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The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

technologyreview.com

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Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#31

Post by SolaceQuantum »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #29
ta1234567890 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

Hustle and preparation are not luck, they're skills you have to hone for them to be useful. You have to actually do something. They aren't something you can be born into (much to the dismay of rich parents with deadbeat kids). By reducing 2 and 3 to luck you're implying that people have no agency. Sure, the person who develops those skills in rural Africa isn't going to go as far as someone who develops those skills…

Being prepared doesn't mean anything unless 1 happens. Hustling => success and preparation => success are dependent on lucky opportunities.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#33

Post by ohyes »

martinni wrote: post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

No, this article is entirely about blind luck. None of the things you describe matter.

There are plenty of prepared, hustlers who can capitalize on lucky events. For every one of them that becomes mega-rich, there are thousands who are exactly as fit who do not.

That is, 2 3 and 4 follow a normal distribution, wealth follows a power-law distribution. The attributes don't correlate strongly.

Makes me feel better to have a study confirm it.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#34

Post by davidw »

martinni wrote: post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

My guess is that it's some kind of distribution curve.

You can certainly improve your odds via 2, 3 and 4, but some people will do all those and end up not doing well. The average person who does them all will end up a bit better-off than average, and some will end up very well off.

In other words, they help, but don't guarantee 'success'.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#35

Post by shadowtree »

martinni wrote: post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

2-4 are great examples of survivorship bias.

For every success story with those traits are thousands of failures.

If Bill Gates had been born and raised in Ruanda, you wouldn't know his name today. Same IQ, same hustler. But no parents with connections, no upbringing devoid of war and violence.

It's just like in sports. Usain Bolt is not the fastest man alive. He is the fastest professional runner. Within a sample set of 9bn people, there are likely ones with better genetics - but no access or chance to become a professional runner.

This is why the slogan "Billionaires should not exist" is not without merit. A net worth of 100mil still means generational wealth. But once you're in the billions, the gap to all the other employees in your company becomes just crazy - but none of the billions would have been possible without their labor.

Remember: a million seconds is 11.57 days. A billion seconds? 31.71 years.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#36

Post by dsfyu404ed »

SolaceQuantum wrote: post #31
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hustle and preparation are not luck, they're skills you have to hone for them to be useful. You have to actually do something. They aren't something you can be born into (much to the dismay of rich parents with deadbeat kids). By reducing 2 and 3 to luck you're implying that people have no agency. Sure, the person who develops those skills in rural Africa isn't going to go as far as someone who develops those skills…

Being prepared doesn't mean anything unless 1 happens. Hustling => success and preparation => success are dependent on lucky opportunities.

No they are not. Yes, there is more opportunity in some settings than others but the people with the skills are much less likely to be passed by by that opportunity than everyone else. There's a lot more opportunity that usable to the people who are in a position to take advantage of it (preparation) and have the drive to do so (hustle).

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#37

Post by michaelmior »

I was surprised to see this article have no mention of privilege that many people experience. Certainly if you grow up in a rich family, you have opportunities available to you that others do not. There are also privileges associated with race and gender among other things that certainly impact one's likelihood of becoming rich.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#38

Post by drchewbacca »

hnhg wrote: post #10
martinni wrote: post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

I remember another study that looked at people who had made it very rich, and they saw that luck was something like 'being educated in a field just when that field is about to make a huge impact in the world' - in other words, great timing in addition to raw talent. I don't have the link to hand now though.

There's this ted talk to a similar effect, timing is the most important factor in a startups success.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNpx7gpSqbY&t=1s

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#39

Post by SolaceQuantum »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #36
SolaceQuantum wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being prepared doesn't mean anything unless 1 happens. Hustling => success and preparation => success are dependent on lucky opportunities.

No they are not. Yes, there is more opportunity in some settings than others but the people with the skills are much less likely to be passed by by that opportunity than everyone else. There's a lot more opportunity that usable to the people who are in a position to take advantage of it (preparation) and have the drive to do so (hustle).

Again, imagine 1 does not occur. You hustle and there is never a lucky opportunity. Do you still achieve success? You prepare for a job interview and you never get the opportunity to interview. Do you still achieve success?

No one is saying that there aren’t factors to increase luck insofar as people are saying that success doesn’t necessarily have a linear relationship with preparation or hustle.

IE. Person A who earns 100x more than person B did not necessarily prepare 100x harder, or hustled for 100x as much. Person A may only have hustled/prepared 10x or 5x as much, or 0.5x as much and just got exposed to better opportunities.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#40

Post by Keloo »

ta1234567890 wrote: post #13
martinni wrote: post #7

Rich people got "lucky" but they don't define what luck is to begin with. To quote Naval, there are 4 kinds of luck. 1. Blind luck - Where I just got lucky because something completely out of my control happened 2. Luck from hustling - luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion. Which is when you’re running around creating lots of opportunities, you’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lo…

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

> You don't choose your genes

I agree with this one.

> or where you are born

Not really agree with this, you can change the country you live in. And it's more important where you live not where you are born. For example lots of people from poor countries go to US or Europe and are quite successful there.

> 2,3 can be reduced to 1.

Don't agree either. Let's be realistic, what are the chances of success for a person who stays at home watch movies vs. someone who go out talk with people get involved in all sorts of activities + prepare the homework for those social events.

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