The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010) • Hacker News Board

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#161

Post by simonh » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 6:41 AM UTC

throwaway_bad wrote: post #119

mdorazio wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your last sentence is perhaps the most important - timing the "Toys to Big Thing" transition is really hard and leaves a lot of dead companies in its wake. For example, at some point in the future, VR and AR will probably be in this category, but who knows how long it will actually take (basically-modern VR has been around since the 80s!) or what will cause the shift. Meanwhile, VR has left a decades-long tra…

Augmented reality is a great example. Everyone knows that it will become a "Big Thing" in the future. Like why would smartphones be the final form factor of personal computing? Of course there will be something that will dethrone it. But despite every big company throwing a couple billions at the problem for the last few years (Facebook's $2 billion acquisition of oculus, Google's $500 million investment into Magic L…

I think there’s a very good chance the smartphone will be the dominant form factor essentially forever. Anything smaller won’t be good for presenting visual information, and when you don’t need it, it isn’t stuck to your face.

Alternatively taking a long view, how many times do you think the dominant form factor of personal computers (in the general sense, including smart phones) will change? Another 3 times, another 5? Every 20 years forever?

The only exception I can think of is a direct neural link, but that’s generations away and even then I’m not entirely convinced. Maybe in the very long term.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#162

Post by ivalm » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 6:43 AM UTC

noxer wrote: post #108

westoncb wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Exchanging data for value will be normal and young people will ask how it ever could work without that. How is this different from using a credit card to e.g. purchase a streaming movie? Is it just more seamless? Or does the fact that there isn't a centralized bank behind the transaction somehow significant for the consumer or business? (I'm really just trying to understand this btw) > Kids will aks if it's true th…

In short credit cards do not move value at all. You authorize payment instructions. Which in turn leads to balances being adjusted. It's basically a debt transaction instead of a value transaction. It has several advantages like that banks can adjust balances for a specific time with many parties and then calculate the effective difference (a lot will cancel each other out) and only settle the real differences. There…

First, loans create deposits. It is a (short-term) loan for the purchaser but it creates a real deposit for the seller. In as much as you equate "value" with exchange medium (money/crypto) then credit cards create value out of thin air (the purchaser still has his deposit AND the seller gains a deposit, all the while their deposits enable the loans by the bank). The fact that we have more than one bank and real settling between banks doesn't reflect the minutia of actual transaction is irrelevant.

In terms of "who pays," well, I doubt people who currently don't pay will somehow decide to pay while free services remain available (even if at the cost of getting targeted ads/loss of privacy). If anything, right to be targeted is the real "value" that is being (and presumably will continue to be) exchanged.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#163

Post by QuinnWilton » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 6:45 AM UTC

simonh wrote: post #161

throwaway_bad wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Augmented reality is a great example. Everyone knows that it will become a "Big Thing" in the future. Like why would smartphones be the final form factor of personal computing? Of course there will be something that will dethrone it. But despite every big company throwing a couple billions at the problem for the last few years (Facebook's $2 billion acquisition of oculus, Google's $500 million investment into Magic L…

I think there’s a very good chance the smartphone will be the dominant form factor essentially forever. Anything smaller won’t be good for presenting visual information, and when you don’t need it, it isn’t stuck to your face. Alternatively taking a long view, how many times do you think the dominant form factor of personal computers (in the general sense, including smart phones) will change? Another 3 times, another…

> You could use glasses, but not everyone wants to wear them.

What about contact lenses?

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#164

Post by TACIXAT » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 7:01 AM UTC

dahdum wrote: post #89

alasdair_ wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see curren-gen VR and AR games leading to next-gen "real AR" glasses with an impact on far more than just gaming.

I see AR as having an enormous future impact, games only a small fraction of that. We jumped at the chance to escape reality into our phones, but AR is far more seductive. VR limits your mobility, but AR can be used every waking hour. I see it starting with small tweaks to reality...a dingy concrete sidewalk replaced with a golden brick road. Empty walls in an apartment awash with art, scenic views, and/or entertainm…

I look forward to my golden brick road speckled with syringes and human feces.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#165

Post by mozey » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 7:23 AM UTC

QuinnWilton wrote: post #163

simonh wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there’s a very good chance the smartphone will be the dominant form factor essentially forever. Anything smaller won’t be good for presenting visual information, and when you don’t need it, it isn’t stuck to your face. Alternatively taking a long view, how many times do you think the dominant form factor of personal computers (in the general sense, including smart phones) will change? Another 3 times, another…

> You could use glasses, but not everyone wants to wear them. What about contact lenses?

Contact lenses are a pita. I suspect it's going to be a smartphone-like form factor combined with a voice UI similar to the movie Her from 2013. Eventually the visuals on the phone screen will be replaced with a neural link. It would make sense if the implant is just a dumb antenna, combined with a removable "earbud" that connects it to the computing device.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#166

Post by vermilingua » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 7:24 AM UTC

QuinnWilton wrote: post #163

simonh wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there’s a very good chance the smartphone will be the dominant form factor essentially forever. Anything smaller won’t be good for presenting visual information, and when you don’t need it, it isn’t stuck to your face. Alternatively taking a long view, how many times do you think the dominant form factor of personal computers (in the general sense, including smart phones) will change? Another 3 times, another…

> You could use glasses, but not everyone wants to wear them. What about contact lenses?

Yes because contacts are an absolute pleasure in comparison to glasses.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#167

Post by cbhl » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 7:24 AM UTC

NeoBasilisk wrote: post #115

mdorazio wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your last sentence is perhaps the most important - timing the "Toys to Big Thing" transition is really hard and leaves a lot of dead companies in its wake. For example, at some point in the future, VR and AR will probably be in this category, but who knows how long it will actually take (basically-modern VR has been around since the 80s!) or what will cause the shift. Meanwhile, VR has left a decades-long tra…

ehhhhh I would disagree with your statement that "basically-modern VR has been around since the 80s." It really seems like this phase of VR really began with the release of the Oculus Rift DK1. Sure there had been earlier prototypes floating around, but they weren't taken seriously.

The game changer between the 80's VR and 10's VR is basically the smartphone. In the old days, folks were hooking up big bulky CRTs to their face. Now we have cheap flat panel displays as a commodity.

But there are still more technical problems to solve before the killer application and corresponding headset will be cheap, useful, and lightweight enough for mass adoption.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#168

Post by kgraves » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 7:25 AM UTC

xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

Evan Speigel admittedly said this about Snapchat [0] (2014):

"When we first started working on Snapchat in 2011, it was just a toy. In many ways it still is – but to quote [Charles] Eames, 'Toys are not really as innocent as they look. Toys and games are preludes to serious ideas.' "

[0] https://www.snap.com/en-GB/news/post/2014-axs-partner-summit...

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#169

Post by rimliu » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 7:46 AM UTC

throwaway_bad wrote: post #119

mdorazio wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your last sentence is perhaps the most important - timing the "Toys to Big Thing" transition is really hard and leaves a lot of dead companies in its wake. For example, at some point in the future, VR and AR will probably be in this category, but who knows how long it will actually take (basically-modern VR has been around since the 80s!) or what will cause the shift. Meanwhile, VR has left a decades-long tra…

Augmented reality is a great example. Everyone knows that it will become a "Big Thing" in the future. Like why would smartphones be the final form factor of personal computing? Of course there will be something that will dethrone it. But despite every big company throwing a couple billions at the problem for the last few years (Facebook's $2 billion acquisition of oculus, Google's $500 million investment into Magic L…

I, for one, do not know that AR will become a "Big Thing". It is fine for some applications, but not enough to be Big.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#170

Post by monadgonad » Tue, Oct 22, 2019, 8:30 AM UTC

vermilingua wrote: post #166

QuinnWilton wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could use glasses, but not everyone wants to wear them. What about contact lenses?

Yes because contacts are an absolute pleasure in comparison to glasses.

You're thinking very small-picture here. Contacts can be improved upon somewhat if we have the technology to make them into full AR screens.