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Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

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Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#241
I've lived through the dot-com burst, 4 recessions, 3 stock implosions, 3 personal tragedies, and more mergers and acquisitions than I can remember. I have written millions of lines of code and have never missed a day of work.

It has had nothing to do with choice of technology, industry, physical location, contacts, or luck (I think).

The only common denominator I can cite is finding out what people (customers or employers) really need, figuring out how to build it for them, consistently building it, and staying friendly and helpful throughout.

Do that and nothing else matters. Don't do that and keep worrying about it. It's that simple.

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#242

I spent two years welding ships together at the shipyards in San Diego. Yay fallback skills! There are times when I miss it. Of all the jobs I've had over the years, it was the most meritocratic. If you did your job well and didn't cause too much rework, they loved you. I don't miss the hazardous/chemically toxic work environment, though. Those two years felt like a decade of wear on my body.

didn't you wear any protection?

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#243
post #238

Offered in the spirit of "don't believe everything you hear": I went into university and graduated during the post-bust winter. The few adults I knew, plus the Wall Street Journal, were unanimous in their opinion that engineering as a field was done in the United States and that all future hiring of software developers would happen in Asia. I got on a plane to Japan immediately after graduation. It's been a fun and f…

People are still telling me this just last year. Met a couple of software developers that I believe worked at one of the more traditional large corps. Over the next half an hour or so they kept telling me about how software is a dead end career and all the jobs are going to go off shore soon. They seemed super depressed about their future prospects. No amount of me talking about career (and compensation) prospects of…

Maybe if they’re not doing their jobs properly, but even if their company is sending pretty much all jobs off-shore they still need someone to verify the quality of the contributions from those people, and that’s where your job will be.

Besides, my big company is starting to bring more and more jobs on-shore again after finding out that doing it all off-shore doesn’t actually work.

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#244
I worked for a tech support and CS outsourcing company. I was developing the tools they would use for call logging and associated things.

They were growing rapidly by offering support services to all the new dot com startups. Hours were long, the pay was decent and my head was being fried by having to juggle multiple tech platforms and languages thanks to the differing requirements of the clients.

Then came the bust. Within a matter of months we went from having 2000 support people on site to just 400. To survive the company started targeting non dot com clients. For the most part that meant providing CS support for companies like utilities and retail stores. Standards went downhill and ethics became something other companies thought about. We also lost our on-site subsidised canteen.

One of our post bust clients was Comet, the now defunct UK electrical store. We provided technical support for their extended warranty holders. One of the requirements that they insisted upon was requiring the customer to attempt a full re-install of Windows before agreeing to send out an engineer. I thought this was dodgy AF, especially since the support staff were so untrained. They were making customers reformat their drives because they didn't know how to change the keyboard layout from US to UK. Part of the support staffs training was to be told that the DOG debug tool could fix noisy hard drive and they would ask callers to use it to destroy and recreate the FAT. For an IT support company they knew very little. Their head of training, who had no formal IT training of his own, had some crazy ideas about to fix computers.

One day I got a phone call and the caller introduced herself as "Hi, I'm xxx xxxx and I'm a researcher from BBC Watchdog, just to let you know I'm recording this call and it may be broadcast". While I was trying frantically to flag down a manager, the caller was demanding that I answer questions about an 85 year old WWII veteran who spent 10 years scanning photos of his army friends only to lose all his work because someone told him to reinstall Windows. I didn't usually get phone calls seeing as I was an in-house dev, what happened that day was that the everyone else had been told not to answer the number Watchdog called from (there was previous) and the phone system bounced the call around until muggins here picked it up.

I left soon after that.

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#245
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did you learn?

Several things: - Any news about a "recovery" has nothing to do with the reality you are likely facing. - The worst of it is in the long-tail, not necessarily the initial shock. - The change in the market from, "We can grow our way out of anything!" to, "Quick! Circle the wagons and lay low." happens a lot more suddenly than you expect, but there are also warning signs. - You're super valuable and totally super emplo…

- Value the team not the employer, you might meet them again elsewhere, while the employer might fire you at the first crisis.

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#246
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scania, the truck manufacturer, did this during 08-09. 10% paycut, 20% time reduction and they encouraged people to use the time to study and improve. None were laid off.

Much of this is not due to goodwill of owners, but unions.

A pay cut would be an "over my dead body" issue for many unions.

Edit: Since this apparently does not go without saying, the feedback loops in a union are all wrong for taking that kind of risk (remember, the pay cut does not guarantee company survival). People willing to rock the boat with calculated gambles like that do not rise to positions of authority in a union.

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#247
In threads discussing career paths there seems to be an implicit assumption that everyone has agency and the ability to make their own decisions and results are simply a matter of choosing the right advice to listen to and doing the work you need to do at each step of the way. If we were discussing career paths in the context of wealth the assumption would be that nobody has agency and everyone is just a product of the environment they were born into and what you do is predetermined.

So which is is guys? Can we actually choose are own career paths or are we just pissing in the wind here?

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#248

I went through it, and started a company soon after it crashed and then a couple more during the downturn. Ironically a lot of money can be made in downturns if you know where to look and how to approach it. What I saw and experienced was enterprise devs basically just kept doing what they did. Startup devs that could went into (or back in some cases) to enterprises. Enterprises used it as an opportunity to snag up g…

> To be fair, true developers were not really negatively affected at least not more so than other professions. My anecdote is the opposite: My father was an engineer at a company that made machines for semiconductor manufacturing. They had a physical product, customers liked them, they sold each machine at a profit - none of the obvious-with-hindsight folly of companies like Pets.com. However, when the dot-com bust h…

One more note for your first lesson: you might have a hot product that you sell at a product, but your own salespeople can kill you.

Lucent (AT&T spun them off to commercialize things from Bell Labs) had the absolute best product of the late 90s/early 2000: the Ascend MAX DSLAM/modem bank. Before that, an ISP needed T1 phone lines (24 channels) plugged into a CSU plugged into 24 modems plugged into a chassis that would emit serial that would be plugged into a router, along with a server that would do authentication and logging for billing and IP assignment. The Ascend MAX turned all of that into one box: phone connections to ethernet and all services provided and remotely administrated. Insanely great.

The problem was that Lucent's salespeople were very good, and the market for new ISPs was huge -- everybody was starting one or expanding their available markets -- so Lucent started offering financing.

When you finance your house or car, your loan is backed by the asset: the house or car still has some large percentage of the loan value at any given time, even with depreciation.

When you finance your ISP equipment purchase, Lucent assumed that they could always repo the MAX and sell it at a discount to some other growing ISP.

They didn't count on the ISP market collapsing.

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#249
post #26

It was a rough point in time. In the dot com boom, people who could rub two lines of visual basic (for applications) were getting jobs. If you did not like your job, you could make a phone call and have a few offers waiting for you by the end of the day. Glorious stock options at promising startups after fleecing larger companies in panics about y2k and missing the boom. The parties and travel... We were joking about…

> people who could rub two lines of visual basic (for applications) were getting jobs

If one can put two sensible lines of VBA that solves a particular problem (e.g. in Excel or whatever context), I believe such person has enough knowledge to not to be unemployable, even today. We are not talking about mid/high six figures - there are plenty of jobs in-between.

Re: Ask HN: How was life for a regular dev during the dot com burst?

#250

I went through it, and started a company soon after it crashed and then a couple more during the downturn. Ironically a lot of money can be made in downturns if you know where to look and how to approach it. What I saw and experienced was enterprise devs basically just kept doing what they did. Startup devs that could went into (or back in some cases) to enterprises. Enterprises used it as an opportunity to snag up g…

>Ironically a lot of money can be made in downturns if you know where to look and how to approach it. Can you expand on this? I'm honestly curious about what machinations begin once a company dies or the market sinks.

Others already mentioned some keys.

But a couple key things change (many more do too these are two I look for), yes capital is harder to come by, or at least requires better fundamentals and connections but the overall market is in a selling mood (e.g. good buying market). So enterprises and healthy businesses are looking for things to buy on the cheap (which is relative to the high of the market), and how to expand cost effectively. There is of course a cool down period that you have to get through before this starts happening.

Enterprises after they snap up their initial FTE roles they need to fill start looking for a lot more consultants to fill project roles versus bringing on more FTE's. This opens up more consulting gigs at pretty favorable pricing usually. You can now hire people to expand a consulting practice because people are less expensive so you can grow when things are "down" for others.

When the air pops out of the system people also get discouraged from the market and run away. A lot of the speculators will back out and so it becomes a more sane environment for a few years. If you are a developer and just work through it as things recover you change jobs a couple of times and you can really jump your salary during the recovery because there is a time when demand becomes super high but supply again is low. This also is again where it is awesome to be a consultant, I kept increasing the rates for my company all through the downturn and people would pay.

Outside of tech a downturn is usually time to capitalize on real estate, rentals and a host of other things. But you have to set yourself up to do this usually a little before things take a full slide into that first year. But if you are relatively debt free and can take some debt on during the down point of the market on real estate you can make a lot of money on the upswing. To be clear, real estate may not crash at the same time or rate, or may not at all. But the demands for rentals vs buying changes as does the buying power of people, so you can leverage those both.

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