (link?), which notably informed Clinton's push for global democracy — all these studies concurred, at the time, that positive disruption was a plausible scenario.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_Civilizations

[3]: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-futur...

[4]: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-futur...

Re: Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?

#680

Post by mb_72 »

echelon wrote: post #675
ncmncm wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most pressing problem for humanity is global climate disruption. Arguably, working on anything that doesn't help there is not just wasted effort, but actively harmful. Wind, solar power, energy storage still have huge room for improvement. Direct solar or wind -> liquid fuel will be essential to adapting fast. Windmills can drive production of liquid ammonia on farms (needing only air and water inputs), for use d…

> The most pressing problem for humanity is global climate disruption. Our climate and ecology are certainly at risk, but I think the biggest threat in the world right now is the rapid rise of fascist China. They're challenging the notion that free speech and democracy are required for capitalism and economic gain. China has grown so emboldened under President Xi that they're no longer content to just alter or buy ou…

> Our climate and ecology are certainly at risk, but I think the biggest threat in the world right now is the rapid rise of fascist China. They're challenging the notion that free speech and democracy are required for capitalism and economic gain.

That is exactly my main concern in the modern age also. Other countries are already interested in China's technology: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-23/sixth-world-internet-...

'Countries looking to crackdown on dissent and the spread of information — like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, Laos, Serbia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — have already signed up to China's "digital silk road".'

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