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Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

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Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#11

Post by throwaway981211 »

golergka wrote: post #3

Americans don't understand how lucky they are, to live in a system where less than a thousand civilian deaths is enough to so severely damage one of the country's most powerful corporations, with very close ties to the military.

I’m not sure what’s the point of your comment. As an American I’m also lucky that my country isn’t facing the issues innocent people in Syria, Iraq, etc face being caught in a civil war. I’m lucky we have vaccines, clean water, contracts, courts, cops, etc etc.

None of that excuses Boeing’s gross negligence and lack of accountability.

I’ve dumped them from my portfolio although I still - unfortunately - have exposure since they’re in the SP500.

At some point, I’m hoping heads roll at Boeing.

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#12

Post by largbae »

jessaustin wrote: post #5

TFA doesn't seem to go far enough. Does anyone know the particulars of the simulator experiences that inspired these comments? Was the simulator that inspired those comments an accurate reflection of the real plane? Was it the same simulator that was used by airline pilots? If not, which was more accurate? Can the programmers of the simulator be made available to investigators? If the point is just to stir the pot a…

The simulators themselves are generally quite thorough, wherever feasible they run the same software as the plane on simulated instrument input (which can also be broken for simulation purposes).

Newer planes are more and more often fly-by-wire with shakers and motors to provide the "feel" of the controls. This only makes the simulators more realistic. Note that the engineer wasn't jumping to the conclusion that there was a simulator bug, and trusted that the simulation represented the real handling (as was borne out in reality).

Here is a 747 simulator on eBay to give you an idea of what's in the box:

https://www.ebay.com/i/293183009463

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#13

Post by phyek »

golergka wrote: post #3

Americans don't understand how lucky they are, to live in a system where less than a thousand civilian deaths is enough to so severely damage one of the country's most powerful corporations, with very close ties to the military.

Boeing is a 100 year old company in the business of building airplanes that transports hundreds of millions of passengers annually. Rushing to introduce this plane was absolutely unacceptable. It took Boeing decades to build its stellar reputation, but after something like this, their reputation is ruined in a matter of days.

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#14

Post by toast0 »

cletus wrote: post #2

I wouldn't be that surprised if the 737 Max never flies again. So the DoJ has a criminal investigation ongoing. That's one thing. But the airlines and the families of the victims of the two fatal crashes have standing to sue Boeing over this. This will take a long time to play out. The problem for Boeing here is that these civil suits will have an extensive discovery phase. All they really need is an exchange like th…

I don't see how this is unsalvagable, unless there's some other issue with the planes that hasn't leaked yet.

Maybe stuff a third AoA sensor somewhere and add sensor voting. At least read both sensors and complain. But, most importantly, clearly indicate when MCAS is activating and allow the pilots to disable it without disabling electric trim, and train the pilots.

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#15

Post by hunterjrj »

zaphar wrote: post #6
cletus wrote: post #2

I wouldn't be that surprised if the 737 Max never flies again. So the DoJ has a criminal investigation ongoing. That's one thing. But the airlines and the families of the victims of the two fatal crashes have standing to sue Boeing over this. This will take a long time to play out. The problem for Boeing here is that these civil suits will have an extensive discovery phase. All they really need is an exchange like th…

I think it will fly again. I won't be surprised if it takes years and some modifications to the systems before then. It may in fact turn the 737 Max into an overall loss for Boeing due to lower sales and contractual fees owed to the airlines for the planes that have already been sold and re-certifying pilots to fly it But fixing the 737 is going to be strictly less money than developing a new model for Boeing. The ri…

> but the plane itself is salvageable.

You're probably right. From an engineering perspective.

Would you fly in a 737MAX post-fix? We have an engineering mindset here on HN and so I would expect many of us to answer "Yes". But ask this same question to the general public? How is Boeing going to repair the damage to both it's brand and this plane's reputation, and convince the general public to fly on this model?

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#16

Post by kstenerud »

cletus wrote: post #2

I wouldn't be that surprised if the 737 Max never flies again. So the DoJ has a criminal investigation ongoing. That's one thing. But the airlines and the families of the victims of the two fatal crashes have standing to sue Boeing over this. This will take a long time to play out. The problem for Boeing here is that these civil suits will have an extensive discovery phase. All they really need is an exchange like th…

If they're lucky, their legal, HR, and PR teams will manage to contain this before it rises too high in the management chain, throw a few mid to high level managers and engineers to the angry mob, and move on. That's how it's worked in the past.

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#17

Post by zaroth »

throwaway981211 wrote: post #11
golergka wrote: post #3

Americans don't understand how lucky they are, to live in a system where less than a thousand civilian deaths is enough to so severely damage one of the country's most powerful corporations, with very close ties to the military.

I’m not sure what’s the point of your comment. As an American I’m also lucky that my country isn’t facing the issues innocent people in Syria, Iraq, etc face being caught in a civil war. I’m lucky we have vaccines, clean water, contracts, courts, cops, etc etc. None of that excuses Boeing’s gross negligence and lack of accountability. I’ve dumped them from my portfolio although I still - unfortunately - have exposure…

There should be an S&P500-N fund where you can select up to N specific companies you want to exclude, and they give you a dynamic ticker which tracks that sub-set.

I wonder if it’s technically feasible without absurd transaction costs, to either explicitly or effectively net out specific company exposure from an S&P500 basket.

Even just a calculator which could tell you, for every share of SPY of you want to not have Boeing exposure you need to short-sell X shares of Boeing.

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#18

Post by yourapostasy »

throwaway981211 wrote: post #11
golergka wrote: post #3

Americans don't understand how lucky they are, to live in a system where less than a thousand civilian deaths is enough to so severely damage one of the country's most powerful corporations, with very close ties to the military.

I’m not sure what’s the point of your comment. As an American I’m also lucky that my country isn’t facing the issues innocent people in Syria, Iraq, etc face being caught in a civil war. I’m lucky we have vaccines, clean water, contracts, courts, cops, etc etc. None of that excuses Boeing’s gross negligence and lack of accountability. I’ve dumped them from my portfolio although I still - unfortunately - have exposure…

> ...I’m hoping heads roll at Boeing.

None of the heads rolling will count unless they are from the very top. Make no mistake, there was a willful and calculated structuring of incentives and punitive pressure that originated from the top that had a decisive hand in establishing the culture that enabled all the combinations of poor decisions to pass through, like many air vehicle accidents. If only middle management heads roll, this will simply eventually repeat, with even more deniability accruing to the top as they vaccinate themselves from lessons learned out of this.

It is long past time that Henry II of England-style management ("Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?") by euphemism-laden punitive measures be scrutinized for their actual effects as structured cultural edifices, and not the legalistic interpretation of words designed for maximum deniability while indirectly pressuring for ridding the corporate body of turbulent priests.

Go to where the real power sits, and change why and how it is wielded to make lasting cultural change. Into this group I also lump in major shareholders who share in the accountability of crafting and maintaining a culture.

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#19

Post by AlphaSite »

hunterjrj wrote: post #15
zaphar wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it will fly again. I won't be surprised if it takes years and some modifications to the systems before then. It may in fact turn the 737 Max into an overall loss for Boeing due to lower sales and contractual fees owed to the airlines for the planes that have already been sold and re-certifying pilots to fly it But fixing the 737 is going to be strictly less money than developing a new model for Boeing. The ri…

> but the plane itself is salvageable. You're probably right. From an engineering perspective. Would you fly in a 737MAX post-fix? We have an engineering mindset here on HN and so I would expect many of us to answer "Yes". But ask this same question to the general public? How is Boeing going to repair the damage to both it's brand and this plane's reputation, and convince the general public to fly on this model?

One one hand this is probably the most scrutinised plane of this generation, on the other hand its the wrong sort of attention... If they can convince people that the scrutiny is an asset, then maybe it will still be viable.

Re: Boeing Pilot’s 2016 Worry on ‘Egregious’ Max Roils Jet’s Future

#20

Post by dredmorbius »

yourapostasy wrote: post #18
throwaway981211 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure what’s the point of your comment. As an American I’m also lucky that my country isn’t facing the issues innocent people in Syria, Iraq, etc face being caught in a civil war. I’m lucky we have vaccines, clean water, contracts, courts, cops, etc etc. None of that excuses Boeing’s gross negligence and lack of accountability. I’ve dumped them from my portfolio although I still - unfortunately - have exposure…

> ...I’m hoping heads roll at Boeing. None of the heads rolling will count unless they are from the very top. Make no mistake, there was a willful and calculated structuring of incentives and punitive pressure that originated from the top that had a decisive hand in establishing the culture that enabled all the combinations of poor decisions to pass through, like many air vehicle accidents. If only middle management…

The CEO's been removed from his (previously simultaneous) chairman role, though he remains as CEO:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-ceo/boeing-board-s...

That's a possible sign of spine, though a rather weak one.

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