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The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

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Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#71

Post by thaumasiotes »

DannyB2 wrote: post #53
cookingrobot wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this test, is Lego the next big thing?

The real test, I think, is something that has genuinely useful applications to anyone with a little bit of vision. Big entrenched players are unable to see the next big thing, because they see the world through the glasses of their successful business. Microsoft for example almost missed the internet, and suddenly realized it in 1995. I believe Bill Gates was quoted as saying it was just a fad. The funny thing is tha…

> Smart phones sold in unit volumes that dwarfed PC unit volumes.

Popcorn sold in unit volumes even higher than that, but so what? These aren't comparable things.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#72

Post by starpilot »

guptaneil wrote: post #67

If you're hung up on the word "toy," another way of phrasing this is the next big thing will look like just a hobby to most people. Looking forward, smart homes and 3D printing are 2 industries that fall in this bucket. Both feel like toys to the majority of the market right now, but have the potential to completely change how we live. 3D printing - low-cost manufacturing has completely revolutionized what's possible…

The thing is a hobby isn't too different from a business. They can even be hard to distinguish: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/hobby-or-business-irs-offers-ti...

The next big thing will start out looking like a business! Wahey!

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#73

Post by bcrosby95 »

guptaneil wrote: post #67

If you're hung up on the word "toy," another way of phrasing this is the next big thing will look like just a hobby to most people. Looking forward, smart homes and 3D printing are 2 industries that fall in this bucket. Both feel like toys to the majority of the market right now, but have the potential to completely change how we live. 3D printing - low-cost manufacturing has completely revolutionized what's possible…

Before smart homes are more than just a toy, they need to have functionality that is actually time saving.

I've messed with smart home stuff and so far the only thing that has been useful beyond being a toy is our robot vacuum, which I'm not sure is really classified as a smart home thing.

As someone that lives in California, something that could be an actual $$ and time saver rather than just a toy is if I could have a system that would open windows rather than turning on the AC when the outside temperature is low enough.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#74

Post by charlesju »

xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

Scooters, Bitcoin, Tinder, Meditation Apps. Then literal toys like Fortnite, Pokemon Go.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#75

Post by guptaneil »

starpilot wrote: post #72
guptaneil wrote: post #67

If you're hung up on the word "toy," another way of phrasing this is the next big thing will look like just a hobby to most people. Looking forward, smart homes and 3D printing are 2 industries that fall in this bucket. Both feel like toys to the majority of the market right now, but have the potential to completely change how we live. 3D printing - low-cost manufacturing has completely revolutionized what's possible…

The thing is a hobby isn't too different from a business. They can even be hard to distinguish: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/hobby-or-business-irs-offers-ti... The next big thing will start out looking like a business! Wahey!

I think cpsmith said it well in another comment on this page that we're talking about technologies, not individual companies[0]. Would other people (mainstream users) say the tech is for hobbyists? The examples I cited (desktop 3D printers and smart homes) are definitely considered hobbies today, regardless of whether anyone would classify Hiome as a hobby.

[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21316776

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#77

Post by oscargrouch »

DannyB2 wrote: post #53
cookingrobot wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this test, is Lego the next big thing?

The real test, I think, is something that has genuinely useful applications to anyone with a little bit of vision. Big entrenched players are unable to see the next big thing, because they see the world through the glasses of their successful business. Microsoft for example almost missed the internet, and suddenly realized it in 1995. I believe Bill Gates was quoted as saying it was just a fad. The funny thing is tha…

I remember building dial-up internet providers in the late nineties(97/98) here in Brazil as a teen, and some consulting folks trying to sell us some Solaris licenses, laughing at us because we were using Linux, 'that toy OS'.

It would be kind of easy to make a stand against the microsoft fanboys against NT 4, but it was much more difficult to make a good case of Linux against Solaris back then. (Remember Linux starting to be taken seriously by 2.2 and 2.4 period)

Also i got the same dismissive snarks, when installing and programing in PHP back then to make dinamic websites, in a world then taken by ASP and Cold Fusion. (And the other alternative in Unix were only Perl, for which i thank PHP for avoiding me the trouble).

It's a reminder for me, that the most common trend in IT sector is of folks with a "colonized" sort of mentality, that will fail to recognize the things that will turn into real things in the future.

It's sad when you think that its even worse than that, giving most people just show off and wait for their next paycheck. They dont even bother thinking in those things.

So the psychological profile of who are saying what is kind a very big deal, not just what they are saying.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#78

Post by guptaneil »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #73
guptaneil wrote: post #67

If you're hung up on the word "toy," another way of phrasing this is the next big thing will look like just a hobby to most people. Looking forward, smart homes and 3D printing are 2 industries that fall in this bucket. Both feel like toys to the majority of the market right now, but have the potential to completely change how we live. 3D printing - low-cost manufacturing has completely revolutionized what's possible…

Before smart homes are more than just a toy, they need to have functionality that is actually time saving. I've messed with smart home stuff and so far the only thing that has been useful beyond being a toy is our robot vacuum, which I'm not sure is really classified as a smart home thing. As someone that lives in California, something that could be an actual $$ and time saver rather than just a toy is if I could hav…

I 100% agree! No denying there's still a lot of work, and, like usual, the transformation from toy to mainstream will take time and significant R&D.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#80

Post by l_t »

xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

I think the "looking like a toy" terminology is confusing the discussion.

From the article:

> Disruptive technologies are dismissed as toys because when they are first launched they “undershoot” user needs.

So instead of asking if it "looks like a toy", what if we asked, which of those products started out by "undershooting" user's needs?

In that lens, I think you could make arguments for a few of those having started by "undershooting." The most obvious example to me is Amazon starting out as an online bookstore.

edit: I just want to add that from my vantage point this might be a true idea, but it gives very little actionable information. Perhaps Christensen's books give better insight on why this is something we should care about.

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