Earlier quoted context omitted.
Somebody can build a consulting business from this HN comment.
This is the first time I have wished Hacker News showed upvotes. They have got to be over 100 with that right?
- Get upvote snapshots of all top-level comments' authors in this thread. Take repeated measurements at relatively low time resolution. Also compare this to any other comments they may be making (have a model of the type of comment: follow-ups that are deeply nested probably have a lower upvote velocity)
- Find archive.org snapshots of OP as well as the authors of all other upvoted comment threads. Find the delta from then to now. Some authors will have recent data.
- For a better model, construct historical graphs of all authors using these methods and use it to iteratively adjust.
- Make sure you understand the ranking algorithm and that it is reflected in your model.
Nontrivial, but could be a fun exercise.