The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars • Hacker News Board

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#271

Post by otterley » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 4:24 AM UTC

wigsby806 wrote: post #240

sheeshkebab wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonsense. Did you ever see an i-device get cheaper? Or a cheap car get even cheaper? There is a reason why wealth inequality has grown in recent decades, while manufacturing efficiencies increased.

The cheap car isn't the same cheap car though. Try finding a 2-door sedan with manual controls and an AM/FM radio. Even the cheapest new car has bluetooth entertainment controls and backup cameras. It also has airbags in every zone and a decent crash rating. Nobody produces the cheap base-model car of yore, if they did they could easily do so for well under 10k. But that doesn't support the bottom line especially whe…

To be clear, cheap base-model cars are still being manufactured and sold, just not for the U.S. and other wealthy markets. They’re being sold in droves in India, Africa, Asia, and Central and South America.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#272

Post by zizee » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 4:49 AM UTC

TomMckenny wrote: post #245

zizee wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No it's about money and who gets it. > Owners are pushing for the first, labor wants anything except the first. There are two important actors left out of this analysis: consumers and parts suppliers. It doesn't fit the evil owner narrative, but often these efficiency gains translate largely to reduced prices for consumers. Consumers vote with their wallets, so it is often the case that unless the evil owners consp…

>There are two important actors left out of this analysis: consumers and parts suppliers. This is indeed plausible and has happened for other commodities but note: 1) since the model-T, inflation adjusted consumer prices for automobiles have never dropped and 2) car manufacturers have historically replicated or bought any serious profit centers in their supply chain. >Evil Shareholders act in their interest, employee…

>>Evil

> Shareholders act in their interest, employees act in theirs. Often everyone ends up fairly satisfied. Is that not how the system is supposed to work and is describing it plainly without effusive praise now automatically suspect?

Apologies, I think I mistakenly inserted an implied value judgement when reading your original post. Rereading your post I see that your words can be read with a neutral tone.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#273

Post by mr_toad » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 4:53 AM UTC

TomMckenny wrote: post #122

No it's about money and who gets it. Unless electric cars are going to generate less revenue than petroleum based, which they won't, the pie is the same size. That manufacturing becomes more efficient is no surprise: it always has. The question is whether they have fewer workers at the same compensation level, fewer workers at a higher compensation level or the same number of workers with fewer hours. Owners are push…

> No it's about money and who gets it.

You’re overlooking many points.

Firstly, it’s not just a question of management vs labour. Capital needs to be compensated, or no-one will provide it.

Secondly, not all labour is equal. With increasing automation, some labour will become more productive, and more highly compensated. Other labour will become obsolete. The total size of labour compensation could go either way.

The size of the cake is not fixed. Greater efficiencies could lead to greater margins, greater sales and more for some, or more for all. Or it could simply lead to the same product being delivered more cheaply (and at this point, the world needs more efficient transportation, it doesn’t need even more cars).

No-one, not management, not the investors, not the labour force is entitled to a particular stake in the future by virtue of the status quo. If personal automobiles were magicked out of existence by some revolutionary new device, I’d say good riddance.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#274

Post by TomMckenny » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 5:57 AM UTC

darawk wrote: post #269

TomMckenny wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There are two important actors left out of this analysis: consumers and parts suppliers. This is indeed plausible and has happened for other commodities but note: 1) since the model-T, inflation adjusted consumer prices for automobiles have never dropped and 2) car manufacturers have historically replicated or bought any serious profit centers in their supply chain. >Evil Shareholders act in their interest, employee…

> This is indeed plausible and has happened for other commodities but note: 1) since the model-T, inflation adjusted consumer prices for automobiles have never dropped and 2) car manufacturers have historically replicated or bought any serious profit centers in their supply chain. While that may be true, the word 'car' is hiding all of the consumer surplus. Cars are not simply repackaged model Ts. Todays cars are ord…

Yes of course cars now are vastly superior. I was responding to the claim that the shift to electric will reduce gross revenue which reduce the sticker price and so explain any workforce reduction.

So we clearly agree, sticker price has not gone down since the assembly line. So to say it is happening now is not really justified. Especially since, far from say the Yugo approach, electric currently is very much billed as an improvement over petroleum (correctly imo). But while cost of ownership maybe less, nowhere is the sticker price pitched as a cheap alternative to petroleum. And this is what affects manufacturers and the point I was addressing.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#275

Post by rasz » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 6:58 AM UTC

pkaye wrote: post #13

I was watching this Youtube video of Audi electric motor production. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zttC2x9nMEw Pretty crazy how much of the motor construction can be automated. There is just no way around it. Union or not, a lot of jobs will disappear. If GM and Ford don't do it then one of the hundred electric car companies around the world will progress in that direction.

Looks like they focused on cutting out labor costs, and not efficiency. I sure hope it was slowed down by factor of at lest 4 for the Video. Look up Chinese electric motor production lines on YT for comparison.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#276

Post by JanisL » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 11:00 AM UTC

bluedino wrote: post #132

noobermin wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I'm ignorant, why can't they just make other parts? If you have a lathe and a machine shop, you can make other pieces of metal instead of the pieces of metal you currently make.

Why can't a software company just make other software? Why did WordPerfect go out of business when they could have just made games, and OS, or a web browser?

It's not easy to change directions. You may enjoy reading Andy Grove's writing about strategic inflection points, basically a description of what had to happen at Intel for them to transition from the memory market that they were struggling in to the microprocessor market.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#277

Post by mfer » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 12:16 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #25

mfer wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you take away people’s ability to provide for themselves and their families you’re bound to make enemies and that’s due to hurting people. It says a lot about what one calls progress I would suggest helping those people move on to something else that enables them to care for their families. It’ll make change far more palatable and is better for people

What would be concrete actions that enable someone in their late forties or early fifties to find a new job when the whole industry they've worked in so far basically disappears? Say someone working at a coal plant, or someone assembling ICEs? Who will hire them?

There are programs for this. I know people who have gone through them. I think the issue is they need to be funded. I’d defer to the experts on this.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#278

Post by nradov » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 1:28 PM UTC

bluedino wrote: post #132

noobermin wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I'm ignorant, why can't they just make other parts? If you have a lathe and a machine shop, you can make other pieces of metal instead of the pieces of metal you currently make.

Why can't a software company just make other software? Why did WordPerfect go out of business when they could have just made games, and OS, or a web browser?

WordPerfect didn't actually go out of business. They just lost most market share and were acquired cheaply by Corel.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#279

Post by danaris » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 3:24 PM UTC

plutonic wrote: post #212

pnutjam wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People realize it, just not he old ones with the money.

This reminds me of Scott's post over at Slate Star Codex about Moloch [0]. The issue here isn't so much about _realizing_ the futility in pegging one's happiness to one's profitability. The issue is that for any one person to forgo this standard (s)he would be required to give up the status conferred on being a profit-generating American. This is against his/her interest. Thus, most Americans would rather work harder…

That's a fairly privileged take on it.

Most Americans don't continue to work for status—they continue to work to eat.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#280

Post by linksnapzz » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 5:36 PM UTC

roenxi wrote: post #249

TomMckenny wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There are two important actors left out of this analysis: consumers and parts suppliers. This is indeed plausible and has happened for other commodities but note: 1) since the model-T, inflation adjusted consumer prices for automobiles have never dropped and 2) car manufacturers have historically replicated or bought any serious profit centers in their supply chain. >Evil Shareholders act in their interest, employee…

Would it still be legal to produce a model-T? I imagine it would run afoul of all sorts of quality and safety regulations. That might be linked to the lack of price reductions. I selling a model-T were still legal it would be likely be laughably cheap. A lot of technology improvements that would have reduced prices are eaten by increased government regulation. The consensus position is that that is a good outcome.

No, it would be unsalable. Emissions, safety, etc. Even if you made it by hand at an art-museum level of fabrication quality...no first-world government would allow its sale as a passenger vehicle.