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Plane Tests Must Use Average Pilots, NTSB Says After 737 Max Crashes

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Re: Plane Tests Must Use Average Pilots, NTSB Says After 737 Max Crashes

#21
Uh oh. What are they going to do when they discover that there aren't any average pilots?

https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/01/16/when-us-air-... (HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11230287)

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/the-inv... (HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11155889)

Re: Plane Tests Must Use Average Pilots, NTSB Says After 737 Max Crashes

#22
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re thinking of median, not average, but your question stands.

The arithmetic mean (I.e. the average) is the 50th-percentile (I.e. the median) in a normal distribution. The question absolutely stands - unless pilot ability is not a normal-distribution.

In anything with a lower bound (passing to become a pilot) the distribution can be heavily skewed (ie cutting off the bottom 20% of a normal distribution)

Which means that more than half would be below average!

Re: Plane Tests Must Use Average Pilots, NTSB Says After 737 Max Crashes

#24
post #9

If you test for average pilots, then you've still got approx 50% of pilots who aren't capable. Whatever happened to testing for the lowest common denominator - especially in life and death situations?

How about we take below-average pilots, have them run the test right after their normal full shift ends without any rest in between, and give them a glass of whisky for encouragement?

Love this.

Re: Plane Tests Must Use Average Pilots, NTSB Says After 737 Max Crashes

#27
post #23

Wouldn't you need the worse pilot you can get? Average doesn't account for the fact that 50% of the sample are WORSE.

But that's median not average...

I don’t know what you think ‘average’ means. Median is an average.

Re: Plane Tests Must Use Average Pilots, NTSB Says After 737 Max Crashes

#29
The irony here is that when I wrote "The Tyranny of the Minimum Viable User" I'd specifically excluded cases such as commercial aviation, where a minimum qualifying standard can be used.

By that logic, aircraft certification should be based on the minimum qualifying pilot.

https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/69wk8y/the_tyr...

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