Aren’t atomic bombs a counter example to this? Though maybe an example that proves the trend. There’s a strong connection between nuclear power failures and political push back.
The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
141–150 of 209 posts
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#142kubernetes didn't start out looking like a toy. nor did tensorflow or kafka nor ipod / iphone nor spacex nor tesla unless looks like a toy is relative to the incumbents, but not to the population at large.
In “Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World” the toy as predictor concept is explored more deeply.
The emphasis is less on the implementation of the toy than on the popularity of the style of play or human amusement that the toy enables. Then over time various technologies come along to implement the mode of play. Eventually someone says, wow that might help in serious adult activity X. And then disruption.
Kubernetes, Tensorflow, Kafka, Falcon 9, iPhone, and Model S aren’t toys.
Video game AI, model rockets, iPod (limited to music playback), and RC cars are toys that predicted these modern, serious adult innovations.
The toy as predictor theory doesn’t require that all technologies begin as toys. So maybe Kubernetes & Kafka don’t fit (I can’t think of a relevant toy).
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Exchanging data for value will be normal and young people will ask how it ever could work without that. How is this different from using a credit card to e.g. purchase a streaming movie? Is it just more seamless? Or does the fact that there isn't a centralized bank behind the transaction somehow significant for the consumer or business? (I'm really just trying to understand this btw) > Kids will aks if it's true th…
Legacy payments network is a dumpster fire. It works but just barely. Crypto is much cleaner and will take it over eventually, give it time.
Cryptocurrency seems like the inverse of the internet revolution to me.
Internetworking realized the vast potential of all the computers in the world. They could do so much more if talking to each other.
Crypto via "proof of work" takes all the unused computing capacity everywhere and creates an incentive to waste it.
What it seems like to me is a hybrid virus that uses both human minds and machines to spread and suck up resources.
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#144Remember 3D TV?
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can see curren-gen VR and AR games leading to next-gen "real AR" glasses with an impact on far more than just gaming.
Most VR/AR development activity I've seen seems to be about (industrial) training.
Where it would be most definitely not a toy after a few iterations.
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
Would you call Bitcoin a "toy"? If so, it really is just saying that it is likely to be something you are initially dismissive of.
World of Warcraft Gold & similar in-game currencies are toys. Bitcoin is not a toy, but follows in the footsteps of those toys (in addition to traditional currencies).
Bitcoin started off as a toy, with 10,000 being exchanged for a pizza once. Ethereum smart contracts, even ones dealing with cryto-asset-exchange, are often treated as toys
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
Remember the PC revolution. Altair was a toy. Atari 2600 was a toy. TRS-80, Sinclair Spectrum, Apple II — all toys. Amiga was almost not a toy, and Aople Macintosh and IBM PC were mostly not toys anymore. From there on, businesses started to use massive amounts of PCs, thanks to killer apps like word processors and spreadsheets. Prices fell, home users took note, and a real explosion began. It took mere 20 years, say…
In that 20 years the hardware and software exponentially grew in capacity and decreased greatly in cost. Computers turned into something you’d want in your pocket once they could be unobtrusive enough to be tolerable with you all day. On that note, who knows what would AR require in order to take off. It probably needs to be something you can get 80% of the killer features without wearing glasses. It also needs to su…
I've read about contact lenses that used super—tiny LEDs to produce a focused overlay image in the eye.
It of course had a large external induction coil to power it, and very low resolution.
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#148Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
Legacy payments network is a dumpster fire. It works but just barely. Crypto is much cleaner and will take it over eventually, give it time.
This is an example of what I meant by speculating on a growth story. 1994 Internet let you talk to people and exchange information around the world — things that you couldn’t do before. 2019 cryptocurrency lets you pay for something, sort of, not really, but will be very clean one day — never mind that millions are already paying for things and sending money because “it’s a dumpster fire”.
> 1994 Internet let you talk to people and exchange information around the world — things that you couldn’t do before.
You could. There were phones and snail mail after all, weren't there?
They were slow an expensive just like wire transfers between US and EU bank accounts are: 2-3 workdays and a $35-45 fee to move around a few bytes in existing financial messaging systems. Pure madness.
Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)
#150Onions (Tor)
Darkmarkets which are Onions are a big thing which were just for LARPing in the past.
But the next big thing 10 years ago was Uber which was not a toy. It didn't sneak. It smashed regulatory bodies and corrupt monopolies as people cheered. People really don't understand it's also changed the fabric of society. It's far easier to see in developing countries.
What is the real insight we can use here?
It's probably more, some toys will become big, but it's hard to think of examples. Bitcoin has only gone from a toy, to a toy people can see will leave the toy stage.