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The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

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Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#41

Post by pbhjpbhj »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #31
xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

Cars started out as ridiculous luxury toys for rich people. Sometimes you gotta wait a few decades to see where things go.

That doesn't appear to be true, Duryea and Benz vehicles (ICE burning petrol/gasoline in the late 1800s) appear to have replaced bicycles and horse-drawn carriages and acted as functional means of transportation, rather than "toys".

Earlier electric and hydrogen powered vehicles I've seen appear similarly to have been created as functional replacements for horse-drawn vehicles.

Maybe you could expand your comment to demonstrate your point?

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#42

Post by grumpy8 »

I have a question for those who were there at the very beginning of the internet. I heard that many were skeptical about both personal computers and the internet.. did it feel the same as it does right now with crypto-currency/quantum-computing? I wasn't there, but on my side, it feels like people were able to use internet right from the beginning, whereas there's a bigger leap to using crypto/quantum. Is it just that the infrastructure isn't in place to allow normal people to do easy things?

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#43

Post by cookingrobot »

aazaa wrote: post #33

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…

By this test, is Lego the next big thing?

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#44

Post by ronilan »

xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

It didn’t hold up because, while it does sound catchy and nice, the assertion is wrong.

And it’s wrong not because of the “toy” part but because of the “next big thing” part.

There is absolutely no guarantee of a ”next”, a ”big” or “a thing“ coming, regardless of origin.

A different future is not inevitable, at best it’s a toss up. This last decade went for inertia. Next one? Who knows...

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#45

Post by Tronno »

cookingrobot wrote: post #43
aazaa wrote: post #33

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…

By this test, is Lego the next big thing?

Lego has an annual revenue in the billions and has recently grown bigger than Mattel or Hasbro. So, yes

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#46

Post by swsieber »

cookingrobot wrote: post #43
aazaa wrote: post #33

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…

By this test, is Lego the next big thing?

Already was - spawned games, movies, theme-park rides, etc.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#47

Post by jacobr1 »

cookingrobot wrote: post #43
aazaa wrote: post #33

I think most participants in the Internet circa 1996 and personal computers in the early 1980s would understand this idea. The Internet was being widely written off as a toy that many couldn't ever imagine having practical applications. Case in point, this widely-cited piece from 1998: > The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connec…

By this test, is Lego the next big thing?

Maybe? The definitions evolve and stretch. What if legos where made of smarter material or had more powerful components? 3D printing might actually be the right way to think about small-scale at-home manufacturing rather than per-brick components - but even then plenty of components (such as compute related) require different manufacturing methods - so standards based on something like lego might allow for interoperability. It's a toy ... until it is not.

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#48

Post by DoreenMichele »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #41
DoreenMichele wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars started out as ridiculous luxury toys for rich people. Sometimes you gotta wait a few decades to see where things go.

That doesn't appear to be true, Duryea and Benz vehicles (ICE burning petrol/gasoline in the late 1800s) appear to have replaced bicycles and horse-drawn carriages and acted as functional means of transportation, rather than "toys". Earlier electric and hydrogen powered vehicles I've seen appear similarly to have been created as functional replacements for horse-drawn vehicles. Maybe you could expand your comment to…

https://www.leaderherald.com/news/local-news/2019/07/when-au...

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/toys-rich

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#49

Post by ghgfhgfhn »

alasdair_ wrote: post #37
xitrium wrote: post #7

This did not hold up well, imo. Not sure how to count it but by some lists this is stuff like: Tencent, Alibaba, Amazon, Netflix, Priceline, Baidu, Salesforce.com, JD.com. Others would include Uber/Lyft, Airbnb, GitHub, ... There are only a few that would qualify that I can think of - Instagram, Snapchat, and WhatsApp. If folks here have other examples or thoughts on why this does or doesn't hold true would love to h…

I can see curren-gen VR and AR games leading to next-gen "real AR" glasses with an impact on far more than just gaming.

Came here to say this. Ar is huge. It's the merging of the digital world with the real. Before we all disappear into our personally constructed digital nirvana, there will be an age where the two worlds become inextricably linked.bif I had enough money for stocks and shares I'd be heaping all my chips on AR. I have a few ideas for killer apps...

Re: The next big thing will start out looking like a toy (2010)

#50

Post by jacobr1 »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #41
DoreenMichele wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars started out as ridiculous luxury toys for rich people. Sometimes you gotta wait a few decades to see where things go.

That doesn't appear to be true, Duryea and Benz vehicles (ICE burning petrol/gasoline in the late 1800s) appear to have replaced bicycles and horse-drawn carriages and acted as functional means of transportation, rather than "toys". Earlier electric and hydrogen powered vehicles I've seen appear similarly to have been created as functional replacements for horse-drawn vehicles. Maybe you could expand your comment to…

There were steam-powered cars in the late 1700s that were toys of a few wealthy patrons ...
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