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U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#261

Post by cepp »

trhway wrote: post #103

if US wants to put pressure on and punish China, then instead of shooting itself in the foot and everywhere else with tariffs US could have just offered say 10K Green Cards (each coming with $1M resettlement bonus) to the top China researchers&engineers in any industry in China that US would want to cripple as a punishment. At $1M per such a top head it would be a steal for US, and for China it would be a very painfu…

I don't think this would work, for a number of reasons.

First, anecdotally, I've known a number of Chinese-national but US educated persons, who after receiving their higher education and 5-10 years of work, returned to China. The main reason being the "bamboo ceiling". Often, returning means accepting a lower salary but with higher career trajectory and a more peaceful life. I don't think throwing visas + cash at researchers (at least those I've worked with) would alleviate all the cultural problems that lead them to return home in the first place.

Secondly, a recent push for change in Visa distribution (S.386)[1]. Would make it extremely difficult to attract talent. As this bill stands it will significantly harm prospects of Chinese applications for EB2 visas. The kind of change being suggested here (recruiting researchers and engineers) falls into the EB1 - EB2 category. Given how difficult it's been to even get a bill changing pool statistics this far, I doubt you'd be able to do anything of the nature you're mentioning.

[1]: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/386

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#262

Post by thawaway1837 »

luckydata wrote: post #140
saltking112 wrote: post #3

One thing that I really like about the Trump administration is that finally the WH has decided to act against the systemic threat posed by China. Can someone who is well versed in politics shed some light on if this is a trump specific phenonemon or had there been a sea change and the dems are now on board too ?

You will not find a person that despises current POTUS more than me, but I'm also very positive about the fact that China is finally being identified as a real and present threat. Unfortunately current POTUS is doing his very best to implement ineffective measures, it would have hurt China a LOT more to enter into TPP (I know, horrible treaty otherwise) than the stupid tariffs that were imposed. At the end of the day…

Obama (and Bush before him) identified China as a threat at least a decade ago, that’s why the US entered the TPP discussions in early 2008, and if the US had ratified, would have been a significantly more effective strategy that would have enhanced the US’s economic and geopolitical position and hurt China’s as opposed to this, which is damaging the US significantly, and while hurting China’s domestic economy, strengthening it on the global stage relative to the US.

Trump has not been a leader, but he has definitely been loud and used a “let’s throw a tantrum till I get what I want” approach, which makes far more noise, but achieves far less.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#263

Post by mytailorisrich »

saltking112 wrote: post #3

One thing that I really like about the Trump administration is that finally the WH has decided to act against the systemic threat posed by China. Can someone who is well versed in politics shed some light on if this is a trump specific phenonemon or had there been a sea change and the dems are now on board too ?

Calling any country that has the potential to overtake the US "a systemic threat" that must be "fought" is very dangerous.

Essentially this means that the US will try to defend their position as top power by hammering down anything they deem to be getting too big.

This is not realistic and this is how to start WWIII.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#264

Post by varjag »

toby- wrote: post #79
varjag wrote: post #2

The art of caption… > [..] some of China’s top artificial intelligence startups, punishing Beijing for its treatment of Muslim minorities [..] > The decision, which drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, targets 20 Chinese public security bureaus and eight companies including video surveillance firm Hikvision, as well as leaders in facial recognition technology SenseTime Group Ltd and Megvii Technology Ltd. So Chinese pal…

I'm confused what point you're making, here? Not trying to be rude, I'm just unsure of your position. Are you implying this wasn't 'punishment' over China's treatment of Muslims? Or something else? Or am I misreading completely?

It's exactly as the sibling comment explains: no big loss to humanity.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#265

Post by mytailorisrich »

pesmhey wrote: post #7
saltking112 wrote: post #3

One thing that I really like about the Trump administration is that finally the WH has decided to act against the systemic threat posed by China. Can someone who is well versed in politics shed some light on if this is a trump specific phenonemon or had there been a sea change and the dems are now on board too ?

Obama was manufacturing the pivot to Asia. The TTP would have given a lot of power to corporations to combat China. This presents its own set of problems though. Clinton was adamant that her grandchildren would not be speaking Chinese. China has been acknowledged as a threat since 2008 really, by everyone really, just, sometimes people need a very visual and visceral demonstration of action (no matter how less-optima…

The pivot to Asia was extremely sensible policy.

It recognised that Asia was going to be the most important region by far, and that short of a war China and likely India were going to be superpowers at least as big as the US.

Therefore the logical conclusion was to engage in order for the US to be able to influence and to reap the economic benefits.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#266

Post by thaumasiotes »

wideasleep1 wrote: post #211
sumanthvepa wrote: post #199

I guess I am a somewhat neutral bystander here. I'm from India and the way I see it, these sorts of actions, will simply force China and Chinese companies to develop alternatives to US products. For the short to medium term these blacklists will hurt Chinese companies severely, perhaps even put some of them out of business. However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with…

"However, in the long term 15-20 years, I would imagine, China would have fully caught up with the US particularly on semiconductor design and fabrication. Once that happens, the dominance of the US tech stack will start to falter and eventually erode away. " Are you assuming the U.S. will sit stagnant during these 15-20 years? If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity. Their best…

> If China is 15-20 years behind currently, I doubt they will ever be at parity.

Yes, no lesson from world history is more obvious and robust than "once in the lead, always in the lead".

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#267

Post by bakuninsbart »

bduerst wrote: post #115
learc83 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obama's response to contain China was the TPP. It could have been more (or less--no way to know) effective than Trump's, Obama just didn't tweet about it.

Kind of - Japan ratified the TPP, and Obama just said he'd talk about it. Regardless, you're still right. In lieu of the TPP falling apart, China created it's own version to control APAC trade and fill the power gap, called RCEP. The trade war and the "America First" attitude has only incentivized China to speed up the negotiations, which if successful, will control something like half the world's global GDP. The nex…

Very doubtful that it will go anywhere soon. Not only do half the ASEAN countries and China have territorial disputes, India and China have rather cautious and cold relationships. Both SK and Japan are also very cautious towards China and have cold relationships with each other.

I would think that at least the South China Sea territorial dispute would have to be settled, China would have to (at least symbolically) drop its support for Pakistan, and Japan and SK would need some form of reconciliation.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#268

Post by pinkfoot »

aianus wrote: post #121
trhway wrote: post #103

if US wants to put pressure on and punish China, then instead of shooting itself in the foot and everywhere else with tariffs US could have just offered say 10K Green Cards (each coming with $1M resettlement bonus) to the top China researchers&engineers in any industry in China that US would want to cripple as a punishment. At $1M per such a top head it would be a steal for US, and for China it would be a very painfu…

The West should do this with Hong Kong. There must be many wealthy, educated HKers who are interested in leaving at this point and they would be a huge asset to whichever country accepts them.

Its called Vancouver.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#269

Post by majia »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #167
vkou wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are wrong to blame an entire country for our addiction to fentanyl. The facts are: 1. Fentanyl has legitimate pharmaceutical uses. 2. There are many, many, many legal manufacturers of Fentanyl, across the world, including Bayer, Johnson&Johnson, Meiji Seika Pharma (Japan), and yes, Chinese manufacturers. Some legal fentanyl ends up getting diverted into illegal channels. 3. There are also many, many, many illegal…

And yet in August we seized a Chinese shipment of fentanyl large enough to kill an entire state's worth of people. When China actually does something beyond lip service, then I'll believe you. Let's not forget, every major industry in China is controlled by the party. Whether it was a controlled substance in China is irrelevant to whether or not they're literally killing us by the tens of thousands a year. https://ww…

What seized were not fentanyl, but some chemicals could be used in the fentanyl manufacturing process, as well as many other legitimate use.

If you want to stop fentanyl, the best thing to do is to figure out what chemicals are used exclusively in fentayl production and build an international coalition to ban those. Unfortunately many people just don't appreciate this kind of sophistication and prefer an easier blame game.

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