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America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

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61–70 of 213 posts

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#61

A little late if hurricanes are your benchmark for climate change. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane What's sad is that most reporters know that climate change is measured in decade long trends. Small yearly increases in sea level, gradual increases in global temps and slow changes in atmospheric composition. But that doesn't get clicks. Associating climate change with outlying catastrophic eve…

For those who want something a little more current regarding warming and hurricanes:

"In terms of detection and attribution, much less is known about hurricane/tropical cyclone activity changes, compared to global temperature. In the northwest Pacific basin, there is emerging evidence for a detectable poleward shift in the latitude of maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, with a tentative link to anthropogenic warming. In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity. A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric (1982-2009) is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing. Reduced aerosol forcing since the 1970s probably contributed to the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since then, but the amount of contribution, relative to natural variability, remains uncertain. There is some evidence for a slowing of tropical cyclone propagation speeds over the continental U.S. over the past century, but these observed changes have not yet been confidently linked to anthropogenic climate change. Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations."

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#62

Why do people buy beach front houses when they know they'll be under water in just a few years? Doesn't make sense to me.

Because science says sea level rise is 10ft at the worst case in 100 years? In other words, its alarmism and I don’t appreciate blaming (and compensating) everything because the big boogeyman, climate change.

House prices will fall long before that, so buying those houses doesn't seem like a bright economical move, to me.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#63

Why is the government buying these people out? The homeowners weren't forced to purchase these properties, so it's not the government's responsibility to remediate the situation.

People keep demanding they spend money on disaster relief and flood insurance. At a certain point it's better (cheaper) to demolish the houses in places that keep getting hit.

Yes, it'd probably be better if the government let people face the damages for the most part. Unfortunately it's consistently portrayed as a huge failing if, say, a president fails to respond to a hurricane quickly or decisively enough. Partly because of the usual partisan nonsense, but also because the local governments want the aid.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#64

A little late if hurricanes are your benchmark for climate change. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane What's sad is that most reporters know that climate change is measured in decade long trends. Small yearly increases in sea level, gradual increases in global temps and slow changes in atmospheric composition. But that doesn't get clicks. Associating climate change with outlying catastrophic eve…

I am completely fine with it. We need to convince low information voters that climate change is a serious issue, and the opposition likes to point at snow storms and bring snowballs to congress as proof that climate change is a hoax.

At some point they will figure out that we're lying, and then they will elect another Trump.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#65

Why do people buy beach front houses when they know they'll be under water in just a few years? Doesn't make sense to me.

Because a mortgage is only for 30 years. Our whole economic system is incapable of planning beyond 30 years.

I have lived in Florida for all of my 47 years. It is clear that some land is unsuitable for development when taking a long term view. That does not stop the mortgages from being approved.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#66
post #27
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People, en masse, rarely react to a problem till it hits them in the face. Florida does get flooded already - Sunny Day Floods, what a beautiful name. Meanwhile real estate prices keep ignoring the issue: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIXRNSA

Yes, you are correct. Of interest though is this study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073842 which indicates that prices are 7% than they would be otherwise.

Sensitive to exposure -- 22% discount for properties that will be encroached with 1ft sea level rise, 6% with 6ft encroachment -- and to knowledge eg less discount in regions with less belief in climate change, except for investors who don't seem to be influenced by such local beliefs, substantially greater discounting after 2014 IPCC report (dataset from 2006-2017). Recommended read!

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#67

Why is the government buying these people out? The homeowners weren't forced to purchase these properties, so it's not the government's responsibility to remediate the situation.

This is discussed in a book called "The Geography of Risk"

"The chief beneficiaries of the land boom at the coast have been the beach towns and property owners who perversely shoulder little of the risk of building in harm’s way yet enjoy most of the wealth, the report added."

https://longreads.com/2019/09/03/the-geography-of-risk

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#68
post #43

Why do people buy beach front houses when they know they'll be under water in just a few years? Doesn't make sense to me.

Because they know it won't be under water in just a few years, and that the climate scare is selective presentation of statistics in service of propaganda to consolidate political power. Interesting view highlighting the selective presentation of statistics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU President Obama is one of those who must think the sea level won't rise dramatically for a while, given he recently b…

> President Obama is one of those who must think the sea level won't rise dramatically for a while, given he recently bought property near the ocean.

This is a silly talking point. Obama, like other past presidents, is now fantastically wealthy to the point where a few million dollars in lost property decades from now isn't much to worry about.

He wouldn't be fazed by, say, a doubling in food costs, either. That doesn't mean it wouldn't be devastating for lots of Americans if their grocery bills doubled.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#69

Why is the government buying these people out? The homeowners weren't forced to purchase these properties, so it's not the government's responsibility to remediate the situation.

This is discussed in a book called "The Geography of Risk" "The chief beneficiaries of the land boom at the coast have been the beach towns and property owners who perversely shoulder little of the risk of building in harm’s way yet enjoy most of the wealth, the report added." https://longreads.com/2019/09/03/the-geography-of-risk

The biggest flood insurance beneficiary is the Houston TX area. "More flood insurance funds have been paid here than in any other National Flood Insurance Program-participating community."[1]

"After the 1940's, the Harris County area did not suffer what would be considered a widespread, regional flood, that is, until June 2001." Since then, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2015, 2016, and right now.

Houston way overbuilt in flood plains. That area has had floods for a century, but the impact was lower when the big losses were herds of cattle. They need higher flood insurance premiums to discourage building.

The Florida Keys, Greater Miami, New Orleans, and Houston are just too low-lying for today's hurricanes. New Orleans has everything going wrong - the Mississippi River, hurricane country, and sinking land.

[1] https://www.hcfcd.org/flooding-floodplains/harris-countys-fl...

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#70
> "By the end of the century, 13 million Americans will need to move just because of rising sea levels, at a cost of $1 million each"

13M feels low. Given the "of $1M each" then perhaps they means households. At an average of 4 heads per, 52M individuals feels closer.

That said, what goes into a $1M move? Does beachfront property average out that high?

Finally, is that $1M in current dollars, or adjusted for inflation estimates?

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