We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production • Hacker News Board

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#11

Post by mogadsheu » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:42 AM UTC

While I don’t disagree with the sentiment of the report, I do question its credibility. They don’t cite their sources, but do make bold claims with broad statistics and buzz words.

Looking into the authors, they don’t lack credentials, but it seems like they’re newsletter and report writers, not people who are putting skin in the game to back their claims.

First impression: be skeptical of “the Seba Technology Disruption Framework™“, named after the founder, but open to a change in opinion.

Does anybody have experience with these guys? I could be way off!

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#12

Post by hirundo » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:47 AM UTC

> By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt.

There's an impressive lack of humility here. Predictions are hard, particularly about the future. I challenge the authors to construct a longbets.org wager on the above. I wonder if spelling out verifiable details and putting a significant amount of cash on the line would soften their certainty a bit. If the terms of the bet reflect the assurance in the executive summary I'd be willing to take the other side of it.

Even if they're completely accurate about the benefits and the economics, I think they're greatly underestimating the canalization of human food choices.

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#13

Post by cubano » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:48 AM UTC

Wouldn't the correct buzzphrase be "Food as a Service" not "Food as Software"?

They certainly make bold claims and some cites sure would help to convince me as to their claims.

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#14

Post by DoreenMichele » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:49 AM UTC

Color me skeptical about these bold, precise and seemingly unsourced confident assertions.

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.

-- Niels Bohr

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#15

Post by chiefalchemist » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:50 AM UTC

Too much rant, too little if any data and facts.

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#16

Post by rcpt » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:50 AM UTC

This all sounds great I hope they're right

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#17

Post by rcpt » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:53 AM UTC

mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

While I think it is good to create inexpensive healthy high protein foods, I also think we should have a fair free market for people who want to continue buying real meat, organic foods, non GMO foods, cheap foods produced with GMO and petrochemicals. Free choice and a free market, with strict accurate labeling laws is what I want.

> fair free market

If we had that there wouldn't be so much meat in the first place. Currently, each year, American taxpayers subsidize the animal food system to the tune of $38 billion.

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#18

Post by jmartrican » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:57 AM UTC

The author had me till they said "This is the result of rapid advances in precision biology that have allowed us to make huge strides in precision fermentation, a process that allows us to program microorganisms to produce almost any complex organic molecule."

Is there anything on the market now that uses this technique?

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#19

Post by thetopher » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 1:58 AM UTC

hirundo wrote: post #12

> By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% and the cattle farming industry will be all but bankrupt. There's an impressive lack of humility here. Predictions are hard, particularly about the future. I challenge the authors to construct a longbets.org wager on the above. I wonder if spelling out verifiable details and putting a significant amount of cash on the line would soften their certainty…

This is where I stopped reading. How can somebody claim to be on the cusp of disrupting a market when they evidently don't understand the consumer? Nutritional equivalence will not bankrupt the cattle industry.

Re: We are on the cusp of a disruption in food and agricultural production

#20

Post by o_p » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 2:00 AM UTC

rcpt wrote: post #17

mark_l_watson wrote: post #2

While I think it is good to create inexpensive healthy high protein foods, I also think we should have a fair free market for people who want to continue buying real meat, organic foods, non GMO foods, cheap foods produced with GMO and petrochemicals. Free choice and a free market, with strict accurate labeling laws is what I want.

> fair free market If we had that there wouldn't be so much meat in the first place. Currently, each year, American taxpayers subsidize the animal food system to the tune of $38 billion.

The problem with the free market is that mass starvation can perfectly be a market optimal, of all the things that are subsidized, food is the most important.