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WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

reuters.com

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Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#301

Post by undefined3840 »

myth_buster wrote: post #15

I'm just impressed by how well the fallout has been predicted by Scott Galloway[0] and Matt Levine. Has been an incredible learning experience for me on the unicorn class in general. Looking forward to unicorn report for 2019 [1]. [0] https://www.profgalloway.com/wewtf-part-deux [1] https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/03/20/the-unicorn-ipo-r...

I wouldn’t say he “predicted” anything unless I’m missing something. He commented on the S-1 after it was released.

He also gave a glowing take on Smile Direct Club the day before the IPO, which has tanked 50% in a few weeks and had the biggest IPO flop in a decade, so YMMV.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#302

Post by ENGNR »

gist wrote: post #179
myth_buster wrote: post #15

I'm just impressed by how well the fallout has been predicted by Scott Galloway[0] and Matt Levine. Has been an incredible learning experience for me on the unicorn class in general. Looking forward to unicorn report for 2019 [1]. [0] https://www.profgalloway.com/wewtf-part-deux [1] https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/03/20/the-unicorn-ipo-r...

I wouldn't give that much worship to Galloway it's not like he is always right or my guess even close to that (and nobody is). For example this post circa 2017 about the bubble. I can't tell you how many people have not called the bubble since the last bubble correctly. Galloway is one of them: https://www.profgalloway.com/every-seven-years Market was at 21,600 (very roughly) on the approx. date of that post and now…

I think it's deliberate, he never gives a 'maybe this, maybe that' answer. He does the analysis, but then does an intuitive glance at the end and takes a side one way or the other

Sure he's wrong a lot, but at least he's never half-right half-wrong

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#303

Post by megaremote »

S_A_P wrote: post #19

What I don't understand is how do things get this far down the road before a good old fashioned sanity check happens? I have got to think that Soft Bank knew/knows the valuation was off. The fact that they pushed on means they either intended to try and get away with it/take the money and run as I cant believe incompetence is the reason here. How did this get so far along??? As for Adam N, I have to think some part o…

Didn't they just get a 300m injection? That is a pretty big confidence boost that you are doing things right.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#304

Post by roymurdock »

jackgavigan wrote: post #298
roymurdock wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Levine is skeptical/amused by the nonsensical valuations but takes a more neutral stance, probably because he was never truly invested in/familiar with/cared that much about new technology and what people promise it can do. Galloway is more idealistic and Levine is more practical taking things at face value and breaking them down. They're both very knowledgeable and worth reading.

> ..probably because he was never truly invested in/familiar with/cared that much about new technology and what people promise it can do. Where's the technology in WeWork?

It's a cornerstone of their brand relative to other office space leasing companies, and tech investors are how/where they got a lot of their funding. Check out their S-1, they mention "technology" 110 times:

"Technology is at the foundation of our global platform. Our purpose-built technology and operational expertise has allowed us to scale our core WeWork space-as-a-service offering quickly, while improving the quality of our solutions and decreasing the cost to find, build, fill and run our spaces. We have approximately 1,000 engineers, product designers and machine learning scientists that are dedicated to building, integrating and automating the complex systems we use to operate our business. As a result, we are able to deliver a premium experience to our members at a lower price relative to traditional alternatives."

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1533523/000119312519...

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#305

Post by streb-lo »

Traster wrote: post #286
Solar19 wrote: post #276

Why is WeWork considered a tech company? And what exactly is wrong with their business model? That's not clear to me from the article. It says they take long-term leases and sell short-term leases. That seems straightforward and potentially lucrative if they're adding value, making it easier to find suitable short-term office space, etc. Is it just that they're not making money doing this? Why not?

I think the reason you don't get an answer to this is because this is article number 100352752. WeWork isn't a tech company because there's no unique technology they use to rent out office space- which is how they make money. Their business model is "Sign long term contracts cheap, rent out to short term tenants expensive". Which is fine, but it doesn't justify their valuation (which is predicated on them 'disrupting…

Isn't airbnb similarly disqualified under your definition?

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#306

Post by 15155 »

sk5t wrote: post #257
rconti wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have a Peloton bike and treadmill both. I haven't watched too closely, but occasionally people ask about selling their bikes (or buying a used bike to save money), and the impression I get is that they hold their value relatively well. Then again, asking price != sale price. I'm trying to validate but all I'm finding on sfbay.craigslist is coupon codes and "Peloton style spinning bike" and so forth.

What I've observed, very very anecdotally, is that Peloton buyers become emotionally invested, and it turns out that they don't use the thing much, but resist strongly the idea of selling it at a huge loss and admitting defeat. Because buyers tend to have quite a bit of disposable income, it takes a long time to drift down to a market-clearing price.

eBay has something to say about this: new Peloton bikes run $2245 on their site, they're clearing for about $1700-$1800 on eBay right now.

This is a significant value drop, but not huge given the logistical difficulties of this specific resale market (shipping these things is hard.)

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#307

Post by ravenstine »

streb-lo wrote: post #305
Traster wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason you don't get an answer to this is because this is article number 100352752. WeWork isn't a tech company because there's no unique technology they use to rent out office space- which is how they make money. Their business model is "Sign long term contracts cheap, rent out to short term tenants expensive". Which is fine, but it doesn't justify their valuation (which is predicated on them 'disrupting…

Isn't airbnb similarly disqualified under your definition?

AirBnB is convenient. WeWork isn't really more convenient than existing competitors. It just has the wow factor.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#308

Post by foobar1962 »

Solar19 wrote: post #276

Why is WeWork considered a tech company? And what exactly is wrong with their business model? That's not clear to me from the article. It says they take long-term leases and sell short-term leases. That seems straightforward and potentially lucrative if they're adding value, making it easier to find suitable short-term office space, etc. Is it just that they're not making money doing this? Why not?

> It says they take long-term leases and sell short-term leases. That seems straightforward and potentially lucrative if they're adding value, making it easier to find suitable short-term office space, etc.

When times get tough the startups go back to their parent's garages or basements and don't renew their short term leases. WeWork is stuck with their long-term leases.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#309

Post by victor106 »

aeternum wrote: post #278
austenallred wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Galloway always predicts that every tech company is a bubble. Every now and then he's right.

Right, maybe not every tech company but he is wrong more often than he is right. For example, he predicted both Amazon and Google would be 'losers' back in 2015.. oops: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2015/04/09/the-fut...

From the article “For Galloway, the winner will be Macy’s, which has successfully gone online,”

Macy’s Stock https://g.co/kgs/8KZ1Kj

Prediction is a hard business.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#310

Post by QuadmasterXLII »

streb-lo wrote: post #305
Traster wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason you don't get an answer to this is because this is article number 100352752. WeWork isn't a tech company because there's no unique technology they use to rent out office space- which is how they make money. Their business model is "Sign long term contracts cheap, rent out to short term tenants expensive". Which is fine, but it doesn't justify their valuation (which is predicated on them 'disrupting…

Isn't airbnb similarly disqualified under your definition?

Airbnb could have existed using an army of secretaries taking phonecalls and making reservations, but it would have cost more

We work could have existed with an army of secretaries taking phonecalls and it would have cost less

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