Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out • Hacker News Board

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#51

Post by kbirkeland » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 1:43 PM UTC

tyingq wrote: post #41

icebraining wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I understand from previous discussions, those blocks (1) can't be split among a bunch of providers, since it would bloat routing tables and (2) wouldn't extend the timeline very much, so it's not worthwhile engaging in that fight.

There's apparently a wait list for /24's now. Desperation might inspire a new set of discussions. I believe BGP tables are close to crossing a threshold. (768k entries) that breaks a bunch of routers, so they need to address that anyway.

We're already past 768k and are now around 800k[0].

[0] https://bgp.potaroo.net/as2.0/bgp-active.html

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#52

Post by dehrmann » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 1:49 PM UTC

tyingq wrote: post #28

I wonder if they will implement some kind of clawback for orgs that are sitting on large chunks of sparsely used blocks. Old tech companies and colleges come to mind. https://myip.ms/info/ip_ranges_blocks/Major_Biggest_IP_Addre...

When I was at Cisco, I'm pretty sure my desk phone had a public IP.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#53

Post by mikepurvis » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:00 PM UTC

paulsutter wrote: post #20

jl6 wrote: post #15

IPv6 worldwide adoption is at just under 30%: https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html If the current growth rate continues, it looks like it will reach 100% by about 2035.

Wrong interpretation: the linked chart shows client-side adoption among Google users In practice today IPv6 is a kind of high functionality NAT for consumer devices. A more interesting statistic would be server-side adoption.

The server side story is terrible. Until I switched my stuff to Ubiquiti, I was having a recurring issue where my old TP-Link router would lose its mind and refuse to pass any IPv4 traffic, but IPv6 was fine.

The result? Facebook, Google, and Netflix still worked, but the entire rest of the internet would just disappear— poof.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#54

Post by Bluecobra » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:02 PM UTC

tyingq wrote: post #28

I wonder if they will implement some kind of clawback for orgs that are sitting on large chunks of sparsely used blocks. Old tech companies and colleges come to mind. https://myip.ms/info/ip_ranges_blocks/Major_Biggest_IP_Addre...

I doubt that, but I think we're going to see more and more companies to sell off the unused blocks. Last year MIT sold off 1/2 of 18.0.0.0/8 to Amazon.

It looks like the going rate per IP is between $20-$24 currently:

https://auctions.ipv4.global/prior-salesw

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#55

Post by tyingq » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:03 PM UTC

kbirkeland wrote: post #51

tyingq wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's apparently a wait list for /24's now. Desperation might inspire a new set of discussions. I believe BGP tables are close to crossing a threshold. (768k entries) that breaks a bunch of routers, so they need to address that anyway.

We're already past 768k and are now around 800k[0]. [0] https://bgp.potaroo.net/as2.0/bgp-active.html

There's another problematic threshold at 1024k.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#56

Post by oarsinsync » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:05 PM UTC

tyingq wrote: post #28

I wonder if they will implement some kind of clawback for orgs that are sitting on large chunks of sparsely used blocks. Old tech companies and colleges come to mind. https://myip.ms/info/ip_ranges_blocks/Major_Biggest_IP_Addre...

Who is 'they', and under what authority? If you're thinking about RIPE or ARIN, legacy block allocations predate those organisations even existing. They have no rights over that space.

At the same time, IANA has delegated 'future' (read: sometime in the past, but not until after those legacy allocations) responsibility to the RIRs (ARIN, RIPE, APNIC, LACNIC, AFRINIC).

Finally, how do you determine whether or not space is used? Ping? BGP announcements to the Internet of the space? Neither of those concludes that the space isn't used, and RIR policies permit for registration of globally unique addresses without any obligation to announce to the Internet.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#57

Post by tyingq » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:07 PM UTC

Bluecobra wrote: post #54

tyingq wrote: post #28

I wonder if they will implement some kind of clawback for orgs that are sitting on large chunks of sparsely used blocks. Old tech companies and colleges come to mind. https://myip.ms/info/ip_ranges_blocks/Major_Biggest_IP_Addre...

I doubt that, but I think we're going to see more and more companies to sell off the unused blocks. Last year MIT sold off 1/2 of 18.0.0.0/8 to Amazon. It looks like the going rate per IP is between $20-$24 currently: https://auctions.ipv4.global/prior-salesw

That's a good point...further scarcity will drive the prices to a point where selling is very attractive.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#58

Post by ammmir » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:09 PM UTC

superkuh wrote: post #39

goatinaboat wrote: post #8

They were panicking about IPv4 running out 20 years ago, the amazing inventions of NAT and CIDR meant it never happened. I predict that we’ll be here in 20 years again.

If you look at the mobile telco IPv4 blocks, or lack thereof, you'll see that NAT is here, heavily, almost ubiqitously, as carrier NAT. It's destroyed the network functionality of mobile telecommunications (lacking routable ipv4) and made them essentially dumb terminals lacking any ability to participate in the 'net. They can only consume other's services.

I don't know how I feel about this. IPv6 is the obvious answer, but maybe some kind of NAT is warranted for devices that tend not to have firewalls?

If each LTE terminal has a publicly routable IP, unless it's statefully firewalled, any random Internet user who can figure out my IP can run up my data bill, or packet me and inflict a Denial of Service. I remember long ago, some mobile operators in the U.S. were assigning public (non-firewalled) public IPv4 IPs to mobile devices... Attackers were literally scanning Sprint's mobile IP ranges for open port 22 and logging in over SSH as root/aspen to hack jailbroken iPhones!

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#59

Post by vertex-four » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:14 PM UTC

PappaPatat wrote: post #47

superkuh wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the mobile telco IPv4 blocks, or lack thereof, you'll see that NAT is here, heavily, almost ubiqitously, as carrier NAT. It's destroyed the network functionality of mobile telecommunications (lacking routable ipv4) and made them essentially dumb terminals lacking any ability to participate in the 'net. They can only consume other's services.

Can you explain what you mean with "It's destroyed the network functionality of mobile telecommunications"? Since I can think of exactly zero reasons one needs his handheld to be reachable from the Internet (that has not been long solved).

I'd like to be able to communicate with other handhelds without involving a STUN/TURN server, which is hugely unnecessary complexity.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#60

Post by megous » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 2:18 PM UTC

top256 wrote: post #45

nathancahill wrote: post #36

How does this apply to email delivery? The biggest factor is having a "clean" IP address. Do these eventually become prohibitively expensive? Does email protocols switch to IPv6 and stop considering address reputation?

With email deliverability the key factor is now domain name reputation and less ip.

Anything changed recently? I got into quite some issues when migrating my mail server a few years ago to a new host, which led to the need to change the server's IP address.