Outside climatologists, geophysicists, biologists and other people with scientific training, I am not sure most people are really equipped to argue against evidence of human impact on the climate, or that human activity is a non-factor in change. However, I do think that the policies countries and even municipalities institute in response to the evidence are fair game. Wild lands conservation, green belts on cities,…
> The people I know who dismiss climate activism and its acknowledgement don't disagree with the science. They resent people who use climate change as a proxy for another agenda that is unrelated and inconsistent with the needs of reducing human impact on the planet What if preservation of the environment is simply incompatible with some political/economic ideology? how are you supposed to propose solutions without c…
The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
251–260 of 276 posts
Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#252Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/248048/years-three-mile-island-... >Republicans (65%) are more likely than Democrats (42%) to favor the use of nuclear power. Republicans typically have been more supportive of nuclear energy throughout Gallup's trend dating back to 1994. It's true Republicans aren't as hung up specifically on CO2, but Republicans have been largely in support of nuclear since before you ever heard the phr…
I don't recall the GOP advocating for nuclear power. They are less opposed to it but I have never heard that they actively pursued it.
Adds billions in loan guarantees to build nuclear plants https://www.apnews.com/38189fb0550e401da6b339ad9870a007
Signs NEICA https://www.energy.gov/articles/president-trump-signs-bill-b...
Republican bill NELA https://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2019/3/murkow...
Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#253Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#254Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's funny how perspectives can be so different. I feel like the GOP has been politely waiting for the DNC to come to terms with the fact that nuclear is really the only path forward to provide clean stable grid power.
I thought the GOP position is that there is no evidence for climate change and all scientists working in this area are part of a liberal conspiracy that wants to get research money from the government. And even if there is climate change it’s either not man made or actually beneficial. In addition nothing can be done because that would kill the economy. I thought that’s the position.
Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#255Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Republicans have been in support of nuclear power since before you ever even heard of "climate change." Back then we just called it "clean air." Are you interested in saving the planet, or are you interested in shaming Republicans? https://news.gallup.com/poll/248048/years-three-mile-island-... >Republicans (65%) are more likely than Democrats (42%) to favor the use of nuclear power.
Well, at this point the GOP is fully deserving of shame. Are they coming up with a grand plan to solve climate change with a new nuclear industry? If so, I'd love to hear it! But sadly, no: they're denying there's a problem in the first place.
Adds billions in loan guarantees to build nuclear plants https://www.apnews.com/38189fb0550e401da6b339ad9870a007
Signs NEICA https://www.energy.gov/articles/president-trump-signs-bill-b...
Republican bill NELA https://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2019/3/murkow...
Here's my real nuanced position. Republican's ability to make this happen is somewhat limited. They can fund research, they can work on environmental regulations that stifle nuclear power, they can subsidize the industry with loan guarantees, and they can work with other countries to promote nuclear power globally. They're doing all that. The remaining hurdles are largely social ones, and the liberals largely own the culture. We need Hollywood to make pro-nuclear media. We need movie stars to support it in their dumb speeches at awards ceremonies. This will help stave off some of the NIMBYism. We need the left to tell the Sierra Club and their ilk to stuff it and not sue every attempt to build a nuclear power plant into oblivion... those groups aren't going to listen to Republicans.
It's totally true that the environment is not as high of a priority for Republicans as it is for Democrats. The GOP supports nuclear, but they're not going make it their top priority. As long as the Democrats continue to block it, as long as liberal groups make it tacitly impossible to even break ground on a nuclear plant, the GOP will just keep on happily burning coal. It's fine to think whatever you want about Republicans. I probably won't even disagree with you on most of your opinions. But this is a super easy major win for the environment that is being left on the table because the Democrats aren't willing to play ball.
Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
Been of the same thought myself. I see tons of pro-nuke Republicans waiting for the other side to show up. Meanwhile the Dems are off cancelling all of the waste repository projects (yucca mountain) and then turning around and complaining about all of the dangerous radioactive waste sitting around the country. This isn't a Burger King.
Can you provide a citation of “tons” of pro-nuke Republicans just waiting for Democrats to show up? Is there a bill they have tried to pass while controlling the Senate for 9 years? Did they write it into their budgets when they controlled all three branches?
Adds billions in loan guarantees to build nuclear plants https://www.apnews.com/38189fb0550e401da6b339ad9870a007
Signs NEICA https://www.energy.gov/articles/president-trump-signs-bill-b...
Republican bill NELA https://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2019/3/murkow...
The remaining problems are local/social ones. We need the left to tell the Sierra club and their ilk not to sue every potential nuclear plant into oblivion. Hollywood largely owns the culture, we need them to make pro-nuclear media to help alleviate NIMBYism. The environment is not the GOP's issue. They GOP supports nuclear but without it they will happily keep burning coal. Nobody made the claim that nuclear power was a top priority for Republicans, the claim is that Republicans largely support nuclear and are going to keep burning coal while politely waiting for the Democrats to come around to the only real viable clean grid energy solution.
Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
> They resent people who use climate change as a proxy for another agenda In my experience, it's more a question that whenever action is proposed, they simply claim as an axiom that it those proposing action actually have another agenda. "You want to introduce tax on carbon emissions? You clearly want big government to control our lives and destroy American industry". This kind of paranoid thinking is problematic in…
There is probably more middle ground. Many people read problematic, and just hear counter-revolutionary. If we agree on reducing carbon emissions, and using policy tools to do it, there are a lot of solutions that don't require trusting that a carbon tax will be used for anything but general revenue. Without limits on what the money is used for, it's the same as a progressive VAT/consumption tax, which isn't a necess…
Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#258Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#259Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not remotely what is happening, is it? Actually, I disagree. There's a lot of that happening. You just aren't exposed to it. You say you'd be genuinely fascinated by a debate about how scientists could be mistaken. OK, let's find out if you mean it. The last debate we had here on this got derailed into a discussion of Conservative party policy. Let's keep it on science this time. To start, let me say that I'm not a c…
I think you will have easily inferred last time around, I am in the UK. The Met Office have all the raw UK temperature readings on their site going back to the early 19th century for some stations. France is similar. Stations have come and gone, or moved, and there has been a growth of overall number as the decades have passed. They feed into global readings. If they are being adjusted I would want ot know why, but t…
I can't sum up every possible argument in a HN post, only show that there are problematic signs worthy of further and deeper inspection. That is, skepticism isn't some weird cranky idea. At least some of it is based, at heart, in the question of whether there are mistakes in algorithms or software. That's a totally normal question to ask about any data analysis.
For instance, let's take your audit point. You audit the data going back. In the USA this is somewhat possible. For the HadCRUT dataset it's not, because they lost/destroyed the original raw data, and their computations to clean it up are not reproducible, as the notes about "Harry's" attempts showed quite clearly. That is already a major problem; in effect we're being asked to take the correctness of CRU's data adjustments on faith.
So let's focus on the NOAA dataset. A large amount of it is synthetic, more and more over time. You say we can't just scream "fake data" and remove it, and I agree we can't because that would at this point erase most of the official US temperature record. But ... seriously? You don't find it at all concerning that in the past humanity was apparently capable of measuring temperature with thousands of weather stations across the USA, and now we've apparently lost that ability just when we need it most - forced to rely on 'estimates' generated by computer simulation? The foundation of science is fitting theories to match the data, but here, the data is being generated by the theories. I think anyone who cares about science should care at least about that.
Now, which adjustments are questionable and why - that's a great question and is pretty much where I'm up to in my own research. There are two main strands of alteration: TOB adjustment, and the PHA.
TOB is "time of observation bias". PHA is the pair-wise homogenisation algorithm. There are other adjustments made too: more and more algorithms have been added over time, but those seem to be the two big ones. PHA seems to be involved in the 'estimation' process to fill out or adjust the reported weather station readings.
This graph shows the affect of them split out:
https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/US...
As you can see the adjustments have little/no impact today. But they rewrite the past significantly: raw data pre-adjustment doesn't show any warming in the 20th century, the 1940s in particular were as hot as today. TOB adjustment was developed first and pushes down the temperatures in the past, then PHA+extras (what this graph labels "final") was developed later and pushes it down further.
This can be interpreted in a few different ways. One way is that climatologists found that in the past people were consistently bad at measuring temperature accurately, so they process the data to remove the failures and the data is now accurate. Another less charitable interpretation is that the algorithms have the effect of fitting data to match the theory, a form of scientific malpractice that is not unknown in history. To figure out what's going on requires much more analysis.
Note that nothing here requires an evil conspiracy. Climatologists were faced with a huge problem in the 1970s: basic chemical theory said CO2 is a greenhouse gas, we're burning lots of fossil fuels, so the world should be getting warmer. At least if you assume the climate is quite simple. But the raw data didn't show that. It was also messy, filled with glitches and could obviously benefit from some cleaning up before usage. So scientists started trying out various analyses and adjustments, but ultimately they're not comparing against a ground truth. They don't know what the data "should" be except through climate theory, so it would be very easy to end up trying lots of algorithms and ending up selecting the ones that result in "obviously correct" outcomes. Meanwhile the number of people involved in this is very small, they're all colleagues, their income depends on the belief their understanding of the climate is always growing, and it's unclear how you could ever resolve the apparent contradiction between chemical theory and raw thermometer data in a field like climatology. It's not like you can experiment on the Earth.
In other words, there's a big grey area between cleaning up the data and adjusting the data to fit the theory. Did they go into that zone, and if so, did they cross the invisible line? It's subjective, but not obviously impossible.
Anyway back to the analysis. So far I only found an analysis of TOB adjustment. It can be found in the second half of this rather long blog post:
https://realclimatescience.com/erasing-americas-hot-past/
Start reading from "I have new tools". The quick summary is: some weather stations used to be read in the morning and others the afternoon, and this was suspected to need fixing. The author analyses Minnesota because it has a balanced mix of AM/PM stations, and shows the PM stations are indeed consistently reporting about 0.5 C of difference to the AM stations. But then he analyses their coordinates and finds that this is because the PM stations are on average a degree of latitude further south, and that average temperature increases about 1C per degree of latitude, so you would expect such a difference based on location alone. In other words, correcting for location eliminates any difference that could be caused by TOB.
I'm still in the process of checking these claims. I didn't reproduce the graphs yet like I did for the claim of synthetic data. The claim 1 degree of latitude = 1 degree C of warmth appears backed up by this source:
https://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/christensen/Physics%2013...
So it sounds plausible. If no TOB is observable in Minnesota, why did NOAA scientists conclude it was a necessary adjustment to make everywhere? It's also kind of suspect that this would matter, since random noise should get washed out by the averaging and long term trend analysis.
BTW, you ask do I accept that data has to be adjusted because stations moved. I certainly did at first, when I started looking into this. The deeper I look the more I'm starting to question this. Station moves and upgrades can certainly introduce artifacts into the reading of a single station, but, scientists only really care about global averages. For this to require correction at all would require the effect of moves to be highly correlated.
Final notes on the science.
what you very probably should never do unless your intent is to mislead, is simply present 100% raw data on a graph
That's not the science I was taught! One of the pillars of science is providing your raw data. If there is uncertainty in the measurement that's what error bars are for, and the various statistical techniques for handling uncertainty. Picking data points and excluding others that don't fit the theory is literally "bad science 101".
Also, if climatologists have such severe concerns over the integrity of their raw data that they need to interpolate or synthesise nearly half of all readings, they should be screaming at the top of their voice that nobody should do anything until the global weather station network is in a better shape and that should be their top funding priority. Are they doing this? If so I've never seen any reference to it. We should be seeing more measurements and better data over time, not a decline in the number of trustworthy weather stations (which is what's happening, hence the rise in synthetic data).
Re: The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/248048/years-three-mile-island-... >Republicans (65%) are more likely than Democrats (42%) to favor the use of nuclear power. Republicans typically have been more supportive of nuclear energy throughout Gallup's trend dating back to 1994. It's true Republicans aren't as hung up specifically on CO2, but Republicans have been largely in support of nuclear since before you ever heard the phr…
No one should have trouble believing that Republicans may be more pro-nuclear - even if you're pro-nuclear and take the most cynical possible view of the GOP, it's a way to produce energy and make money, why wouldn't they be? The anti-nuclear push comes from (yes, overblown) environmental concerns, and those rarely bother the GOP. But your post above very much makes it sound like the GOP is actively trying to fight c…
I went out of my way to say that Republicans aren't all that concerned about CO2. So you are just reading something into my comment that isn't there. Honestly it just seems like you're unwilling or unable to see nuance. You couldn't see it in my post and you can't see it in the Republican position of simply having a different idea about how to balance strong economies and environmental concerns, both of which save human lives and improve quality of life. I mean, who do you think is digging up all that coal in Appalachia? Do you think it's a bunch of Democrats getting black lung to keep the power running? Do you really think you have anything to tell them about how dangerous it is?
But at the end of the day, none of that matters. The only thing that matters is that nuclear is the only viable solution for clean grid power and Republicans support it while Democrats don't. If you want to get into the weeds about why they support it or how they're wrong about other issues or even details on this issue, then have at it. I think it's a waste of time personally.