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Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

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Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#51

Andreessen Horowitz has a very strong spray and pray feel to it relative to other funds in its class (much like YC). Look at how enormous its portfolio page is: https://a16z.com/portfolio/ . I bet this list isn't all inclusive, either. For comparison: Founders Fund has an IRR of ~55%, at ~$1B AUM scale. It tends to invest in fewer companies -- with much higher bar and conviction -- and its portfolio has a much lower…

> Look at how enormous its portfolio page is... > It tends to invest in fewer companies -- with much higher bar and conviction

I created two theories[1] to explain the difference in investing perspectives between Marc Andreessen and Peter Thiel:

(a16z ≠ Andreessen, Founders Fund ≠ Thiel)

Run Faster vs. Jump Higher

Higher: Investing for Control

You can term Peter’s approach to entrepreneurial strategy: investing for control.

You achieve it by patiently building your business at the same time as ensuring that you will be insulated from future competition. It takes time and it takes investment dollars as resources. Put out some crappy minimum viable product and you lose some options to control because you have shown your hand to others. Instead, what you want to do is put out a complete product with a strategy to acquire the complementary resources to insulate it from future competition.

There is, however, another sort of monopoly — a path that gets you 100 percent of a real market. This is done by having the capabilities to beat all rivals on either quality or cost. To see how this arises consider a very structurally price-competitive market (in economics, Bertrand competition). Now suppose that you develop an innovation that allows having lower marginal costs than everyone else. In this situation, you will be able to capture 100 percent of the market and so you will be a technical monopoly.

Faster: Focusing on finding the timing

You can term Marc’s approach to entrepreneurial strategy: focusing on execution(finding the timing).

It is not so obvious that one path to monopoly is more profitable than the other. If you focus on execution you can get to market quicker and with fewer resources. You can learn as you go and actually invest for the capabilities that will give you a competitive advantage in the future. In other words, while it takes on-going work — no resting on your monopoly laurels here — you can still ‘own’ a market. The difference is that your pricing is constrained by potential competition from other firms.

Finding the timing is the most important part of the execution. You need to execute your idea fast and good enough within the critical window to succeed. Most importantly, you may need to survive long enough to find the right window.

[1] Marc Andreessen vs. Peter Thiel https://allenleein.github.io/games/1930/01/02/narratives.htm...

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#52
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry for not making it clear: they don’t ask for the money, until it’s “needed”. The term of art is “capital call” and while it’s possible to call at any time (perhaps you want to make a huge investment and you don’t have the cash currently), it’s usually somewhat spread out. The “default” behavior is an even-ish set of calls over say a 5-year period for a (nominally) 10-year fund.

Isn't the money in some sense tied up if it has to be ready for a capital call? At minimum it should be in some relatively low risk liquid investment. So there is opportunity cost regardless of whether the investor or the fund holds it until it is deployed?

Kind of, it just needs to be sufficiently liquid that you can meet the capital calls as they come. If you've got 10% of a portfolio committed to a VC fund, you can keep the rest in the S&P and just sell shares as needed. However, you would have series of returns risk of the capital calls came during market crashes.

If you've got 50% committed, then you need to do even more careful cashflow planning.

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC invests 150k for 7%, so a 10,000x is more like $21bn of which it has 2 so far, Stripe and AirBnB.

I was assuming that YC's 7% equity gets diluted by the time a company gets to that size. If that's not the case then I stand corrected.

As I understand it, YC has the right to participate in priced rounds at the same valuation as other investors to retain their 7% stake. That does reduce the return on their most successful investments (since the denominator is bigger), but it also causes those investments to make up a larger share of their portfolio, which helps their aggregate ROI.

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#54

Why anyone invests in any VC fund, when you can do better in the stock market with an index fund, at much less risk, is beyond me...

Because the volatility and risk profile of the two investments is not the same.

The index will pay you beta, which is the market return - no more, no less. If you build a portfolio where you combine an investment in the index fund with other, different investments, you can build many different portfolios which all have different risk profiles. This is useful, as people have different needs.

For example, if you're happy for your money to be locked away for a long period of time (say you're running a university endowment fund), you may be better suited to these longer term, illiquid type of in investments.

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#55
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC (and probably Ron Conway) are apples to oranges with a16z. Spray and pray works when you are looking at 10000x multiples on your best investments. It doesn't when you are deploying billions and don't come near that order of magnitude for your best bets.

As far as I know YC doesn't have a single 10,000x investment (i.e., $100B+ exit). Not one. Yet I once listened to a YC video where Michael Seibel (President of YC) discussed some of their stats. He said they've funded over 2,000 companies, and of those have 17 unicorns that are worth ~$100B in aggregate valuation. So that means their hit rate is generously 17/2,000 = 0.85% Compare to i.e. Jason Calacanis who on his o…

I would be very surprised if Stripe didn't surpass $100B.

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#56
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC (and probably Ron Conway) are apples to oranges with a16z. Spray and pray works when you are looking at 10000x multiples on your best investments. It doesn't when you are deploying billions and don't come near that order of magnitude for your best bets.

As far as I know YC doesn't have a single 10,000x investment (i.e., $100B+ exit). Not one. Yet I once listened to a YC video where Michael Seibel (President of YC) discussed some of their stats. He said they've funded over 2,000 companies, and of those have 17 unicorns that are worth ~$100B in aggregate valuation. So that means their hit rate is generously 17/2,000 = 0.85% Compare to i.e. Jason Calacanis who on his o…

Interesting points. I'd say creative destruction is as volatile as it gets and 1% might be pretty large. On 95% of this planet the odds of creating a unicorn are about zero. Questions: How many 100B+ firms are there? How many arrived in the 'old economy'? How many failures for each ramen, for each SME, ..., for each unicorn?

In my opinion it's enormously unusual to find a product market where 100B in future profits are up for grabs and a testament to mans inventiveness that we are even having this discussion. In a competitive market I'd expect the chance of a unicorn to approach zero. And it doesn't! It's awesome and takes a whole lot of failure.

On the side of the investors I'd be in the boat thinking it's more of a lottery than a skill, but these funds seem to prove otherwise so while I wouldn't invest in them and caution my company to be careful, I hope my pension fund is in them, a little.

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#57
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC (and probably Ron Conway) are apples to oranges with a16z. Spray and pray works when you are looking at 10000x multiples on your best investments. It doesn't when you are deploying billions and don't come near that order of magnitude for your best bets.

As far as I know YC doesn't have a single 10,000x investment (i.e., $100B+ exit). Not one. Yet I once listened to a YC video where Michael Seibel (President of YC) discussed some of their stats. He said they've funded over 2,000 companies, and of those have 17 unicorns that are worth ~$100B in aggregate valuation. So that means their hit rate is generously 17/2,000 = 0.85% Compare to i.e. Jason Calacanis who on his o…

> So they're a 5x fund. But that's really...not that good...(at least it's not world class).

a 5x return on an _investment_ isn't that good but a 5x return on a _fund_ is very good.

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#59
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

YC (and probably Ron Conway) are apples to oranges with a16z. Spray and pray works when you are looking at 10000x multiples on your best investments. It doesn't when you are deploying billions and don't come near that order of magnitude for your best bets.

As far as I know YC doesn't have a single 10,000x investment (i.e., $100B+ exit). Not one. Yet I once listened to a YC video where Michael Seibel (President of YC) discussed some of their stats. He said they've funded over 2,000 companies, and of those have 17 unicorns that are worth ~$100B in aggregate valuation. So that means their hit rate is generously 17/2,000 = 0.85% Compare to i.e. Jason Calacanis who on his o…

[deleted]

Re: Andreessen Horowitz Returns Slip, According to Internal Data

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know YC doesn't have a single 10,000x investment (i.e., $100B+ exit). Not one. Yet I once listened to a YC video where Michael Seibel (President of YC) discussed some of their stats. He said they've funded over 2,000 companies, and of those have 17 unicorns that are worth ~$100B in aggregate valuation. So that means their hit rate is generously 17/2,000 = 0.85% Compare to i.e. Jason Calacanis who on his o…

I would be very surprised if Stripe didn't surpass $100B.

wait until libra.
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