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U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#141

Post by AJ007 »

mattnewton wrote: post #138
softwaredoug wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump lending his name to “getting tough on a China” is probably a sure fire way that “getting tough on China” will be in the political wilderness for the next 10 years.

I'm not so sure - if a tough on China stance continues to poll well, the next administration will probably follow suit. What absolutely will be in the wilderness is the current approach of tarriffs and bailouts.

The mass internment camps are really the nail in the coffin for China on this one. A lot of the other stuff can be excused away politically, that one can’t.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#142

Post by mattnewton »

trhway wrote: post #103

if US wants to put pressure on and punish China, then instead of shooting itself in the foot and everywhere else with tariffs US could have just offered say 10K Green Cards (each coming with $1M resettlement bonus) to the top China researchers&engineers in any industry in China that US would want to cripple as a punishment. At $1M per such a top head it would be a steal for US, and for China it would be a very painfu…

I love this idea; it plays strongly into American strengths.

However, I don't know if China would be more successful in convincing it's top talent to stay with their families, and I have no idea how to sell this idea politically to American voters. The stereotype of Chinese culture is that they tend to be more collectivist, and the stereotype of the general population of American voters would most likely rather spend any money on Americans first. For the later problem, it is hard to articulate concisely the roundabout way this ends up causing brain drain, and the eventual benefits to the US citizenry. It is much easier to sell "China did something bad, we will punish them with tariffs" than "Chinese government bad, we will pay top Chinese citizens to defect."

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#143

Post by luckydata »

trhway wrote: post #103

if US wants to put pressure on and punish China, then instead of shooting itself in the foot and everywhere else with tariffs US could have just offered say 10K Green Cards (each coming with $1M resettlement bonus) to the top China researchers&engineers in any industry in China that US would want to cripple as a punishment. At $1M per such a top head it would be a steal for US, and for China it would be a very painfu…

Great way to get a bunch of spies, and pay for it.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#144

Post by vunie »

So far, china has only retaliated defensively against the us. I wonder what will happen when china decides to go on the offensive the same way the us has and hit were it really hurts? What will happen if they cut off the us entirely and force asian countries to cease trading with it (i.e. using the same strategies used to isolate iran or turkey).

Successful military intervention is unlikely since china is a nuclear superpower with a strong army and an even stronger industrial backbone. They're not some defenseless third-world shithole.

I can't imagine it being long now, but china will eventually get to the tipping point were things start to go downhill for them. I bet china won't let it get to that point without retaliating for it's destroyed economy by thoroughly destroying the us economy while it still can.

I think we'll soon be seeing humanity's first economical MAD event.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#145

Post by vkou »

saltking112 wrote: post #3

One thing that I really like about the Trump administration is that finally the WH has decided to act against the systemic threat posed by China. Can someone who is well versed in politics shed some light on if this is a trump specific phenonemon or had there been a sea change and the dems are now on board too ?

A systemic threat to what?

It's own people? Is that our problem? [1]

Uncooperative neighbours? We, here in the US, have posed, do pose, and continue to pose a threat to uncooperative nations across the entire world.

Our domestic economy? All problems with it are entirely of our own doing. Globalization killing the middle class? That's not a China problem, that's a domestic political problem. And yes, general tariffs are a systemic solution to this problem. Country-specific tariffs are a half-assed half-solution to it.

I understand that you're concerned that the uncontested US hegemony is not long for this world.

But I don't understand why you care so deeply about it. I don't consider that unipolar hegemony to have ever been a good thing for most people outside - or inside the US.

[1] If that is, in fact, the problem you care most about, then consider that the only way it will ever be solved, is internally, by the Chinese people. Foreign interference in those kinds of affairs is counterproductive - it only causes the target nation to close rank.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#146

Post by mattnewton »

AJ007 wrote: post #141
mattnewton wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not so sure - if a tough on China stance continues to poll well, the next administration will probably follow suit. What absolutely will be in the wilderness is the current approach of tarriffs and bailouts.

The mass internment camps are really the nail in the coffin for China on this one. A lot of the other stuff can be excused away politically, that one can’t.

The United States has a lot of people cheering for efforts like that back home; I think it absolutely could get swept under the rug. It's a different situation at the American border, sure, but I think it points to a general lack of empathy for foreigners.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#147

Post by bigpumpkin »

vunie wrote: post #144

So far, china has only retaliated defensively against the us. I wonder what will happen when china decides to go on the offensive the same way the us has and hit were it really hurts? What will happen if they cut off the us entirely and force asian countries to cease trading with it (i.e. using the same strategies used to isolate iran or turkey). Successful military intervention is unlikely since china is a nuclear s…

Thankfully I don't think the Chinese think they are able to institute broad sanctions on America.

Classic tools that they may actually consider include:

Dumping US treasuries. Making life for American companies difficult through regulations and inspections. Limiting rare earth exports.

All of these have a cost on them as well (just like how most American tools on China have a cost on America), so they are careful to implement them.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#148

Post by vkou »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #137
99_00 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't want a deal. They only want to continue to exploit the US. So the US is gradually decoupling from them.

They're literally killing us by the tens of thousands every year. It seems like every week there's some story about a Chinese product with Mercury or other poisons. Recently we caught them smuggling enough fentanyl through our southern border to kill a billion people. I agree, the only "deal" China will accept is a total capitulation of the United States, so there will be no deal.

I like how you manage to assign blame for the actions of a few drug dealers to an entire country.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#149

Post by Consultant32452 »

vkou wrote: post #148
Consultant32452 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're literally killing us by the tens of thousands every year. It seems like every week there's some story about a Chinese product with Mercury or other poisons. Recently we caught them smuggling enough fentanyl through our southern border to kill a billion people. I agree, the only "deal" China will accept is a total capitulation of the United States, so there will be no deal.

I like how you manage to assign blame for the actions of a few drug dealers to an entire country.

There's basically one company making all this fentanyl. We know where it is, we know where the CEO lives. He's walking around free and in the open in China.

Re: U.S. widens trade blacklist to include some of China’s top AI startups

#150

Post by stale2002 »

vunie wrote: post #144

So far, china has only retaliated defensively against the us. I wonder what will happen when china decides to go on the offensive the same way the us has and hit were it really hurts? What will happen if they cut off the us entirely and force asian countries to cease trading with it (i.e. using the same strategies used to isolate iran or turkey). Successful military intervention is unlikely since china is a nuclear s…

> What will happen if they cut off the us entirely and force asian countries to cease trading with it

What happens when we do it to them?

China is powerful, sure. But they aren't more powerful than the western world. We'll win that fight. (Well, by "win" I mean suffer less damages).

Western companies are also already pretty cut off from the Chinese market. Cutting them off even more so is unlikely to have as huge if an impact as people are predicting.

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