Live data from Hacker News

The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

marketwatch.com

111–120 of 293 posts

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#111
post #11

As a society we need to make sure we are taking care of people when their industry is destroyed. The whole “learn 2 code” thing that was directed toward coal workers was exactly the wrong thing to do. If we want those coal plants to shut down we should have offered to pay off the workers until they reached retirement age. If you “take away” someone’s job for the sake of progress, then you’ll make enemies of progress…

I disagree. It's the responsibility of each worker to maintain the skills they need to be valuable in the modern economy.

Our government should help the unemployed, but paying them off "until they reached retirement age" means that the people who are still employed are paying for them to do nothing.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#112
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The whole “learn 2 code” thing that was directed toward coal workers was exactly the wrong thing to do. Can somebody go into depth on this? Everyday I interact with people who have jobs that suck way more than coding and pay way less. Why wouldn't people want to work 40 hours remotely with full benefits making decent wages?

A scenario would be something like you and your entire family live somewhere, and you make a good income that allows you to have a decent life, and now that income stream is gone and you’re expected to retrain after who knows how long to “learn 2 code” and then somehow get another high-paying job. What go back to college? A coding boot camp? Uproot you’re family to move to San Francisco and compete with 20 year old k…

I agree that it's an unreasonable expectation for the average West Virginia former coal miner late in life to "Learn 2 Code" in San Francisco. But the guy that sits next to me in my webdev job did exactly that (family of 6, middle-aged, moved from working in "business" in Texas, went to a coding bootcamp for 3 months, we hired him, now he's the hardest working programmer in the office). I'm not inclined to feel sorry for the guy who can't put in the same effort.

> from their perspective it’s the government coming in and destroying their way of life and then not even bothering to help

It's not our jobs as taxpayers to maintain coal miners' "way of life". Coal mining was a massive improvement to the world in the mid 1800s between whale blubber and refined petroleum, but the world doesn't owe coal miners anything more than a paycheck on the open market, where coal is a commodity and has to compete against fracking (cheaper) and solar and wind (far cleaner and create more jobs). They have cashed 200 years of paychecks and chose to send their young boys into the same coal mines rather than invest in a better life for their kids.

But I also don't look at this in a vacuum. As far as I know, coal mining companies don't offer great pensions for their mine workers. No state in the US has a decent job/vocational retraining and placement system. The coal mining states don't vote politically for good welfare programs that would allow what you claim to want (retirement at their current standard of living). If coal miners wanted a retraining system, they have the ability to vote for political leaders who could do that -- but there is no political will. They could start their own companies or non-profits (like you), but I don't hear about them (doesn't necessarily mean they don't exist). The guys that made billions in coal aren't investing in the same regions that have historically been single-industry areas.

And when it comes to coal, I would argue that - (1) it was largely beat by innovation and fracking before the EPA / federal government / renewables started reducing coal jobs. The largest coal mine in the world is in Australia finished in ~2008 and idled because it was no longer cost effective to run the mine at those current coal prices. - (2) it has massive negative externalities to the entire air-breathing world just to keep a few thousand coal miner jobs[1]. Coal miners know this acutely, but they continue to work in the industry (to the extent that it's possible).

I think it's important to help others, but self-agency has to play a role. Your anecdote about the chat lady shows that she had enough agency to quit her job willfully (I've worked at jobs long past when I had decided that management) and that she didn't bother to go to read a book or internet article about how to move up in the workplace shows a great example of the possibility of agency, but the unwillingness to execute.

I think this kind of complacency is why we are losing jobs to other countries. The Netflix documentary "American Factory" perfectly describes the mismatched expectations of American union workers in 2020 thinking they have the same bargaining power as in 1960 and international companies who know they the Chinese workers doing the "996" work ethic is a far better value than the American who clocks out after a very safe 40 hours a week and demands much higher for producing the same exact product.

When it comes to the entire US, I think we should adopt a more comprehensive employment-and-reemployment program, more like Germany's. But we like to pride ourselves on "being free" and not accepting government handouts or entitlements, so we reap what we sow.

> Coal-mining employment increased rapidly in the late 1800s and early 1900s, and peaked in 1923 at 798,000. Since then, the number of miners has fallen considerably since, due to mechanization. By 2015 it had fallen below 70,000.[1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coal_mining_in_the_...

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#113
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the way we take care of people is by providing many diverse training paths and transparency. Not just college age programs but lifelong learning where it’s possible to learn to code or weld or teach or whatever. Our libraries and community colleges should include more low cost certification and structured learning programs where people can explore interests. I think this is very different from the high cost 4…

If people were willing to retrain, your concept might work. But in all the cases I’ve seen so far, most of these people built their whole identities around being a coal miner or an automobile assembly line person. That’s the only thing they know how to do, and the only thing they are willing to do. Nothing less than the exact same thing will suffice. In the case of widespread intransigence, I don’t see how you can so…

don’t forget active denigration of anything but so-called “real jobs.” though i suppose denial and anger are the first two stages of grief

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#114
post #11

As a society we need to make sure we are taking care of people when their industry is destroyed. The whole “learn 2 code” thing that was directed toward coal workers was exactly the wrong thing to do. If we want those coal plants to shut down we should have offered to pay off the workers until they reached retirement age. If you “take away” someone’s job for the sake of progress, then you’ll make enemies of progress…

> The whole “learn 2 code” thing that was directed toward coal workers was exactly the wrong thing to do. Can somebody go into depth on this? Everyday I interact with people who have jobs that suck way more than coding and pay way less. Why wouldn't people want to work 40 hours remotely with full benefits making decent wages?

Because most people on this forum live in a bubble when it comes to computer literacy and the average population is really, really bad at it, you won't get them into coding when they're already failing at tasks you'd need for a basic white-collar job.

Telling blue-collar workers to learn to code is in their analogy like telling them to be rocket-scientists. If they could, they probably wouldn't be blue-collar in the first place.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21037674

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any career change is non-trivial for a mid-career worker and it's probably unrealistic that a majority of blue-collar workers would be able to transition into software jobs. "Learn to code" is great advice in general and can change the lives of certain individuals but it's not a winning strategy for shifting a mid-career workforce from one career to another, at scale.

> Any career change is non-trivial for a mid-career worker and it's probably unrealistic that a majority of blue-collar workers would be able to transition into software jobs. Unrealistic in what sense? That most people are unable to learn managing state and code flow? I never hear anybody say "it is unrealistic for workers to learn Spanish/Russian/Mandarin/Japanese", yet I really feel basic programming is even easie…

It's unrealistic for middle age blue collar workers in America to learn Spanish/Russian/Mandarin/Japanese, assuming that they have no prior experience or exposure to these languages. Learning a natural language is a lot harder than learning a programming language.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#116
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be labeled socialism. Seemingly all it takes to defeat a proposal in US politics.

There are no purely capitalist or purely socialist societies, everything is a mix, even the US. The trick is finding the right balance between incentive and fairness. I'd argue that the US needs some more fairness at this point in history given the income inequality increases since the 60s (gini coefficient), but without removing the incentives which drive the economy.

I see very few “drivers of economy”. This site is a testament to the concentration of wealth and high paying work in very few places. I say the US needs a governmental works program for literally every locality. Something to drive infrastructure through the last mile everywhere. Everyone having decent (doesn’t have to be “great”) pay would curb many societal ills.

One option is remote work for governmental programs. It may even need to include a counter propaganda system similar in numbers to what other governments are employing to prop up internet trolls.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if we hang these people out to dry we will pay the price down the line. If we continue promoting industries that cause the global climate to worsen more rapidly, we're going to pay a MUCH bigger price down the line. Taking jobs from folks who work in such an industry is a price worth paying, considering the alternative.

> Taking jobs from folks who work in such an industry is a price worth paying, considering the alternative. The options are not fire them or keep screwing the planet. There's a third option: fire them but don't HANG THEM OUT TO DRY. Provide a social safety net - retraining, early retirement, health care, etc. This is the whole idea behind the "green new deal"... catch the people who would otherwise be ground up by th…

We could have a social safety net, but if the reporting and polls are to be believed, many of those in these collapsing industries have tended to vote for those trying really hard to dismantle what social safety nets we have. Let alone implement new ones. I imagine that is because candidates promised to save their jobs. But no one thought to ask, “what happens if they don’t?”

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#118
This is probably tone deaf, but instead of giving the auto workers more money or open more factories, what if they gave them stock grants? If you gave them stock, they workers wouldn't want to open factories that would cause GM to lose money. It would keep the worker and the management incentives aligned.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#119

It's not clear that electric cars will take less labor to build. Tesla's experience is that their cars take far more labor to build than Ford or Toyota or VW needs to build a car.[1] Even the battery pack operation is surprisingly labor-intensive. Automobile engine building, on the other hand, has been mostly automated since the 1950s. [11 https://www.autonews.com/article/20170611/OEM01/170619951/te...

So, in other words, classic car manufacturers have a 70 year head-start in automation?

An EV has far fewer parts than an ICE-vehicle, if not now, then when their production reaches the same level of automation, they'll definitely be less manual labor-intense than ICEs.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#120
post #22

Can somebody explain to me why we need to switch to electric cars when we have Fischer-Tropsch to produce fuel literally out of thin air? We could keep all the existing infrastructure while having zero CO2 impact. I think digging up loads of Lithium and Cobalt and plastering the country with charging stations is neither more sustainable nor less environmentally harmful.

The Fischer-Tropsch process is about 50% efficient. (This is starting from biomass, it will be worse starting with air and extracting CO2, which is hard because less than 0.05% of air is CO2) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001623611...

Then the fuel is burned. Internal combustion engines are typically 20% efficient. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_combustion_engine?wpr...

So burning synthetic fuel would be 50% * 20% = 10% efficient.

Compare that to an electricity roundtrip through a li-ion battery which is 95% efficient, and an electric motor which is 85% efficient at converting electrical energy to mechanical. Even with additional transmission losses, the pure electric system is going to be vastly more energy efficient.

Post reply on HN