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Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

economist.com

41–50 of 241 posts

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#41
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It correlates.

https://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations (or https://tylervigen.com/old-version.html ). Just in case anyone ever needs come correlation resources :).

Some of those are interesting just because I never assumed it happened or it was being tracked. And some of them are a surprising scale. 800 deaths from being tangled in bedsheets!

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#42
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

I can't read the article due to the the paywall, but any halfway decent study should be attempting to control for these things. Propensity score matching, or simply including these factors in a regression model should help remove some of the effects. Obviously, there is potentially an unlimited number of possible cofounders, and therefore the assumption that they've all been accounted for should always be met with skepticism, and is why the mantra "correlation is not causation" is so often repeated.

If a modern research paper cited by the Economist has failed to even account for some of the potential confounding here, then I have great concerns for the future of science.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#45

For all those commenting on 'aren't more polluted areas just more criminal due to other factors", as far as I can tell the researchers examined crime rates for the same place and find correlation with whether there was more Ozone and PM 2,5 on a particular day or not. So they are not comparing clean air neighborhoods to highly polluted neighborhoods, but the same neighborhood on different days. https://www.sciencedai…

Do you know if they controlled for daytime population? As in weekdays vs weekends?

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#46
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

The study solved this problem by looking at changes in the same areas, not between areas.

Slow traffic would increase pollution. Noise could be an interesting one, I'm not sure whether there are statistics that measure noise pollution over a country, and how would noise pollution be coincident with air pollution? Overpopulation wouldn't count as they are measuring the same areas with the same population. Daytime population could be an issue (e.g. weekends vs weekdays) but I can't access the study.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#47
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interested - what would be causing the high lead levels in those areas, not that lead has been removed from petrol? Is it legacy contaminants or other ways that lead is released into the environment? I was warned off eating the food I grew in my garden in London as historically people threw their ash into their gardens, so the soil their can be pretty polluted.

Lead is still present in Avgas.

100LL is used in such vanishingly small quantities compared to basically every other source of lead it may as well be rounding error.

Someone always brings this into any discussion of lead as though we should all be outraged that lead isn't technically banned in all fuel.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#49

For all those commenting on 'aren't more polluted areas just more criminal due to other factors", as far as I can tell the researchers examined crime rates for the same place and find correlation with whether there was more Ozone and PM 2,5 on a particular day or not. So they are not comparing clean air neighborhoods to highly polluted neighborhoods, but the same neighborhood on different days. https://www.sciencedai…

[deleted]

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eating prison for also associated. Correlation does not equal causation.

"The researchers made no claims on the physiological, mechanistic relationship of how exposure to pollution leads someone to become more aggressive; their results only show a strong correlative relationship between such crimes and levels of air pollution. The researchers were careful to correct for other possible explanations, including weather, heat waves, precipitation, or more general, county-specific confounding…

What about city activity with pollution?

more activity -> more pollution -> more crime

more activity -> more crime

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