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U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

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Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#291

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

"However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with the US particularly on semiconductor design and fabrication. Once that happens, the dominance of the US tech stack will start to falter and eventually erode away. " Are you assuming the U.S. will sit stagnant during these 15-20 years? If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity. Their best…

> Their best hope is a cultural revolution.

You say this phrase, but I do not think it means what you hope it means.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#292

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

> will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products.

As if they weren't already doing that very aggressively, using mostly either IP that the American companies have given away willingly to "gain access to the Chinese market" (a hopeless dream) or IP the government's spy agencies have stolen and then handed over to a handful of companies in the relevant industries to catch-up to the American ones.

If you haven't been (actually) paying attention, China was already favoring local Chinese competitors for legal permissions to do stuff, subsidizing them, and also restricting the foreign companies' access to the local markets way before the whole trade war started.

If anything, the trade war should've begun 10 years ago, because then their companies wouldn't have been in as good as a position they are now to be able to keep up with the foreign companies. By now they've already stolen, copied, and were handed over just about all the tech IP they needed, and they also had time to work with it and develop the expertise over the past few years, often helped by their (forced) American "venture partners".

This whole thing actually started because of American corporations' greed, which wanted to make even more billions of dollars in profit every year by moving their factories to China. If that wouldn't have happened, China may not be in the position it is today.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with the US particularly on semiconductor design and fabrication. Once that happens, the dominance of the US tech stack will start to falter and eventually erode away. " Are you assuming the U.S. will sit stagnant during these 15-20 years? If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity. Their best…

US was already shown to be behind in 5g, China is already caught up. Heck they even helped AMD catch up to Intel, and see what sort of major success that was ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMD%E2%80%93Chinese_joint_vent... ) . These moves are there to slow it down. But China can make other moves like moving tech knowledge from one company to others and play all sorts of games. Fact is knowledge despite what American…

>US was already shown to be behind in 5g

Since 5g is technology with not much utility that nobody but the telcos want, that is probably wise on their part.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alibaba has an edge in machine learning? The CEO of Alibaba is palpably clueless about anything relating to do with machine learning and I haven't seen any evidence that anyone else at the helm of the org is any better. Watch Elon Musk try really hard not to cringe at the shit Jack Ma says on the topic of ML. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3lUEnMaiAU

Daniel zhang is the ceo, get your facts right and daniel is way savy in tech than jack ma.

Jack Ma stepped down just a month ago and was CEO at the time of the interview. He's completely clueless and he was at the helm. Those are facts.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Not yet. But 20 years ago, we weren't having this conversation of China even being seen as a threat. Twenty years ago, Japan was the "threat" and the zeitgeist was full of tropes of Japanese technology taking over the world.

Japan wasn't run by a dictator, didn't have tens of thousands of people from a particular religious group placed into concentration camps, or owned so much stock in particular US companies that they can get those very same US companies to bend over to their demands. It's not the same, and you know that.

Japan has put almost as much money ($1B) into US treasuries as China ($1.1B) https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22331.pdf

Since China is "new money", Japan must have held more US debt at some point. It seems unlikely to me that this would not also extend to holding stakes in American companies.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not sure why everyone glorifies basic manufacturing work like it’s the pinnacle of American labor. War requires a lot of basic manufacturing capacity, and geopolitically those aren't good things to lose.

Geopolitically, would it not be better too have a world economy that is to interdependent to support war as a viable path to resolution of differences.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently China is already leading the world as far as AI goes (I first saw this in Mary Meeker’s internet report this year I think it was and she usually links to the research in her slides). I read somewhere that Chinese scientists found it easier to get Chinese government funding for bold and ambitious research (and I imagine they’d also have other “advantages” given how the country is governed). So I wouldn’t be…

This is not completely true. China lead in terms of AI startup funding, but due to the huge shortage of talents, a good number of startups don't hold much water. The top Chinese talents (e.g. Kaming He, Fei Fei Li etc) all chose to move to the US. AFAIK, there are no Chinese institutions that employ elite foreign AI researchers. The US universities and companies still lead with a large margin in terms of high impact…

You're wrong with the "large margin" terms. A lot of Chinese universities have stepped up in the recent past. You can take a look here : http://csrankings.org/#/fromyear/2017/toyear/2019/index?ai&v...

3 of the top 10 (all in the top 5 even) are Chinese in origin. This is a list of publications at the top venues in AI / ML for the past two years. If you extend it to past 5 years, you get a slightly better picture, but that doesn't change the 3 in top 5 comment either.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#298

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

Doubt it. China has yet to invent a new class of technology not copied/stolen from Europe or US. There are very good ar perfecting technologies developed elsewhere.

1957 is an interesting year. In the United States that's the year that Control Data Corporation was formed in the US. Seymour Cray, the namesake of cray supercomputers, would join it a year later and would go on towards the rapid process of turning what were glorified room-sized calculators into the computers that we now take for granted and that would rapidly take over all forms of technological development. In China that was the year that Mao Zedong would begin to try to implement socialism in China. Over the years that followed tens of millions of Chinese would literally starve to death.

Over the next decade to 1969 Mao would start his 'Cultural Revolution' which would see millions of Chinese 'purged', one way or the other, extensive class warfare, and the destruction of undesirable elements referencing their cultural and religious past. By contrast in the US in 1969 we would put the first man on the moon. In 1976 Mao would die and end up, after a brief power struggle, being replaced by Deng Xiaoping in 1982. He opened China to foreign investment and rapidly transitioned China to a system more driven by free market economics that persists to this day.

In the two decades from 1960 to 1980 China's economy grew about 165%. In the twenty years from 1980 to 2000, it grew 555%. In the twenty years from 1998 to 2018 it grew 465%.

In the two decades from 1960 to 1980 the US economy grew about 111%. In the twenty years from 1980 to 2000, it grew 95%. In the twenty years from 1998 to 2018 it grew 45%.

The only reason 1960 to 1980 in China looks not as awful as it was is because of rapid population growth, mass starvations notwithstanding.

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Historically China was a world leader in technology. Wiki has a list of Chinese inventions which you can compare and contrast to their western counterparts in time, method, and source [1]. In modern times they made some bad decisions and at some of the worst possible times. Of course this should make you ask (as it did me) what about the mid ages? The period of time after Chinese tech supremacy but before the modern era? This [2] article offers an interesting argument that seems quite compelling.

One of the big differences is that China was a unified and stable empire. By contrast Europe was a chaotic land of never ending conquest and war. And periods of stability always had an underlying tension of imminent war. This competition and lack of unification within Europe meant that inventors, scholars, and others were free to do as they felt. If one country doesn't like what you're doing and declares you a heathen or other naughty word, so what? Move 100 miles and you're now in another country that's happy to go against the desires of the other country if not only because it's that other country!

China wanted stability and security. Europe wanted progress. It's interesting the compare and contrast this to modern times. No single answer fits clearly, but it's certain that times have changed.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_inventions

[2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/28/why-t...

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#299
post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know but from a science point of view all our last research are based on paper coming from people at China companies (Alibaba, Tencent), that currently have the edge in our specific domain (machine learning). So yes in domains that mainly require your brain they have caught up if not ahead.

Machine learning is a wide field. Could you give some examples of research you've done based on papers that came out of Alibaba, Tencent, etc.? I'm curious.

of course ML is a wide field but for instance these paper were quite relevant to our work:

* https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.03903.pdf * https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8710885 but they are numerous, and the work done at Tsinghua University is very interesting

By the way down voting a comment based on facts is rather silly...

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