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Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

ir.tesla.com

71–80 of 225 posts

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#71
post #41

Am I the only one who thinks the Wall Street is playing dirty? Right before the report they increase the expectations so tesla miss, if they wouldn't increase it that should be a beat, same with eps last quarter. It feels like they force the news headlines to be 'tsla miss'. Or maybe I'm a bit fanatic, please correct me if I'm wrong.

The way this would work is that people work out a target price based on that estimate, and the price should rise accordingly. In any case, they are only a few percent off, the fact that its a "miss" or a "beat" needs to be taken in accordance with magnitude. You are onto something though that a "beat" or a "miss," ever so slight, is generally followed by an increase or drop that tends to be excessive, but this tends to revert within a few days. Some stock pickers like to zero in on stocks that "beat by a penny" (per share) because that is often evidence of some kind of accounting shenanigans to just get over the line.

I don't follow Tesla stock much, but it looks like there was a significant bump in mid September, perhaps on some of these earnings forecasts being updated, and now the price is just falling back in line with reality.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#72
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this good though? They didn't meet expectations.

Yeah it's still good, just not perfect or ideal. 97,000 was above what several prominent forecasts had. The meet expectations game is de facto Wall Street financial fraud. They very aggressively, very openly use it either direction to manipulate the market as they see fit. It's one of the few direct levers of fraud they have that won't get them thrown into prison. And on the other side, you have companies like Cisco…

The FactSet sell-side consensus was 99,000. That’s normally what people look at when they quote “expectations”.

And for the most part analysts, I don’t know if you’ve ever met one, are honest people. There can be perverse incentives at times, but calling stock analysts fraudsters isn’t accurate

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#73
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The street was expecting much higher than 100k. Down 4& after hour. Currently Tesla's valuation is higher than both BMW and Mercedes. No doubt, they're enjoying rich multiple due to other forward-looking business units, but they're not generating any money. Their car business is what's keeping the light on. On long term, Tesla's car business is uncertain. The first-mover advantage is eroding quickly as legacy mfrs ar…

Can the Taycan compete on price, speed, range, and charging network? AFAIK it loses in all of those categories.

Can a Tesla compete on brand, design, interior fit, build quality, support, charging speed, repeatability, handing ? AFAIK it loses in all of these categories.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#74
post #17

They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.

Simple. Everyone is getting into EV.

There isn't a car company around right now that doesn't have an electric model coming out in the next couple of years. And so Tesla has nowhere to go but down.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#75
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do we think they are production limited instead of demand limited? They’ve had to lower ASPs for close to 5 consecutive quarters. That’s not indicative of production constrained.

Having to ship cars to the other side of the planet to the largest electric car market on the planet and pay super high import duties while not having access to local labor (etc) seems like a pretty thorough ball-and-chain on prices compared to what GF3 will enable. Additionally, they have a significant update to the high end Model S & X coming (three motors), the 2020 Roadster, the Model Y, the Semi, and the Pickup…

This really isn’t answering the question. If a company is supply constrained, why would they be reducing prices? That’s literally the exact opposite of what should happen.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#76
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do we think they are production limited instead of demand limited? They’ve had to lower ASPs for close to 5 consecutive quarters. That’s not indicative of production constrained.

Secondarily, the backlog has increased which implies they're demand-limited.

The order backlog includes the Model Y, which is a car that isn’t even in production.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#77
post #63
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon was kind of similar Edit: Wow, so much hate for a one-line comment. I have five replies and three downvotes as of now. I stand by my comment. I think Tesla is building long-term value (brand recognition, a reputation for innovation in an stodgy industry, technical know-how in multiple industries) that will allow them to be profitable. I know well how Amazon got here, but I don't care about the technicalities.…

Amazon has been cash flow positive since 2003. Amazon has a unique negative cash flow cycle where they collected revenue significantly prior to paying their accounts payable. As long as they are constantly growing, it is basically like running a business on a credit card. Tesla is in a completely different situation. Cars require massive upfront investment before their revenue is realized, and given the results just…

Semantics, but “negative cash conversion cycle”, not “negative cash flow cycle”.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#78
post #20

That first line after the chart is the big takeaway in my opinion. The backlog of orders increased this quarter which is both good news, since it shows demand is not a problem, and bad news, since Tesla still can't produce cars fast enough.

Demand mix is a huge problem though.

Model 3 is cannibalising sales of the S and X models. Which means their ARPU and gross margin has rapidly decreased causing impacts to their revenue and profit.

Tesla's fiscal position is simply unsustainable.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#79
post #61
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared

The operational problems can't be understated either. Customer service experiences that are all over the map (Ranging from they came out to my driveway and fixed my car to its been in the shop for 3 months with no end in sight), production issues, QC issues, engineering issues... for every way they tend to "surprise and delight" they also tend to find ways to horrify by not nailing the basics. And you only get to pla…

Please have a look at Tesla's revenue growth. It is a pretty clear hockey stick graph. See in this article: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/24/teslas-incredible-growt...

The problems with customer service and production quality are to be expected if you scale at the speed that they currently do.

Re: Tesla Delivers Record 97,000 Vehicles in Q3

#80
post #13

Forecasters had expected 99,000, so below targets. Tesla has said they are targeting 400,000 for the year, so Q4 will need to be quite something.

Which forecasters? Morgan Stanley put out a note just this morning predicting 91,000 deliveries: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/morgan-stanley-predicts... One of the most prominent TSLA shorts was predicting 82,000: https://mobile.twitter.com/markbspiegel/status/1167484390366... Full-year guidance is 360,000 - 400,000. They should have no problem hitting the lower end at this point.

Wow, that twitter feed is obnoxious.
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