Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency • Hacker News Board

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#31

Post by wmf » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:30 PM UTC

colechristensen wrote: post #24

csomar wrote: post #12

Here are some wild predictions I'm making + Many (or potentially all of the backers except Facebook) will withdraw from the alliance. + Facebook/Zuckerberg will defy the gov.s and launch Libra. + Libra might not dominate the world, but it'll be a success (at least a niche success) and it'll eat up some of the marketshare of these financial institutions. I think Zuckerberg has come (or already know) to the realization…

+1 for the first and second points, but I think it will play out much differently. Facebook will try to defy regulators, but I think the SEC will stomp on them, hard. It will end up a hybrid battle in the courts and Congress between libertarians, a few flavors of privacy advocates, US regulatory concerns, and ultimately land on US power projection concerns. I think the US will eventually shape the law and regulatory…

I think the US will eventually shape the law and regulatory environment to prevent the existence of any cryptocurrency with its own valuation - distributed ledgers denominated in central bank currencies will be all that is allowed at the end.

Existing SEC/CFTC/FinCen rulings seem to point in a very different direction. They've had many opportunities to shut down Bitcoin and have not done it.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#32

Post by jameslevy » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:30 PM UTC

justapassenger wrote: post #25

MereInterest wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Popular with people who are looking for another pyramid scheme to invest in, perhaps.

Libra is nothing like bitcoin - it doesn't have investment potential - it's 100% backed by basket of fiat money.

It does have some potential to act as a hedge against USD. It will probably produce some small amount of capital gains (or losses) for its users.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#33

Post by delecti » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:32 PM UTC

nikanj wrote: post #22

vertex-four wrote: post #20

If Facebook attempts to become a money transfer service or bank without the required licensing, they will have their offices raided and their doors locked on them. This is something Governments don't tend to mess around with.

FB is banking (pun unnintended) on the regulators and goverments being absolutely useless lately. Both AirBnB and Uber built empires on ”What if we just ignore the rules”

AirBnB and Uber just kinda did it first and then asked permission. Facebook's only tiny hope of that strategy working was to announce Libra as being available first, not announcing the plan to governments first.

Plus, taxi and hotel regulations are a very different situation than laws intended to prevent international money laundering, tax evasion, sanction breaking, or black market economies.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#34

Post by SXX » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:32 PM UTC

zupreme wrote: post #10

sriram_sun wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't you think they would get muscled out of these failed states if they don't pay up (lobby)?

Muscled out how? VPN’s are global...

Political problems can't be solved with tech. VPN won't help when someone decide to put you in prison for using illegal crypto.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#35

Post by JumpCrisscross » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:34 PM UTC

colechristensen wrote: post #24

csomar wrote: post #12

Here are some wild predictions I'm making + Many (or potentially all of the backers except Facebook) will withdraw from the alliance. + Facebook/Zuckerberg will defy the gov.s and launch Libra. + Libra might not dominate the world, but it'll be a success (at least a niche success) and it'll eat up some of the marketshare of these financial institutions. I think Zuckerberg has come (or already know) to the realization…

+1 for the first and second points, but I think it will play out much differently. Facebook will try to defy regulators, but I think the SEC will stomp on them, hard. It will end up a hybrid battle in the courts and Congress between libertarians, a few flavors of privacy advocates, US regulatory concerns, and ultimately land on US power projection concerns. I think the US will eventually shape the law and regulatory…

> the SEC will stomp on them

The SEC is a civil agency. Launching something like this naked would garner state and federal prosecutors’ interests.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#36

Post by ilaksh » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:35 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #12

Here are some wild predictions I'm making + Many (or potentially all of the backers except Facebook) will withdraw from the alliance. + Facebook/Zuckerberg will defy the gov.s and launch Libra. + Libra might not dominate the world, but it'll be a success (at least a niche success) and it'll eat up some of the marketshare of these financial institutions. I think Zuckerberg has come (or already know) to the realization…

The goal of Libra was not really to compete with Western Union. It was more to compete with real cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, etc. and it wasn't just Facebook's idea. PayPal, Visa etc. know that real cryptocurrencies are eventually going to put them out of business. That's why they joined in on this fake cryptocurrency.

The reason companies are pulling out is probably just because it looks like it's not going to succeed. Another theory is that it is just too obvious when you have those payment company's names attached. Too easy for people like me to say "why do you think Visa and MasterCard would back a 'cryptocurrency'"?

It's quite possible that the people with real power in government will figure out that this is not a real cryptocurrency and in fact is the best defense the government has against real cryptocurrency which they can't track or interfere with. Because Facebook will give them total access for surveillance and control over transactions.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#37

Post by krn » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:35 PM UTC

vertex-four wrote: post #27

krn wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't Facebook just get something like the UK's Electronic Money license? That's how TransferWise operates without being a bank.

Even if the regulators let them get away with that, nobody in Europe is particularly in need of a cryptocurrency for moving money around Europe, we have near-instant money transfers for free (or close to it) through our banks. I guess they could go for the remittances market, but that's really not where I see Facebook wanting to go.

Well, I still think that email is good enough medium for personal communication, but most of the people I know have replaced it with Messenger.

The same might happen with money transfers, if Messenger becomes another WeChat, just outside of China.

From the legal perspective, could Facebook be like Coinbase, but with a single currency?

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#38

Post by colechristensen » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:39 PM UTC

wmf wrote: post #31

colechristensen wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1 for the first and second points, but I think it will play out much differently. Facebook will try to defy regulators, but I think the SEC will stomp on them, hard. It will end up a hybrid battle in the courts and Congress between libertarians, a few flavors of privacy advocates, US regulatory concerns, and ultimately land on US power projection concerns. I think the US will eventually shape the law and regulatory…

I think the US will eventually shape the law and regulatory environment to prevent the existence of any cryptocurrency with its own valuation - distributed ledgers denominated in central bank currencies will be all that is allowed at the end. Existing SEC/CFTC/FinCen rulings seem to point in a very different direction. They've had many opportunities to shut down Bitcoin and have not done it.

Nobody actually uses bitcoin in the US for anything besides investment speculation and really rare toy applications. It isn't being seen as a threat to anybody's central bank, because for all its enthusiasts and speculators, it hasn't developed into any sort of competition for the existing financial system unless you are doing something really illicit.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#39

Post by ilaksh » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:40 PM UTC

DaiPlusPlus wrote: post #13

dessant wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think governments actually want Libra, what we're seeing is the role of Facebook in all of this being forcefully reshaped to better serve the needs of governments. Facebook will be compelled to give up some of the control and access over this new identity system in exchange for being allowed to operate it.

> I think governments actually want Libra Which governments? Libra doesn’t benefit any government. While Libra is a “real” cryptocurrency (distributed, any user can exchange, etc) as opposed to schemes like Beenz, it’s closer to company scrip than to Bitcoin’s model of “digital gold”. Also - despite all the white-papers and hired evangelists - Facebook would still de-facto control Libra: not directly, of course - but…

"Address blacklisting" -- you just explained why governments actually DO want Libra. They will get that from Facebook. They will not get that from real cryptocurrency.

Re: Paypal Withdraws from Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency

#40

Post by Shivetya » Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 11:40 PM UTC

vertex-four wrote: post #20

If Facebook attempts to become a money transfer service or bank without the required licensing, they will have their offices raided and their doors locked on them. This is something Governments don't tend to mess around with.

which is more the reason to support them in creating such currencies. a private currency provider would open up freedom to so many people that it is only natural for governments, read : politicians, to prosecute such attempts directly and indirectly. they lost control of the message so they damn well make sure they don't lose control of the purse strings by any means necessary.

(by message I mean the internet has foiled politicians pretty much using "trusted" organizations as mouth pieces and revealed many for who they are and also prevented scandals and whistle blower stories from being buried or turned)