Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls • Hacker News Board

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#31

Post by dboreham » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:16 AM UTC

teh_klev wrote: post #14

mc32 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For beef they don’t use milk cows (dairy cows) they use beef cattle such as angus and herford. Also there are other dairy cows like guernsey, jersey, etc.

That isn't strictly true (not in the UK anyway). I was out for a beer tonight and serendipitously bumped into the secretary for the Aberdeen Angus Cattle Society[0] and proceeded to have a discussion about the Society, cattle, beef production etc. You'd (and I was) be surprised to know that Aberdeen Angus sires impregnate dairy cattle for offspring that end up as prime steak. And this isn't just for burgers, it's for…

One of the best "I met a bloke down the pub" stories.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#32

Post by beambot » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:17 AM UTC

jcampbell1 wrote: post #24

ribrars wrote: post #5

This is real scary. One genetic flaw exploited by say a virus could wipe out the entire dairy industry.

The veterinary science in the corporate meat/dairy business is better at disease management than the CDC. Vaccines are developed in a matter of weeks. Quarantining animals and employees is completely enforced. Culling is possible. I wouldn’t be scared. A lot of smart people are going to make sure you have real ice cream. Do you worry that some disease is going to kill off all the elite marathon runners? Not much gene…

So... How do account for the swine problem in Asia?

Disease can still have tremendous global impact.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#33

Post by Aperocky » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:19 AM UTC

dsalzman wrote: post #12

I knew the agriculture industry was at risk due to monocultures (e.g. the banana) but I didn’t know the dairy industry was too! There’s a trade off between resiliency and performance/standardization.

Tbh, this is a little statistical misnomer. There’s a high probability that over half of us is a direct descendent of a single Roman citizen, and I remember a report that a significant proportion of Asian population can trace through one of lines to Genghis Khan.

This is simply because you have 2 parents, 4 grandparents and 8 ggp and so on. Eventually this exponential growth lead to a size greater than the world population. 30 generation would mean more than 1 billion ancestors, and a lot of that would intersect, while the chance of having a certain individual be part of your ancestry greatly increases.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#34

Post by jcampbell1 » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:23 AM UTC

beambot wrote: post #32

jcampbell1 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The veterinary science in the corporate meat/dairy business is better at disease management than the CDC. Vaccines are developed in a matter of weeks. Quarantining animals and employees is completely enforced. Culling is possible. I wouldn’t be scared. A lot of smart people are going to make sure you have real ice cream. Do you worry that some disease is going to kill off all the elite marathon runners? Not much gene…

So... How do account for the swine problem in Asia? Disease can still have tremendous global impact.

About 2/3rds of China’s pork production is not modern. Too many humans involved and they roll out vaccines in 6 months rather than 3 weeks. For now it is just slow and uncoordinated problem solving.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#35

Post by dehrmann » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:25 AM UTC

craftyguy wrote: post #4

This basically means that US beef industry is 1 disease away from being obliterated. Genetic diversity is still a requirement for the survival of a species.

See the other comment about beef vs. dairy. And not really, unless they're inbred to the point that most dairy cows are clones (save for a chromosome) of that bull. And there's smaller herds of other breeds, so there's plenty of genetic diversity out there.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#36

Post by dehrmann » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:27 AM UTC

jcampbell1 wrote: post #24

ribrars wrote: post #5

This is real scary. One genetic flaw exploited by say a virus could wipe out the entire dairy industry.

The veterinary science in the corporate meat/dairy business is better at disease management than the CDC. Vaccines are developed in a matter of weeks. Quarantining animals and employees is completely enforced. Culling is possible. I wouldn’t be scared. A lot of smart people are going to make sure you have real ice cream. Do you worry that some disease is going to kill off all the elite marathon runners? Not much gene…

It's a lot easier when you can cull and try experimental vaccines. So "better" is an interesting word choice, there.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#37

Post by beambot » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:29 AM UTC

jcampbell1 wrote: post #34

beambot wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So... How do account for the swine problem in Asia? Disease can still have tremendous global impact.

About 2/3rds of China’s pork production is not modern. Too many humans involved and they roll out vaccines in 6 months rather than 3 weeks. For now it is just slow and uncoordinated problem solving.

Right. Everything you said about food supply resiliency only applies to modern production in the US. To be fair: that's the topic of the article. But it is inapplicable to 2/3rds of the world's population -- where disease & monoculture are huge threats to global food supply.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#38

Post by journalctl » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:33 AM UTC

daveslash wrote: post #7

What really caught me off-guard in the I didn't see that coming sort of way was that someone named their Bull " Round Oak Rag Apple Elevation " -- that strikes me as an oddly long and specific name. Everything else is, perhaps, bothersome, but not terribly " surprise! ".

You can’t convince me this isn’t someone trying really hard to remember a Diceware passphrase!

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#39

Post by jedberg » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:50 AM UTC

This seems like the kind of thing a functioning USDA would come in and help fix. The could subsidize losses of farmers who choose genetically diverse semen and then get cows that underproduce compared to average.

It's like the perfect case of encouraging something that isn't profitable for the common good.

Re: Most U.S. Dairy Cows Are Descended From Just Two Bulls

#40

Post by jcampbell1 » Fri, Oct 18, 2019, 3:52 AM UTC

beambot wrote: post #37

jcampbell1 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About 2/3rds of China’s pork production is not modern. Too many humans involved and they roll out vaccines in 6 months rather than 3 weeks. For now it is just slow and uncoordinated problem solving.

Right. Everything you said about food supply resiliency only applies to modern production in the US. To be fair: that's the topic of the article. But it is inapplicable to 2/3rds of the world's population -- where disease & monoculture are huge threats to global food supply.

China’s agtech is modernizing, and the Americas and Europe is already modern. We divert enough calories for 1 billion people into biofuels. The only realistic thing that will cause a famine is a breakdown in global trade/markets. I think you are being overly dramatic about the disease threat. I am not quite sure why you think genetic diversity within a species is so important. What is important is to have species diversity and trade to avoid potato famines.