Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
61–70 of 316 posts
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#62Some people say growth can't happen forever, and all growth comes at environmental cost, but that simply isn't true. I can create digital goods and services which people buy, and this increases GDP, and it doesn't hurt the environment and is indeed economic growth in the realest sense. I can even give massages all day, and this also doesn't destroy the environment.
This is incorrect. Every economic output requires material inputs. > I can create digital goods and services which people buy Your digital goods and services require physical machines to run on. These machines are made of physical materials, including some rare earth minerals that are costly to extract. These machines require energy to run, which also requires material inputs. > I can even give massages all day, and…
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#63This reads to me mostly as the US importing more, so the increased material use doesn't show in statistics. The article also mentions increase in use of plastics. One thing I'm curious about though - how come energy use stopped being correlated with economic growth? That's new.
The article says that imports were accounted for.
Now ordinarily, I'd assume it's a trivial thing that obviously must have been corrected for. But recently I read that apparently, US's disappearing manufacturing was hidden in statistics for a long time, because some people miscounted semiconductor industry as if it was manufacturing appliances. So I guess mistakes like that happen.
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#64I didn’t see it addressed in the article so I’ll slip on my tinfoil hat for a moment... Could this be related to growing income and wealth inequality? Poor people buy less stuff, and presumably rich people get rich by not buying more stuff commensurate with their incomes. Even the falling fertilizer consumption might be explained if poorer people are shifting to more processed junk food. The article notes 1970 as the…
> Poor people buy less stuff, and presumably rich people get rich by not buying more stuff commensurate with their incomes
One implication of the above statement would be that everyone is now buying less and yet somehow the economy is growing? Those two ideas aren't strictly necessarily opposed to one another but it certainly doesn't seem like a good place to start. The economy could only be growing through investment if this were the case.
> Even the falling fertilizer consumption might be explained if poorer people are shifting to more processed junk food.
Is there any junk food that isn't composed of organic matter primarily? Most "junk" food in the US that I can think of is corn based which would of course still require fertilizer...
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can raise them with technology or population growth, but there again, you're bumping up against ecological constraints. Population growth, yes, but technology? Why can't technology continue to improve in terms of efficiency and environmental impact as well as productivity?
There are physical limits to efficiency. In different technologies were are different distances away, but there are always limits that we cannot exceed. We can get creative about not needing to get close to the limit, but the limits are always there stopping us.
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
That seems like the most likely explanation, especially since this trend started right when trade opened with China.
It's confusing to me that this isn't proffered at all in the article or most of the comments here. Without understanding this factor, how can "dematerialization" be taken seriously?
I don't think it can. My thought went to suspecting we simply don't "directly" consume raw materials only because this story doesn't pass the common sense 'sniff' test. If I look around me at my lifestyle or my friends/family/coworker's lifestyles, consumerism seems to have increased and not decreased. Think of the rise of ubiquitous handheld electronic devices, fast fashion (Forever 21, H&M, and so on), online shopping, and so on.
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
That doesn't explain crop tonnage going up while fertilizer and water use are going down.
Did it occur to you that, like ordinary consumer products, industrial products also oversell their efficacy? There was just a paper released about a widely used pesticide that did not appear to actually increase yields. If the question is, how does crop tonnage go up without water and fertilizer use, maybe the answer really is a computer helped people plan better and be less wasteful. Or all the least efficient farme…
When my father was in a university geology department in an Agriculturally intensive midwestern state in the 80's, he worked on a few projects with farmers related to water use. One thing he looked into (unrelated to the main research project) was the cost/benefit of ferilizer use. The gist of it was that he came up a curve representing the marginal value added of fertilizer, which started high, and eventually went negative. Past a certain point, less fertilizer was absorbed into the soil and more went directly to runoff/there was more than the plants could use, something like that, and thereafter the added cost outweighed the further crop gains. Most of the farmers in the area were going beyond that point to some extent, and could increase their profit by decreasing fertilizer use to some extent. He said the farmers he talked to were skeptical, but one tried it out on one of their fields that year, found it to be an improvement, and a number of farmers in the area reduced their fertilizer to some extent using the curve as a guidance. The fertilizer sellers would probably just have said that more fertilizers would lead lead to more productivity, which was true, but not presented the cost/benefit.
I don't know too much about farming/crop science, but could see there having been improvements in things like this as well as GMO's & selective breeding. At one point Iowa State University was one of the leading statistics department in the US, which I believe was in large part due to the applicibility of statistics to farming.
"Or all the least efficient farmers were bankrupted out of the market."
One of the trends in the Midwest over the last few decades has been the transition from a larger number of smaller farms to a smaller number of very large farms. Perhaps this is greater efficiency/mechanization/scale.
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#68I didn’t see it addressed in the article so I’ll slip on my tinfoil hat for a moment... Could this be related to growing income and wealth inequality? Poor people buy less stuff, and presumably rich people get rich by not buying more stuff commensurate with their incomes. Even the falling fertilizer consumption might be explained if poorer people are shifting to more processed junk food. The article notes 1970 as the…
That said, I have some questions if there’s an economics know-something around here, because there might be an alternative explanation than just a rise in inequality. For one thing, to maintain the standard of equality/inequality that exists today, I would think even the richest would need something to dump their money into. Right now that seems to be the United States economy, mostly, and a few fairly solid foreign markets, Japan, the EU, Hong Kong, Britain, and for the less risk averse, there’s also the PRC and various developing economies. Mostly the US is where you get your safest ROI.
So a massive growth in investment, would seem to also suggest a massive growth in the financial services market. Not to mention the massive amounts of money sloshing around throughout the Bay Area. At the end of the day, you still need bankers handling all the transactions.
And that’s just it, the United States today, near as I can tell and certainly this is what I was taught and the dogma of today, is a services-based economy. Banking, health care, government, etc, not to mention the usual suspects among tech: Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Uber, Lyft, Doordash, Microsoft, Netflix, etc.
Now between them, there’s a lot of products getting designed, and built, and shipped, and sold. Computers, phones, and I’m sure even the cars drivers use for fares and deliveries are consuming a fair amount more resources than your average car. In providing their services, they are charging a premium, and in return you get convenience. If you use AWS or Azure, you’re still using something tangible and real, you just don’t own the infrastructure. But the people that do are benefitting from economies of scale large enough that there are ultimately fewer servers and data center than there otherwise would be if all of their customers bought their own. So in a real sense, it really does seem like more value is being created with less resources that way.
So now that whoever is reading this knows where I’m coming from, here is my question to economics know-somethings (fair warning, my jargon might even be off or used incorrectly): does our economic shift away from agriculture and manufacturing towards a service and information-centric economy have a possible causal effect on our ability to grow the economy with seemingly fewer resources? If so, is there one part of the services sector which seemingly has an outsized influence in decreasing our resource use while growing the economy, be it financial or tech or something else?
Seriously, thanks in advance.
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#69This reads to me mostly as the US importing more, so the increased material use doesn't show in statistics. The article also mentions increase in use of plastics. One thing I'm curious about though - how come energy use stopped being correlated with economic growth? That's new.
That doesn't explain the fertilizer usage very well, and from what I understand the story with ag is improvements in efficiency.
If you can spray a field with glyphosate, you don't need to till at the start of the season. Tilling has huge externalities, both the carbon emitted from the powerful plow used, and also the runoff from the disturbed soil. That runoff, which can cause all sorts of contamination, algal blooms, etc., is also leeching needed nutrients from the soil.
If you avoid tilling, you ultimately need to use less fertilizer.
Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
While your point is true on a basic level, I think The parent’s point is on to something. There must be a level of economic production that falls below the level of emission that can be absorbed without contributing to climate change. Furthermore in <1billion years everything on earth dies anyway (due to an expanding, ageing, sun) - so it is sustainable to use <1billionth of non-renewable resources.
> There must be a level of economic production that falls below the level of emission that can be absorbed without contributing to climate change You're right, there absolutely is such a level. The important point is that to stay at or below that level, you have to give up on the idea of perpetual, infinite growth. The inputs and outputs must remain constant. My point was that there's no such thing as "immaterial" gr…
That means that taking and fighting becomes more rewarding than building.
It is either growth or war, no way around it.