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Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

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Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#21

Post by eutropia »

codesushi42 wrote: post #12
eutropia wrote: post #2

I think the subtext here is obvious to people on HN, but isn't this because so much value is generated using electrons on increasingly efficient computer systems?

No, it's because these things have been replaced by plastics.

At least partially I'm sure that's the case, however it looks like we're approaching the apex of that trend as well:

TFA: >> The growth in plastic consumption has slowed down greatly, to less than 2 percent per year between 2009 and 2015. This is almost 14 percent slower than GDP growth over the same period. So while America is not yet post-peak in its use of plastic, it's quickly closing in on this milestone.

It will be interesting to see what our other material trends do once we do hit peak plastic, if we shift to using more paper and aluminum as people push back against plastics for their various drawbacks.

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#22

Post by toomuchtodo »

danans wrote: post #19

I wonder what this will look like in a renewable energy world where the cost of energy on the margin drops to the the small operating cost + the principal/interest on the capital expenditure. We might actually see a reduction in GDP in that case, especially if coupled with ever increasing production efficiency for energy consuming processes. In that case, we might have to re-evaluate how we define "success" to be les…

New Zealand is a model to follow [1]. As you mention, of course GDP will plummet as renewables and technology act as enormous deflationary forces (good luck Central Banks trying to inflate against those forces). Software is eating the world, there is no marginal unit cost for delivering that benefit to the world. For example, consider what was previously spent across the world on TLS certs that now Let's Encrypt provides to the world for a few million dollars a year. Every opportunity for a Unicorn is an opportunity for a lean, well functioning non-profit to deliver similar consumer excess (or as a Human would say in behavioral econ, "happiness") very inexpensively (another example I love: Watsi.org [2]).

[1] https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/8/18656710/new-zea... (Forget GDP — New Zealand is prioritizing gross national well-being)

[2] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tZq47h6jg7NX4ddhTS_H... (Watsi.org Transparency Log)

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#23

Post by seibelj »

Some people say growth can't happen forever, and all growth comes at environmental cost, but that simply isn't true. I can create digital goods and services which people buy, and this increases GDP, and it doesn't hurt the environment and is indeed economic growth in the realest sense. I can even give massages all day, and this also doesn't destroy the environment.

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#25

Post by kevan »

danans wrote: post #15
sp332 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't explain crop tonnage going up while fertilizer and water use are going down.

Much more precise usage of water/fertilizer to optimize yield/input can be enabled by computation and data.

Precision Agriculture[1] is the term for anyone looking to learn more. Even small farms now track all inputs/outputs on every acre they farm.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_agriculture

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#26

Post by Circuits »

wil421 wrote: post #11
doctorpangloss wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did it occur to you that, like ordinary consumer products, industrial products also oversell their efficacy? There was just a paper released about a widely used pesticide that did not appear to actually increase yields. If the question is, how does crop tonnage go up without water and fertilizer use, maybe the answer really is a computer helped people plan better and be less wasteful. Or all the least efficient farme…

Do you have any sources for your claims? I saw the article about the pesticide on HN or reddit but not anything else you claim.

I can give some credence to the claim. I work for TeeJet a subset of Spray Systems and we design and manufacture application technology for the AG industry:

"At TeeJet Technologies our single focus is on application technology. Our company and our products have been part of agricultural applications since the first crop protection products came onto the market in the 1940's. Our control systems date back to some of the earliest in-field uses of electronics in agriculture. This experience in the fields of spraying, fertilizing, and seeding means nobody is better suited to provide quality products and technical solutions for your business."

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#27

Post by sachdevap »

novok wrote: post #7
sp332 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't explain crop tonnage going up while fertilizer and water use are going down.

A hypothetical example is drones going through a field and manually picking out weeds, increasing yield with the same amount of resources. Similarly you can get fine grained ‘crop analytics’ through drones scanning the field and acting in response.

And on what scale is this actually happening?

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#28

Post by darkerside »

seibelj wrote: post #23

Some people say growth can't happen forever, and all growth comes at environmental cost, but that simply isn't true. I can create digital goods and services which people buy, and this increases GDP, and it doesn't hurt the environment and is indeed economic growth in the realest sense. I can even give massages all day, and this also doesn't destroy the environment.

There an upper bound created by the limits of possible human time spent. You can raise them with technology or population growth, but there again, you're bumping up against ecological constraints.

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#29

Post by AlchemistCamp »

darkerside wrote: post #28
seibelj wrote: post #23

Some people say growth can't happen forever, and all growth comes at environmental cost, but that simply isn't true. I can create digital goods and services which people buy, and this increases GDP, and it doesn't hurt the environment and is indeed economic growth in the realest sense. I can even give massages all day, and this also doesn't destroy the environment.

There an upper bound created by the limits of possible human time spent. You can raise them with technology or population growth, but there again, you're bumping up against ecological constraints.

Technology is the primary lever of pushing limits back.

Re: Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy

#30

Post by georgeburdell »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #14

This reads to me mostly as the US importing more, so the increased material use doesn't show in statistics. The article also mentions increase in use of plastics. One thing I'm curious about though - how come energy use stopped being correlated with economic growth? That's new.

The article says that imports were accounted for.
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