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America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

bloomberg.com

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Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#131

Post by throwaway40324 »

kls wrote: post #110
hammock wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My original family homestead is still standing and was built in the 1700's, it has seen many storms some worse that Irma and Dorean. That is so epic dude. Can you tell me more about it? Where is it, what kind of place is it? How much is original?

Sure it is in Yankeetown on the gulf coast of Florida, Paramount shot Follow That Dream staring Elvis on our property. We have a plaque from paramount with pictures of Elvis and the rest of the cast thanking my family for the use of the homestead. These pictures have never been released to the public. In one of the pictures there is a blond boy standing on the porch and Elvis is sitting on the porch swing. That boy w…

Because I have a vested interest in this type of divulge of information, I have to say that this is one of the most fascinating HN comments I've ever read! I have a scrapbook of of unpublished Elvis Polaroids that was found hidden in a cut area of fabric in the trunk of a car! And theres palm trees present! I'm floored by your comment!

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#132

Post by fromthestart »

electic wrote: post #51
fromthestart wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The net result is you are seeing once in 1500 year floods happening every year. This is the same kind of cherry picking that denialists have been using for decades. Locally rare events appear frequent if you gather trials from enough localities. The fact is that there has been no increase in storm intensity or frequency over the last 100 years which correlates with greenhouse emissions. There was an increase starti…

I'm not referring to frequency but the water content in each storm. There are a lot of sources, but here is a preliminary data report that was put together by NOAA[1]. There is commentary by scientists at NOAA[2]. Overall this isn't rocket science. You have warmer temperatures over the ocean, which yields more water in the air to get caught up in passing hurricanes. The net result is more rainfall when it hits land.…

The abstract of the paper you linked begins with this sentence:

>There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations.

Which is exactly what I was pointing out, and exactly what laymen have come to totally disregard in their rush to blame everything on climate change while believing that "this isn't rocket science." Just like denialists and snowy winters, only in reverse.

This is on the scale of rocket science - in fact in some ways it is more difficult than rocket science, because it is fundamentally an empirical and non-experimental science, and it takes decades, if not centuries, to collect enough evidence to refine/reject theory.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#134

Post by mrfusion »

electic wrote: post #18
Simulacra wrote: post #10

I don't think this article presents enough evidence that climate change, or climate in general, is affecting a person's desire to move to a new area. Florida has always had hurricanes, and it will continue to have hurricanes. Our response should not be to say the climate has changed so much its forcing us to leave, but rather what can we do to adapt to the new climate forces?

The issue isn't the hurricanes or the strength that is associated with them, it is the water content. In the past, hurricanes main threat was the wind. With wind, you can mitigate that with stronger building techniques and since the flooding was minimal, it was easy to recover from. The new issue with these hurricanes is that they are bringing significantly more water with them because of global warming. The net resu…

Do you have a source on that? (I’m just curious to learn about it, I’m not denying that it’s not a terrible development. )

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#135

Post by mrfusion »

todd8 wrote: post #17

SLR (sea level rise) is a problem, but this article promotes a kind of alarmist version of SLR, in my admittedly inexpert opinion. SLR has been going on for 20,000 years, and it may be accelerating in the last few decades due to global warming; however, if your property is threatened by a 3mm SLR per year you probably didn’t make a wise purchase in the first place. 2+mm SLR per year has been going on for at least 150…

I don’t think regular people can appreciate that level of increase though. It’s better to focus on exceptional examples that drive the harm home. If we want action on the issue that is.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#136

Post by dwaltrip »

perl4ever wrote: post #78
devoply wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Billions of birds dead, insect apocalypse, amphibian populations decimated, etc... But yeah people are just being alarmist, it's the end of the world and I feel fine.

The thing is just that people continually present opinions that require numbers in proper context to validate, but seemingly reject the concept that numbers in context are socially appropriate, at all.

We have enough context for the numbers.

Taken in context, the numbers paint a very expensive picture economically (trillions and trillions of dollars), as well as a grave tale of unnecessary suffering for many tens of millions of people, if not more.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#137

Post by hyperbovine »

mrfusion wrote: post #133

Disclaimer. I have unwavering faith in climate change. But I do wonder why are banks writing mortgages on houses in these kind of areas? Shouldn’t they be more worried about losing their investment over 30 years?

You mean the same banks who were underwriting NINA mortgages as fast as they could print them out back in 05-07? (That's "No Income, No Asset", for those of you who do not recall.)

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#138

Post by yardie »

kls wrote: post #120
sjg007 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change has been a thing for longer than 44 years.

So has acid rain an the Ozone layer depletion. None of them killed me even though everyone in those days used the same vague scare tactics at one point I literally had months to live in the 1970;s due to acid rain. Pesticides and fertilizer in the sea is going to, in at least my children's lifetime. I am literately watching the ocean die every day and it is due to what we are pumping into the ocean.

The depletion if the ozone layer was a real threat in my lifetime. It’s only through concerted global action that we were able to not only stop but reverse the depletion.

AGW is different in that even though the science agreed we still have politicians who are convinced it’s not a big deal.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#139

Post by cortesoft »

mrfusion wrote: post #133

Disclaimer. I have unwavering faith in climate change. But I do wonder why are banks writing mortgages on houses in these kind of areas? Shouldn’t they be more worried about losing their investment over 30 years?

"Banks" don't write mortgages, bankers do, and they worry about making their money now. They aren't on the hook for the long run.

Even banks aren't, they are going to package up the mortgages and sell them to someone else.

We know mortgage writers don't care about the long term viability of their loans, just look at the subprime mortgage crisis from last decade.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#140

Post by nl »

kls wrote: post #119
not_kurt_godel wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it was a freak anomaly and I assume I will never see that again in my lifetime. Why do you believe this? The earth's climate is indisputably changing. This means that different patterns will be established than what was normal in the past. There are good reasons to believe that increasing ocean temperatures and higher ocean levels are likely to increase hurricane frequency, intensity, and destructiveness. Although…

Because, I have for the past 44 years been in a hurricanes path on a pretty regular interval. It has not changes with the exception of a single year where I got hit by 4 of them. After that for the past 14 years it has returned to that interval where about once ever 8 years I either get winged or direct hit by a hurricane. Unfortunately the last one was a major hurricane. It's been 2 years so in about 6 I will get wi…

You realize you are suffering from the human "ability" to make patterns from things that aren't with this theory, right?
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