Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out • Hacker News Board

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#21

Post by oarsinsync » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:05 PM UTC

jarfil wrote: post #10

mikl wrote: post #6

It’ll be very intersting to see if this is enough to push ISPs to adopt IPv6 en masse, or they’ll keep dragging their feet and use nasty hacks like CG-NAT to avoid it.

The more ISPs migrate to IPv6 and CG-NAT, the more free IPv4 addresses for everyone else. Wich means the migration will take a really long time. Also the only way to reach an IPv6 target from a IPv4 source is through a CG-NAT, so dual stack IPv6+CG-NAT deployments should be the norm for many years to come.

> The more ISPs migrate to IPv6 and CG-NAT, the more free IPv4 addresses for everyone else.

Uhhh, they're not returning their IPv4 addresses to any kind of free pool. Those IPs that they have allocated remain with them.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#22

Post by tyingq » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:06 PM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #15

IPv6 worldwide adoption is at just under 30%: https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html If the current growth rate continues, it looks like it will reach 100% by about 2035.

Would be more interesting if you net out mobile.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#23

Post by oarsinsync » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:08 PM UTC

vectorEQ wrote: post #2

nice of them to admit last times it wasn't serious then ;D they been calling this out since advent of ipv6 >.> are they just trying to sell ipv6 or what? since a lot of companies move to cloud solutions i can imagine this being less of an issue and a lot of blocks to be returned to the pool?

> a lot of blocks to be returned to the pool

Nobody is returning addresses back to any pool. IPs are being allocated at a rate of over a million a month.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#24

Post by jl6 » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:15 PM UTC

paulsutter wrote: post #20

jl6 wrote: post #15

IPv6 worldwide adoption is at just under 30%: https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html If the current growth rate continues, it looks like it will reach 100% by about 2035.

Wrong interpretation: the linked chart shows client-side adoption among Google users In practice today IPv6 is a kind of high functionality NAT for consumer devices. A more interesting statistic would be server-side adoption.

"Google users" is approximately everybody, and surely client-side adoption is what drives server-side adoption?

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#25

Post by judge2020 » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:17 PM UTC

paulsutter wrote: post #20

jl6 wrote: post #15

IPv6 worldwide adoption is at just under 30%: https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html If the current growth rate continues, it looks like it will reach 100% by about 2035.

Wrong interpretation: the linked chart shows client-side adoption among Google users In practice today IPv6 is a kind of high functionality NAT for consumer devices. A more interesting statistic would be server-side adoption.

And more importantly, server-side adoption excluding Cloudflare, or at least a breakdown by IP and not by website.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#26

Post by privateSFacct » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:23 PM UTC

Isn’t this just for free ipv4?

If you watch cloud providers ip spaces they are growing very impressively.

When people say ipv4 has run out they should qualify this as free IPv4

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#27

Post by mercora » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:26 PM UTC

mikl wrote: post #6

It’ll be very intersting to see if this is enough to push ISPs to adopt IPv6 en masse, or they’ll keep dragging their feet and use nasty hacks like CG-NAT to avoid it.

In Germany i see most ISPs adopting IPv6 by using DS-Lite[0] which is basically handing out only IPv6 addresses and using CGNAT for IPv4 connectivity by mapping IPv4 addresses into IPv6 address space on the CPE. I don't like that at all as it makes you practically unreachable from the IPv4 address space. In order to get IPv4 addresses you often have to convince them on the phone and describe your use case. When you've done that you will get IPv4 address but no IPv6 addresses anymore. I have no idea why they seem to be so reluctant to a true Dual-Stack solution....

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6_transition_mechanism#Dual...

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#28

Post by tyingq » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:28 PM UTC

I wonder if they will implement some kind of clawback for orgs that are sitting on large chunks of sparsely used blocks. Old tech companies and colleges come to mind.

https://myip.ms/info/ip_ranges_blocks/Major_Biggest_IP_Addre...

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#29

Post by moviuro » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:31 PM UTC

Goz3rr wrote: post #16

vectorEQ wrote: post #2

nice of them to admit last times it wasn't serious then ;D they been calling this out since advent of ipv6 >.> are they just trying to sell ipv6 or what? since a lot of companies move to cloud solutions i can imagine this being less of an issue and a lot of blocks to be returned to the pool?

And cloud providers don't need IP addresses?

Not all of them: https://ipv6onlyhosting.com/en-us/cms/ipv6-shop/

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#30

Post by sp332 » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:35 PM UTC

judge2020 wrote: post #25

paulsutter wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong interpretation: the linked chart shows client-side adoption among Google users In practice today IPv6 is a kind of high functionality NAT for consumer devices. A more interesting statistic would be server-side adoption.

And more importantly, server-side adoption excluding Cloudflare, or at least a breakdown by IP and not by website.

Instead of excluding CF, I'd like to see server stats weighted by popularity. I'd bet that the concentration of traffic to just a few mega-sites means most people can now get by just fine with IPv6.