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WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

mattstoller.substack.com

81–90 of 440 posts

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#81
The business model of these companies goes something like this... In phase 1, sell $1 at deeply discounted rates of 50 cents. Sell a lot of them to show tons of revenue.

In phase 2, sell $1 at slightly less disconted rates of 40 cents and show growth in margins.

In phase 3, establish monopoly but still sell $1 at 80 cents and show both topline and bottom line growth.

Finally, go belly up after not able to overcome the fixed costs in their business.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#82
post #78

> WeWork then used this cash to underprice competitors in the co-working space market, hoping to be able to profit later once it had a strong market position in real estate subletting or ancillary businesses. > This is of course Amazon’s model, which underpriced competitors in retail and eventually came to control the whole market. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. The difference is Amazon saw what the marginal costs coul…

> with the idea of profiting later on via the surviving monopoly I don't understand...if you undercut your competitors so you're the sole survivor, I don't see how profiting is a obvious end result. When you return prices to market value wouldn't competitors just appear again. Is predatory pricing really such a bad thing, I'd assume the market would just corrects itself later?

Maybe markets would just correct themselves later, but in the meanwhile a lot of people went broke and a lot of businesses closed, because a company was giving out free meals (payed by someone else who is also going to lose money). In the end who profits? Only the "charlatans" who managed to convince others to give them absurd amounts of money. Everybody else comes out with a bloody nose.

And yes, of course the strategy might work if there is a substantial network effect. But if there isn't, such as in the case of Uber, or WeWork, or even maybe Netflix, then the whole operation can only end in losses.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#84
post #78

> WeWork then used this cash to underprice competitors in the co-working space market, hoping to be able to profit later once it had a strong market position in real estate subletting or ancillary businesses. > This is of course Amazon’s model, which underpriced competitors in retail and eventually came to control the whole market. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. The difference is Amazon saw what the marginal costs coul…

> with the idea of profiting later on via the surviving monopoly I don't understand...if you undercut your competitors so you're the sole survivor, I don't see how profiting is a obvious end result. When you return prices to market value wouldn't competitors just appear again. Is predatory pricing really such a bad thing, I'd assume the market would just corrects itself later?

If you can maintain a credible threat that you'd do it again (and win), competitors shouldn't be expected to enter the market even as you're extracting rent. This is amplified by any barriers to entry.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#85
post #74

For me, this whole WeWork fiasco has shown just how valuable the SEC and the S-1 filing process is. Let's be clear -- Neumann was fired because any investor who read the S-1 was mortified and wouldn't touch the company with a 10 foot pole. If anything, this shows how lawless the private markets are and the lack of guardrails that are present to protect private investors -- perhaps this will lead to some reform in the…

Why do private investors need protection? Why can't they be held responsible for the foolishness of their actions?

Because with the rise of 401k and lately low interest rates a lot of people were forced into the market who simply don’t have skill or time to learn these skills to make investments in an unregulated market.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#86
post #74

For me, this whole WeWork fiasco has shown just how valuable the SEC and the S-1 filing process is. Let's be clear -- Neumann was fired because any investor who read the S-1 was mortified and wouldn't touch the company with a 10 foot pole. If anything, this shows how lawless the private markets are and the lack of guardrails that are present to protect private investors -- perhaps this will lead to some reform in the…

Why do private investors need protection? Why can't they be held responsible for the foolishness of their actions?

It's not that private investors need protection, it's that legitimate businesses have to compete against their fountain of capital and that all of these companies employ a lot of people.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#88

> WeWork then used this cash to underprice competitors in the co-working space market, hoping to be able to profit later once it had a strong market position in real estate subletting or ancillary businesses. > This is of course Amazon’s model, which underpriced competitors in retail and eventually came to control the whole market. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. The difference is Amazon saw what the marginal costs coul…

> The subprime crisis is completely unrelated! And if anything it was proof that money-making assets should be scrutinized more. I think the connection here is that the assets themselves were money losing but they passed them off as safe assets despite knowing they weren't safe. If I make money by producing counterfeit bills and circulating them then it makes money. It's still counterfeiting. The underlying assumptio…

No one seriously claims that IPO stock is a "safe asset". The prospectus is crystal clear about the high level of risk.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#89
post #78

> WeWork then used this cash to underprice competitors in the co-working space market, hoping to be able to profit later once it had a strong market position in real estate subletting or ancillary businesses. > This is of course Amazon’s model, which underpriced competitors in retail and eventually came to control the whole market. This is wrong, wrong, wrong. The difference is Amazon saw what the marginal costs coul…

> with the idea of profiting later on via the surviving monopoly I don't understand...if you undercut your competitors so you're the sole survivor, I don't see how profiting is a obvious end result. When you return prices to market value wouldn't competitors just appear again. Is predatory pricing really such a bad thing, I'd assume the market would just corrects itself later?

This is a big topic in business school - never compete on price for that exact reason.

Although things like Uber may be a different beast. They basically got big enough that cities were willing to push aside all of these special interest rules that kept the taxi industry crappy. So by dumping their product and acquiring customers, they were able to change the legal environment and infrastructure around them.

But they are also at a huge disadvantage because they changed it for everyone behind them as well. Lyft doesn't have to burn money as fast and gets all the same benefits for scale. Under their current market position, the minute Uber starts raising prices, they die.

Re: WeWork and Counterfeit Capitalism

#90
post #74

For me, this whole WeWork fiasco has shown just how valuable the SEC and the S-1 filing process is. Let's be clear -- Neumann was fired because any investor who read the S-1 was mortified and wouldn't touch the company with a 10 foot pole. If anything, this shows how lawless the private markets are and the lack of guardrails that are present to protect private investors -- perhaps this will lead to some reform in the…

Why do private investors need protection? Why can't they be held responsible for the foolishness of their actions?

Markets are more effective when there is truth and transparency, that's why the S-1 was so effective and derailing WeWork's IPO. Private investors don't necessarily need protection but if I was a big player in the private market I'd definitely be an advocate for more transparency.
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