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WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

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Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat.“ -Margin Call SV ran out of the first two because they are much harder. We are left with the dying gasps of companies trying the third way.

> or cheat This is called "Being disruptive." Basically, just ignore the law, but make sure you get enough workers and customers that love you so that they turn against politics when you break the law.

"Disruption" gets a lot of abuse.

As it was originally proliferated in reference to tech ventures, it referred to a very specific pattern highlighted by Clay Christensen's writings out of HBS.

In classical "disruption," a product or technology that is notionally "worse," but as a result greatly cheaper or more easily distributed, takes over a market from notionally "better" but more expensive legacy approach. Often includes de-skilling of the use case too.

It's sort of like guerilla warfare in that way.

The successful recent IPOs people are pointing to in this comment section -- like Zoom, Datadog, and Cloudflare -- all tend to have a version of this classical disruption if you try and see it.

I say this not for mere pedantry but because taking "disruptive" to mean "F---ing things up (rules, laws, etc.)" dilutes a useful concept in thinking about technology adoption approaches.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a class of narcissist that doesn't really have knowledge and beliefs as much as they have desires and things to say that get them closer to their desires. So in some sense I think asking what Adam Neumann and Elizabeth Holmes really believe is a category error. Knowing the truth makes lying really hard. If you spend a lot of time figuring out what's true, that builds mental habits that make lying feel…

I think the OP's question really involves the CFO or any accountants involved in this case. I would expect the CEO to be driven more by vision than by cold, hard facts.

I'm guessing there's a mix of "it's hard to tell bad news" and "it's hard to hear bad news".

If those two factors are strong (say, cultural reasons), a lot of red flags can fall by the wayside.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a class of narcissist that doesn't really have knowledge and beliefs as much as they have desires and things to say that get them closer to their desires. So in some sense I think asking what Adam Neumann and Elizabeth Holmes really believe is a category error. Knowing the truth makes lying really hard. If you spend a lot of time figuring out what's true, that builds mental habits that make lying feel…

I think the OP's question really involves the CFO or any accountants involved in this case. I would expect the CEO to be driven more by vision than by cold, hard facts.

You mean the CFO who took over the helm of the company?

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This gets called "being disruptive" but it's possible to be disruptive without ignoring the law. For example see SpaceX: successful disruption of the launch industry, without breaking any laws. The issue is that not every industry is so inefficient as to be possible to legally disrupt profitably, so people try to do an end-run around the law.

The CEO of SpaceX did commit a couple crimes in the same podcast. Uber's autonomous car fatally collided with a woman, raising questions of negligence and liability in automation. Uber acquired some of Alphabet/Waymo's trade secrets when they aqui-hired one of their former engineers who apparently kept a bunch of Waymo's IP he worked on. That engineer himself is now facing a federal indictment, and Uber and Waymo hav…

What crimes did the CEO of Spacex commit on the "podcast"?

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter might be a bad example. The current P/E of Twitter is around 14 with the stock trading around 80% over the IPO price.

And when was the last time Twitter turned a profit?

What does E even stand for in P/E? Nobody knows.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat.“ -Margin Call SV ran out of the first two because they are much harder. We are left with the dying gasps of companies trying the third way.

> or cheat This is called "Being disruptive." Basically, just ignore the law, but make sure you get enough workers and customers that love you so that they turn against politics when you break the law.

>> when you break the law.

This is more an inditement of modern society, highlighting how much freedom we have lost

When an app like uber is "illegal" one can not call that society free in the least bit.

The fact that most things are by default a violation of some law or regulation is the #1 reason we are no longer innovating as fast as we used to.

Some might see this as a good thing, I do not

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#209
post #19

What I don't understand is how do things get this far down the road before a good old fashioned sanity check happens? I have got to think that Soft Bank knew/knows the valuation was off. The fact that they pushed on means they either intended to try and get away with it/take the money and run as I cant believe incompetence is the reason here. How did this get so far along??? As for Adam N, I have to think some part o…

I think Uber will pop within the next 5~10 years. I'm surprised they still have investors at this point. So much was banking on the self-driving model, which I honestly think is 10~15 years away from being viable (and for half the cost of the research, cities could just start laying down rails with all their roads .. would be way easier .. and a solved problem). We're due for another venture backed capital burst. Dro…

Where I live any ferrous rails will be gone tomorrow morning.

Re: WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO

#210
post #19

What I don't understand is how do things get this far down the road before a good old fashioned sanity check happens? I have got to think that Soft Bank knew/knows the valuation was off. The fact that they pushed on means they either intended to try and get away with it/take the money and run as I cant believe incompetence is the reason here. How did this get so far along??? As for Adam N, I have to think some part o…

> What I don't understand is how do things get this far down the road before a good old fashioned sanity check happens

One of the root issues is that way way too much capital has shifted out of the public markets into private equity. Public markets are significantly more regulated, transparent, and liquid. Public markets are almost always more favorable for regular investors. Whereas privately funded companies tend to be structured to primarily benefit connected insiders.

WeWork's ridiculous valuation is a prime example. Private companies can easily manipulate their valuation, by only making sure to sell shares at pre-arranged prices so that they never down round. In contrast public companies shares are traded thousands of times a day. If investors stop believing in a valuation that's reflected in the stock price in microseconds.

The industry has built up this cult around "unicorns"- multi-billion tech companies that never go public. As if that's a desirable thing. It's mostly been empowered by a mythical cult of the brilliant founder. Said founder-CEO need be unchained from any accountability whatsoever, lest trivialities like quarterly earnings reports or short-sellers constrain his creative vision.

And of course the private equity firms behind the VC capital are more than happy with this arrangement. Again, it's significantly easier to manipulate the valuation of private companies than public ones. Keeping your ventures private forever enables the fund sponsors to massage the return stream on their portfolios, which makes their risk-adjusted performance look far more impressive than it actually is.

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