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String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

blogs.scientificamerican.com

81–90 of 162 posts

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#81
post #10

It's important to avoid conflating string theorists with all theoretical physicists. Plenty of people in particle physics either don't believe in string theory or don't think it can make useful predictions any time soon, even if it were assumed true. Furthermore, the vast majority of people called "string theorists" don't even work on traditional string theory day to day, but on more concrete ideas that have been par…

It should really be called String Hypothesis. Theories in science are generally for something that's near 100% proven.

The difference between hypotheses and theories isn't about whether one is more likely true, they are different kinds of structures with different roles.

A hypothesis is ideally 'atomic': it's making a single assertion that should be falsifiable by experiment.

A theory provides a specific way of modeling the elements of some field of study, and how those elements interact with one another.

It should be structured in such a way that it can describe the components of any experiment that might be set up to confirm/reject a hypothesis in this field.

And once an experiment is described in the terms of some theory, the theory should provide a systematic way of calculating what the result of the experiment should be.

That's where the connection between hypotheses and theory comes in: actually conducting experiments assigns either Acceptance or Rejection to a set of hypothesis; ideally, the theory assigns the same Accept/Reject values to the same hypotheses in its predictions (this is probably never 100% the case in practice though—esp. not in an active field of study).

The structure of String Theory is much closer to theory than hypothesis. (It may have limitations in how much it models physical 'experiments,' but it's at least much more of a 'system description' than an atomic assertion.)

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#82
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been hearing good things about the super-asymmetry research from CalTech that was confirmed by Fermilab.

A good rule of thumb is that if you hear ”confirmed” and ”symmetry” together, the conversation isn’t about super symmetry.

In this case, I believe that when someone talks about super asymmetry they're probably referencing this:

https://www.livescience.com/64557-the-big-bang-theory-super-...

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#83
post #10

It's important to avoid conflating string theorists with all theoretical physicists. Plenty of people in particle physics either don't believe in string theory or don't think it can make useful predictions any time soon, even if it were assumed true. Furthermore, the vast majority of people called "string theorists" don't even work on traditional string theory day to day, but on more concrete ideas that have been par…

> [Horgan] puts all his energy into expanding his popular reach.

I would not say 'all', but this bet fits the claim. If he had lost, his position as a prescient naysayer would be gone anyway, while a win could be used to boost it, even though, as it happens, no decisive case against string theory (or for an alternative) has emerged in the interim. In a sense, this bet is a columnist's hedge against there being no news.

For any counterparty, however, a win would have been completely overshadowed by the science itself. A person might be happy to accept the bet as a form of harmless entertainment, but for Horgan, it was more than that.

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#84
post #10

It's important to avoid conflating string theorists with all theoretical physicists. Plenty of people in particle physics either don't believe in string theory or don't think it can make useful predictions any time soon, even if it were assumed true. Furthermore, the vast majority of people called "string theorists" don't even work on traditional string theory day to day, but on more concrete ideas that have been par…

How is holography any more concrete than string theory? It is just as untestable.

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#85
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For others reading, this appears to be because he believed that in an accident the radio-thermal isotope generator on board Cassini would spread radioactive material all over the place.

...all over the place A small, but possible chance of Pu-238 spreading over Florida. I just read that 238 (half-life 87 years) emits mostly alpha, which is said to be easily blocked, even by paper. In FL, many go about half naked, so I'm not sure if this matters. I wonder how thoroughly Kaku considered everything. Seems his concern was based partially on NASA's (small but not null) history of failures. I don't know,…

> Maybe his Japanese (distant) ancestry was a factor?

Why would it be?

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#86
post #36

This can happen in academia. I went through Stanford CS, finishing in 1985. That was about when it was clear that "expert systems" were not going to lead to Strong AI Real Soon Now, or, indeed, much of anywhere. But many faculty were in deep denial about that. The "AI Winter" followed. There was little progress until machine learning finally took off about two decades later.

I still remember reading an article about Doug Lenat and Cyc a long time ago in some pop sci publication and thinking, surely you can't be serious... I don't understand how people ever thought such things could become equivalent to human minds, but I don't think that's my insight, but that others' thinking was blinkered for some reason.

Makes you think about what we think today that will be seen likewise by future people.

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#87
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just not true. Look at the statistics for hiring faculty in theoretical high energy physics [1]. String theory was never more than half, and usually much less than that. (It is true, though, that for a while they had a near monopoly on pop physics. But that's totally different from physics.) [1] http://www.particle.physics.ucdavis.edu/rumor/doku.php?id=st...

His statement can be true if you restrict it to "quantum gravity" jobs (of which string theory is one of many approaches, abeit the overwhelmingly most popular one). The other jobs you're talking about just don't try to answer the questions that string theory purports to addresses.

Despite its drawbacks string theory may actually be our best theory of quantum gravity, perhaps even enough to justify its hiring ratio relative to other quantum gravity theories. Maybe string theory has been treated in a balanced way all along.

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#88
post #5

Quantum computers might be able to perform simulations which will be indistinguishable from reality. Many theories can be tested that way once we have a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.

While I agree on the promise of quantum computing, the way you phrased it is somewhat misleading (hides plenty of complications (even theoretical ones) under the rug). Moreover, even if we can simulate a theory efficiently, we can not use that simulation to learn the value of a (hyper)parameter, without being able to make an observation. And this is the main problem: it is infeasible to make observations in the param…

Is observing a parameter not allowed by quantum mechanics or a current fundamental law?

I am aware of the difficulty involved but an optimistic view is that anything is possible until fundamentally proven otherwise. As far as I’m aware, quantum computers would be able to simulate an entire universe in theory.

Sorry if my initials comment seemed to disregard the enormity of the problem. I realize we might be decades/centuries before any of this is testable. Not unlike how Newton was compared to our current understanding of physics.

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#89
post #85
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...all over the place A small, but possible chance of Pu-238 spreading over Florida. I just read that 238 (half-life 87 years) emits mostly alpha, which is said to be easily blocked, even by paper. In FL, many go about half naked, so I'm not sure if this matters. I wonder how thoroughly Kaku considered everything. Seems his concern was based partially on NASA's (small but not null) history of failures. I don't know,…

> Maybe his Japanese (distant) ancestry was a factor? Why would it be?

Both atomic bombings, the Daigo Fukuryū Maru, and the Fukushima disaster come to mind. Perhaps a better question is why wouldn't people with a personal connection to Japan be wary of nuclear contamination? Or 'why don't the rest of us?'

Certainly there are some people in/from Japan who are enthusiastic about the future of nuclear energy. But I think it's fair and reasonable to say that cultural trends exist and a randomly chosen person with a personal connection to Japan is more likely to be critical of nuclear energy than a randomly chosen person from the rest of the general population.

Re: String Theory Does Not Win a Nobel, and I Win a Long Bet

#90
post #14

Michio Kaku has long been my least favourite of the celebrity talking head scientists. And he has some good competition for that label. His pop-science books tend to read more like coming from a Hollywood screenwriter than a careful and thoughtful scientific mind.

Kaku is the Deepak Chopra of physics.

Harsh...

I have a copy of Kaku's Quantum Field Theory book on my shelf, but no Chopra (thank god)

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