Live data from Hacker News

Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

economist.com

21–30 of 241 posts

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure https://xkcd.com/1138/ is relevant.

It correlates.

https://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations (or https://tylervigen.com/old-version.html ).

Just in case anyone ever needs come correlation resources :).

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#22
post #7
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

Reminds me of one of the prototypical sociological study examples of correlation vs causation where something akin to icecream sales correlated highly with murder rates. The fact air pollution, in many cases, directly correlates with population density, make the results seem less surprising. It would be more interesting if less populated areas with high air pollution (perhaps near industrial plants, etc.) had a high…

Except it's not a case of ice cream and summer time.

Lead fucks people up. Always has, always will. Pretty easy to trace a relationship between lead concentrations and societal disfunction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#23
post #8
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

You'd think it would be fairly easy to control for population density. However the study abstract indicates the only other confounding variable they controlled for was 'temperature'. EDIT: And the link between cities and higher crime seems to be well known and well studied. Here's what a quick google turns up: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/250109?seq=1#metadata_i...

Very interesting - I remember a study when I was at uni saying that mobile phone masts were linked to cancer rates. They also forgot that mobile phone masts were normally on top of very tall buildings and very tall buildings often house lots and lots of people.

So yes the incidence of cancer was higher in that area, but as soon as you controlled for population density, that effect disappeared.

Stuck with me as the 'most dangerous place' was a group of flats near the house I lived in at that time. I guessed it might be due to population density and was relived to find that was the case some time later.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#24
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somebody posts this every single time any statistical study is published, regardless of whether the study actually contains a claim or causation of not.

That may well be true. In this case, the link was to an article, not a study. The article clearly implies causation.

If you read the article:

> Correlation is not causation of course (there may, for example, be a third variable affecting both pollution and crime) and the authors are cautious not to speculate about the precise mechanism by which contaminated air might lead to more rapes or robberies.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#25
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

Or that low income areas with higher crime in general have less money to buy new and efficient/clean cars so the pollution rises.

I think it would be very hard to isolate these factors into a "clean" study.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#26
post #8
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

You'd think it would be fairly easy to control for population density. However the study abstract indicates the only other confounding variable they controlled for was 'temperature'. EDIT: And the link between cities and higher crime seems to be well known and well studied. Here's what a quick google turns up: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/250109?seq=1#metadata_i...

Since they were looking at increases in violence and air pollution on a daily interval, temperature was probably there to control for weather-related phenomena.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#27
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

They were looking at daily fluctuations.

Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime

#30
post #25
post #3

The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.

Or that low income areas with higher crime in general have less money to buy new and efficient/clean cars so the pollution rises. I think it would be very hard to isolate these factors into a "clean" study.

You can't do it with humans, for ethical reasons, but why not take some other social animal, say mice, put one population in a box with zero pollution, and one hooked up to an old car exhaust with leaded gasoline?

I'd wager the ones with the pollution are going to eat each other's faces at a much higher rate than those without.

For giggles and to test some fall of Rome hypotheses, run a 3rd cage where the water comes through lead pipes.

Post reply on HN