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The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

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141–150 of 356 posts

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#141
The smarter you are the more you understand the risks and choose safer paths.

Getting rich involves doing stupid things.. things that others would look at and think would fail but you do it anyways. So getting rich involves stubborness and fearlessness and the ability to detact from reality.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#142

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

> Divorce, scandal, drug addiction and various other personal issues can all be financially ruinous. Smart people get past their personal issues and back on track stronger. If not, they aren't smart. A little bit above average is not smart, nor be really great at one thing (like computing) but not be able to fix your own lifestyle, money expending, health and eating habits.

I have not found this to be generally true. A PhD in physics confers zero ability to pick good romantic partners. They are entirely different domains of expertise.

The world is full of brilliant people who can't figure out how to handily resolve their personal issues.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were as unmotivated as described and also born poor instead of well off you would have found yourself homeless instead of living off your savings when you burnt out and instead of posting on hn you would probably be rotting in the ground.

Absolutely. I'm not saying that luck plays no role. It clearly does. But it's not, as the article claims, "just luck" (unless you don't believe in free will, in which case it is). Parenthetically, I was born poor. My family had very little money when I was born, and what little they had they left behind in the old country when we immigrated to America. So I was poor when I was really young, and middle class by the ti…

Who you are is a result of genetics and environment which can be referred to as "luck" since presumably you didn't choose to be born to your parents.

So, while I think that personal responsibility is a valuable perspective, I do think that ultimately what you describe boils down to "luck".

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#144
post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

You can’t choose your luck, but your originating genes aka parents did...more reason why there should be a checklist for responsible procreation.

Having children without a plan puts ones own copies of genes at risk. As is not having the resource to raise them well. It’s self sabotage..as it were..by two people who decided to combine their genetic material and their immediate circle of friends, family and acquaintances who enable their sub optimal decision. Society and media should be ignored anyways while making important decisions.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#145

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

> Divorce, scandal, drug addiction and various other personal issues can all be financially ruinous. Smart people get past their personal issues and back on track stronger. If not, they aren't smart. A little bit above average is not smart, nor be really great at one thing (like computing) but not be able to fix your own lifestyle, money expending, health and eating habits.

Your ability to get back on track is hugely determined by your circumstances. If you're the child of a wealthy white family, you probably have the connections to get a decent job even with some gaps on your resume and a couple of drug convictions. If you're a poor black kid? Forget about it. Recovering from a mental health crisis is vastly easier if you have the financial resources and the family support to avoid homelessness and access prompt and effective treatment.

Wealth and privilege buy you (and your children) a lot of safety nets and a lot of second chances. People without those advantages are often in an incredibly precarious situation, just one tough break or one bad decision away from total ruin.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#146

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

"And I thought you would be dead by now. How have you survived for so long?"

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#147
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been surprised at how uncomfortable people are with capitalism in various parts of Europe Talk about my fintech venture or trading and young people are visible apprehensive Very distinct from the general awe and congratulations and “wow but you're so young!” that comes with completely misunderstanding what personal and liquid monetary wealth is Outside of Monaco and Zug I just started telling people I was a stud…

nah, people are just suspicious of people calling bitcoin "fintech"

> fintech

I had to look up what this brand new slang term meant.

fintech = "financial technology".

Linguistic evolution -- be it wanted, needed, or not.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#148
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2-4 are great examples of survivorship bias. For every success story with those traits are thousands of failures. If Bill Gates had been born and raised in Ruanda, you wouldn't know his name today. Same IQ, same hustler. But no parents with connections, no upbringing devoid of war and violence. It's just like in sports. Usain Bolt is not the fastest man alive. He is the fastest professional runner. Within a sample se…

You’re looking at it way to black and white. I would bet if Gates had been born in Rwanda, he would have stood a good chance of being successful there, better than average.

Libertarians who talk about how the state just gets in the way of innovators like Gates forget how hard it is to start a business when the central government fails and people start hacking away at each other with machetes instead of programming computers.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#149
post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

> You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life.

if you workout and are in the best shape your genes can provide, you will be more lucky when meeting people and more interesting people will be interested on you. That would be 3, not 1. And if you have a good conversation and go out every day, you will also have more chance of meeting interesting people. That would be 2.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#150
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2-4 are great examples of survivorship bias. For every success story with those traits are thousands of failures. If Bill Gates had been born and raised in Ruanda, you wouldn't know his name today. Same IQ, same hustler. But no parents with connections, no upbringing devoid of war and violence. It's just like in sports. Usain Bolt is not the fastest man alive. He is the fastest professional runner. Within a sample se…

Is it still survivorship bias if it took 20 failed attempts before a successful one?

Kinda. The usual rate is apparently 5 failed attempts before a successful one.

Survivorship bias is looking at only the successes and not the failures. All those self-help books about "the 25 things all successful entrepreneurs do" without acknowledging that thousands of unsuccessful entrepreneurs also do the exact same 25 things.

It's standing up on stage and saying "I worked really hard to get here, I deserve this", without acknowledging that other people are working just as hard but didn't get the same result.

Survivorship bias is not acknowledging that there is luck involved in success. That "meritocratic" blindness that divides the world into "winners" and "losers" and blames people for not being successful.

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