Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out • Hacker News Board

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#11

Post by anderskaseorg » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:19 AM UTC

vectorEQ wrote: post #2

nice of them to admit last times it wasn't serious then ;D they been calling this out since advent of ipv6 >.> are they just trying to sell ipv6 or what? since a lot of companies move to cloud solutions i can imagine this being less of an issue and a lot of blocks to be returned to the pool?

RIPE is one of five regional Internet registries that manage allocations for their respective regions, and all of them have announced the exhaustion of their pools of available address blocks of various sizes at various times over several years, as you would expect. Which of these announcements do you think weren’t serious?

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#12

Post by mikl » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:27 AM UTC

jarfil wrote: post #10

mikl wrote: post #6

It’ll be very intersting to see if this is enough to push ISPs to adopt IPv6 en masse, or they’ll keep dragging their feet and use nasty hacks like CG-NAT to avoid it.

The more ISPs migrate to IPv6 and CG-NAT, the more free IPv4 addresses for everyone else. Wich means the migration will take a really long time. Also the only way to reach an IPv6 target from a IPv4 source is through a CG-NAT, so dual stack IPv6+CG-NAT deployments should be the norm for many years to come.

> dual stack IPv6+CG-NAT deployments should be the norm for many years to come

One can hope. I wouldn’t be too surprised if some ISPs try to deploy just CG-NAT and punt on IPv6 deployment as long as they can.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#13

Post by ehPReth » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:32 AM UTC

goatinaboat wrote: post #8

They were panicking about IPv4 running out 20 years ago, the amazing inventions of NAT and CIDR meant it never happened. I predict that we’ll be here in 20 years again.

amazing?

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#14

Post by tambre » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:34 AM UTC

mikl wrote: post #12

jarfil wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more ISPs migrate to IPv6 and CG-NAT, the more free IPv4 addresses for everyone else. Wich means the migration will take a really long time. Also the only way to reach an IPv6 target from a IPv4 source is through a CG-NAT, so dual stack IPv6+CG-NAT deployments should be the norm for many years to come.

> dual stack IPv6+CG-NAT deployments should be the norm for many years to come One can hope. I wouldn’t be too surprised if some ISPs try to deploy just CG-NAT and punt on IPv6 deployment as long as they can.

Supporting IPv6 natively would be cheaper as they'd need to invest less in NAT capacity.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#15

Post by jl6 » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:37 AM UTC

IPv6 worldwide adoption is at just under 30%:

https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html

If the current growth rate continues, it looks like it will reach 100% by about 2035.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#16

Post by Goz3rr » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:43 AM UTC

vectorEQ wrote: post #2

nice of them to admit last times it wasn't serious then ;D they been calling this out since advent of ipv6 >.> are they just trying to sell ipv6 or what? since a lot of companies move to cloud solutions i can imagine this being less of an issue and a lot of blocks to be returned to the pool?

And cloud providers don't need IP addresses?

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#17

Post by big_chungus » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:46 AM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #15

IPv6 worldwide adoption is at just under 30%: https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html If the current growth rate continues, it looks like it will reach 100% by about 2035.

I'd guess adoption will look less like an exponential or straight increasoming function and more like a sigmoid. As more people adopt, those left will be the increasingly resistant. Eventually, IPv4 re-sale markets will get pricey enough that bean-counters will insist.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#18

Post by dasanman » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:51 AM UTC

goatinaboat wrote: post #8

They were panicking about IPv4 running out 20 years ago, the amazing inventions of NAT and CIDR meant it never happened. I predict that we’ll be here in 20 years again.

NAT is annoying though

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#19

Post by pilif » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 11:54 AM UTC

tambre wrote: post #14

mikl wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> dual stack IPv6+CG-NAT deployments should be the norm for many years to come One can hope. I wouldn’t be too surprised if some ISPs try to deploy just CG-NAT and punt on IPv6 deployment as long as they can.

Supporting IPv6 natively would be cheaper as they'd need to invest less in NAT capacity.

They will more than make up the difference by increasing the rent for the public IPv4 addresses they got when they were still available.

Re: Update: Approaching IPv4 Run-out

#20

Post by paulsutter » Thu, Oct 03, 2019, 12:00 PM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #15

IPv6 worldwide adoption is at just under 30%: https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html If the current growth rate continues, it looks like it will reach 100% by about 2035.

Wrong interpretation: the linked chart shows client-side adoption among Google users

In practice today IPv6 is a kind of high functionality NAT for consumer devices.

A more interesting statistic would be server-side adoption.