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The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

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Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#91

Post by oscargrouch »

myth_buster wrote: post #76

This was my thought regarding Google's Soli chip[0] when I saw comments talking about it's usability limited to cooking or other fringe cases. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21269877

The chip has potential to change the way we live, but this potential will only become reality when proper applications and bussiness models create really useful stuff around it.

I think seeing this tech as disruptive somehow is kind of obvious, but to change our lifes upside down it needs much more.

The same can be said about 3D printing. It has a lot of potential, but timing + the right ecosystem around it is also a big deal.

Apple with Newton, MS and specially Palm were there first for the pocket computer + phone, but why only with the iPhone things started to really happen?

The right bet + timing + ecosystem around it is also pretty important.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#92

Post by l_t »

aazaa wrote: post #33

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…

This makes me wonder, though.

I wonder if you went back to the very earliest days of the WWW, did everyone see it as a toy? Or were there already people (those developing it, perhaps) who saw that it had awesome non-toy potential?

I suspect people brand new tech as "toys" when they're not, and I bet there's also developers that take their toys and call them products :)

Maybe the solution is to completely discard the "toy" / "non-toy" dichotomy. It seems like it just muddies the discussion when the important thing is to evaluate the actual merits of the product/technology in question.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#93

Post by tonyarkles »

grumpy8 wrote: post #42

I have a question for those who were there at the very beginning of the internet. I heard that many were skeptical about both personal computers and the internet.. did it feel the same as it does right now with crypto-currency/quantum-computing? I wasn't there, but on my side, it feels like people were able to use internet right from the beginning, whereas there's a bigger leap to using crypto/quantum. Is it just tha…

Your question tickled something really interesting for me. Here's a brief timeline from my own life:

1991 - I am 8 years old and am learning to program BASIC on a Vic-20

1992 - My family gets an XT-class machine (640kB of RAM!)

1993 - NCSA Mosaic is released.

1994 - An Internet Cafe opens in my small town of 35,000. Using library books, I manage to find cool software to download onto 5 1/4" floppies and bring home.

1995 - I get my first C compiler (Power C) and start programming my own games (still on my XT). I start spending time at a local LAN gaming place, wishing for a better computer.

1997 - my family gets a Pentium 133, dial-up Internet, and shortly thereafter I discover Linux. I also build a 386 from parts that I scrounge up.

1999 - I get a job working at the LAN shop as a tech. The company has shifted to being a PC Hardware and repair shop.

2000 - I get 1.5mbit DSL at home, build my own Celeron 433, and dive way deeper into programming.

Crypto-currency first showed up around, what, 2010 or so? In those 9 years, I don't think there's been anywhere near the kind of (pardon the pun) quantum leap we had technology- and utility-wise in the 90s.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#94

Post by marcosdumay »

l_t wrote: post #92
aazaa wrote: post #33

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…

This makes me wonder, though. I wonder if you went back to the very earliest days of the WWW, did everyone see it as a toy? Or were there already people (those developing it, perhaps) who saw that it had awesome non-toy potential? I suspect people brand new tech as "toys" when they're not, and I bet there's also developers that take their toys and call them products :) Maybe the solution is to completely discard the…

> I wonder if you went back to the very earliest days of the WWW, did everyone see it as a toy?

The WWW that was created to share scientific papers? Or you mean the GP's Internet that was created to organize the US troops on the event of a nuclear strike?

I guess so, there was plenty of people aware they were not toys. Most of those people did use them as toys most of the times, like everybody else at the time, but the toy classification was mostly from uninformed people and trolls.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#95

Post by GordonS »

l_t wrote: post #92
aazaa wrote: post #33

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…

This makes me wonder, though. I wonder if you went back to the very earliest days of the WWW, did everyone see it as a toy? Or were there already people (those developing it, perhaps) who saw that it had awesome non-toy potential? I suspect people brand new tech as "toys" when they're not, and I bet there's also developers that take their toys and call them products :) Maybe the solution is to completely discard the…

Random, single data point 80's person here.

Compuserve, AOL and newsgroups were already big when I discovered the www - Compuserve and newsgroups seemed vastly superior to me at the time.

Netscape Navigator seemed so basic, and how would anyone know which URLs to use (discoverability)? I chuckled, wrote it off, and stuck with what I knew.

Well, I was just a little bit wrong :)

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#96

Post by seibelj »

westoncb wrote: post #85
noxer wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>With cryptocurrency, there's nothing new or interesting you can actually do, no meaningful human connections to be made. It's just speculating on a made-up growth story, like penny stocks you can trade 24/7 — but we already had penny stocks and boiler room scams. You really should look into that tech (Blockchain, DLT) a bit deeper. This sounds exactly like the "It's just a toy it's never gonna change the world." tha…

> Exchanging data for value will be normal and young people will ask how it ever could work without that. How is this different from using a credit card to e.g. purchase a streaming movie? Is it just more seamless? Or does the fact that there isn't a centralized bank behind the transaction somehow significant for the consumer or business? (I'm really just trying to understand this btw) > Kids will aks if it's true th…

Legacy payments network is a dumpster fire. It works but just barely. Crypto is much cleaner and will take it over eventually, give it time.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#97

Post by Izkata »

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #88
cookingrobot wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this test, is Lego the next big thing?

If Lego blocks were bigger and all building codes and regulations were removed and zoning could be eliminated, then yes absolutely legos would be the next big thing that could upend the entire multi trillion dollar housing market. Imagine the enormous societal wealth creation, if anyone could build a house with the same ease (and lack of regulations) of building a website. of course, these hypothetical legos would ne…

Brikawood homes

https://www.simplemost.com/houses-made-wooden-lego-like-bric...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ierqMW_FxfE

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#98

Post by hndamien »

xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

Would you call Bitcoin a "toy"? If so, it really is just saying that it is likely to be something you are initially dismissive of.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#99

Post by minitoar »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #73
guptaneil wrote: post #67

If you're hung up on the word "toy," another way of phrasing this is the next big thing will look like just a hobby to most people. Looking forward, smart homes and 3D printing are 2 industries that fall in this bucket. Both feel like toys to the majority of the market right now, but have the potential to completely change how we live. 3D printing - low-cost manufacturing has completely revolutionized what's possible…

Before smart homes are more than just a toy, they need to have functionality that is actually time saving. I've messed with smart home stuff and so far the only thing that has been useful beyond being a toy is our robot vacuum, which I'm not sure is really classified as a smart home thing. As someone that lives in California, something that could be an actual $$ and time saver rather than just a toy is if I could hav…

which I'm not sure is really classified as a smart home thing.

This is amusing to me, I think as soon as something becomes somewhat common it will no longer be classified as "smart home". Sort of like how the definition of AI is a moving target.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#100

Post by [deleted] »

grumpy8 wrote: post #42

I have a question for those who were there at the very beginning of the internet. I heard that many were skeptical about both personal computers and the internet.. did it feel the same as it does right now with crypto-currency/quantum-computing? I wasn't there, but on my side, it feels like people were able to use internet right from the beginning, whereas there's a bigger leap to using crypto/quantum. Is it just tha…

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