https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_cau...
Somebody posts this every single time any statistical study is published, regardless of whether the study actually contains a claim or causation of not.
Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
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Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#12The main problem I see with this study is that it could be confounded by the fact that high air pollution areas have other problems too that could be causing the bad behaviour instead, like overcrowding, noise, frustration at slow traffic, etc.
Reminds me of one of the prototypical sociological study examples of correlation vs causation where something akin to icecream sales correlated highly with murder rates. The fact air pollution, in many cases, directly correlates with population density, make the results seem less surprising. It would be more interesting if less populated areas with high air pollution (perhaps near industrial plants, etc.) had a high…
I'm sure https://xkcd.com/1138/ is relevant.
Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#13Lead(Pb) in the air maybe?
Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#14https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_cau...
Somebody posts this every single time any statistical study is published, regardless of whether the study actually contains a claim or causation of not.
That may well be true.
In this case, the link was to an article, not a study. The article clearly implies causation.
Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#15The paper doesn't seem to be freely available; there's just the abstract. The first sentence of the abstract mentions "short-term". So I think what they've detected is that in a given locality people get violent when the air is dirty, which is not surprising, of course, but it's interesting to have an estimate of the magnitude of that effect.
One would like to know for comparison what the magnitude of the effect of humidity and temperature is on violent crime. Those numbers are probably in the paper somewhere because the abstract mentions how they had to "address confounding variation between temperature and air pollution". It not being mentioned in the abstract makes me suspect that the effect of pollution on violent crime is probably rather small compared to the effect of weather on violent crime.
(Is there a positive correlation between people stating stupid banalities and violent crime? Probably there is, because people who parrot things like "Correlation does not imply causation" tend to get punched in the face. For the avoidance of doubt, that was a joke, not a veiled threat.)
EDIT: The last sentence of the abstract strikes me as highly questionable (though perhaps there's something in the paper to justify it). Just because there's a short-term correlation between pollution and violent crime doesn't mean that there will be a long-term correlation with a similar magnitude. In other words: if you reduce pollution globally over the next ten years people might just raise their expectations and be just as violent on the days on which pollution is relatively high as they were ten years previously.
Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
Reminds me of one of the prototypical sociological study examples of correlation vs causation where something akin to icecream sales correlated highly with murder rates. The fact air pollution, in many cases, directly correlates with population density, make the results seem less surprising. It would be more interesting if less populated areas with high air pollution (perhaps near industrial plants, etc.) had a high…
I'm sure https://xkcd.com/1138/ is relevant.
It correlates.
Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#17The irony of crime is that its how politicians justify there existence. So, expect more polution.
Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#18Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#19Oh Delhi
Re: Exposure to air pollution is linked to an increase in violent crime
#20Lead(Pb) in the air maybe?
Yes. Lead moreso that other pollutants. Areas with higher concentrations of ground lead (older, poorer parts of cities) are pretty strongly linked with violent crime.
Pretty well documented, don't have the citations handy though. It's been thoroughly discuss on HN.
Rudimentary citation