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Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

newyorkfed.org

91–100 of 141 posts

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#91
post #58

One thing to note is that $100B is created everyday but the $100B is destroyed the next day. It's not like $100B created everyday for the next month.

I guess that's a fair point. Sorry for oversimplified explanation. So, to attempt to improve on your further clarification: technically it is $75b per night created and destroyed each morning. And 3 separate cycles of $30b will be created for 2 weeks and then destroyed. Therefore $90b injected for 2-weeks then destroyed. Point is this is being injected to help banks cover their overnight exposures with the hope that they won't need the help anymore after Oct 10.

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#92
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is there such a liquidity crunch though? And why is the fed stepping in when the liquidity crunch could just correct itself via market mechanisms - if the market rate for overnight lending was 9% I assume plenty of organizations would race to take advantage of that Aside from something that would just naturally correct itself (lenders being temporarily short on cash due to some statistical anomaly), the only expl…

Quarterly taxes seems to have been the initial cover story. My guess is it ties back partially to the eurodollar carry trade. There is an unprecedented amount of international rate and currency arbitrage going on which has pulled US dollars out of the US and could easily manifest unintended macroeconomic consequences like this. One day repo is easy for the Fed to address but if it persists then it becomes a confidenc…

[deleted]

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#93
So if banks are super desperate for Fed funds, but actually have Treasuries to put up as collateral to borrow those funds in the overnight market, why don't they just sell their Treasuries instead, or let them mature, and hold more cash?

Hasn't the Fed for years now been literally paying the banks to do just that with IOER?

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#94
Zooming out, here are some points I've been considering:

1. A repo intervention on this scale hasn't happened since the 2008 crisis.

2. Experts seem divided on what's causing the extremely tight overnight liquidity phenomenon.

3. The Fed refused to budge from its tepid stance on long-term rates and restarting QE in its recent meeting. This stands against a backdrop of a stagnating world economy, the collapse of foreign sovereign bond yields, and unprecedented browbeating from the White House.

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#95
post #55

Wow this is not good. Repo market is the market of overnight debt between banks. Banks lend money to each other to cover their collateral needs/exposures at the end of each day. If banks lose confidence in each other, they start demanding more collateral from each other in the overnight market, which means the overnight rate goes up. The NYFed is trying to keep interest rates down and is having trouble doing it. As a…

So in that situation, the banks are basically in a position where raising their rates (which earns them more) will lead to the feds covering more and more of that? What's to stop them from collectively playing chicken against the feds, while shoveling money into the bag until it becomes ridicules? I mean normally I'd expect a business being close to bankruptcy being told by an investor "This simply cannot happen, I w…

What you've described is already happening, just on a global scale. For 10 or more years, whole financial system is just pushing slowly and collectively the lever, knowing that central banks will not allow it to collapse. So as long, as you're not outstandingly fragile, and instead your collapse would mean a collapse of most of similar financial agents, you can always push your risk a little bit higher, forcing your competition to the same.

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#96
post #94

Zooming out, here are some points I've been considering: 1. A repo intervention on this scale hasn't happened since the 2008 crisis. 2. Experts seem divided on what's causing the extremely tight overnight liquidity phenomenon. 3. The Fed refused to budge from its tepid stance on long-term rates and restarting QE in its recent meeting. This stands against a backdrop of a stagnating world economy, the collapse of forei…

> Experts seem divided on what's causing the extremely tight overnight liquidity phenomenon

Divided on root cause, but not on its seriousness. Quarterly tax payments on the same day as a massive Treasury issuance amidst a Eurodollar carry trade that yields more, for longer, than the overnight markets. Nothing related to the soundness of the financial system.

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#98
post #6
post #4

I wish I understood what this meant. From my primitive understanding, we have too much money concentrated in too few people trying to make unrealistic returns, so they hold on to it rather than invest it. Does this move mean that the fed is trying to keep its benchmark rate too low and absent market forces it would be much higher?

From what I've been able to gather, there has been a decrease in demand for US Treasurys from certain segments of the market. This has resulted in primary dealers having to purchase the difference. They don't purchase USTs from cash on hand. Instead, they use the repo market to fund the purchase. However, the supply of repo market funds is relatively inelastic. Thus, you have a big spike in repo demand with a relativ…

So: Not enough demand for Treasuries, dealers have to purchase the difference, dealers running out of money to keep doing that, the Fed supplying the money for repo. I can buy all that, and it makes me nervous.

How close are we to a failed auction where the dealers won't or can't purchase the difference? How close are we to the Fed having to buy them directly?

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#99
post #88
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then maybe you could use your superior understanding to convey the relevant insights, rather than just assert that they exist.

There's no need to get sarcastic about things. If I said at work what you posted about 36bps not mattering I would get fired on the spot. It shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the topic but for whatever reason you are asserting very strong opinions on the topic. ON repo usage outside of FICC [1] members is quite often used to finance leveraged low margin transactions. Given information provided so far and w…

I explained the basis for my reasoning about the upper bound, on banks, of the impact of the higher effective federal funds rate. I concluded that the size of the impact "shouldn't matter." I don't see how that translates to "very strong opinions" on the topic. Instead, it's an invitation for others to directly address and correct the error in logic.

You, for your part, are conveying very strong opinions on the topic and asserting that you understand it well. But, the first time around, you made a cryptic reply that focused more on calling me ignorant [1] than on pinpointing the error in my model.

When I referred to your superior understanding, that was not sarcasm; that was taking your assertion at face value. I recognize that others may know more about this. One implication of having superior understanding is the ability to make better contributions contributions to the discussion than calling someone ignorant [1] and asserting that a small RoR matters because leverage.

But rather than address the specific error your believe exists, you made an orthogonal claim, obscured with jargon you didn't define (like "ON").

To clarify, my original assertion was that, even if banks had to absorb the entire extra cost of the higher interest rates, that would still be small compared to their return to capital. Do you disagree with that? Is there another mechanism by which the higher borrowing costs translate into higher costs throughout the economy? If so, what is that mechanism?

If you have the superior understanding you claim to, then answering those questions is how you can refute the model I presented, and it should be easy with such an understanding. But telling me that your work buddies think I'm stupid -- that does not add to the discussion.

[1] "Your last sentence leads me to believe that you are unfamiliar with the normal operations of firms involved in these markets." Later, you said, "If I said at work what you posted about 36bps not mattering I would get fired on the spot. "

Re: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well part of the idea is that they get it back pretty quickly. If the fed just gave it all away it would rapidly expand the monetary supply and cause a lot of inflation Though there is something to be said for longer term QE operations only going through banks rather than through citizens

They did rapidly expand the monetary supply and it did cause inflation. Assets are sky high (stocks and real estate). Properties are priced 10-20x cash flow. Stocks are similarly trading at absurd earnings ratios. Does anyone remember https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble ? Massively expanding credit to the point where money is free .... reduces the value of money. But denial is a helluva drug.

QE does not expand the monetary base so it can't cause inflation. It's also not "printing money" as the media likes to call it.

You can't talk about the Japanese asset bubble without talking about the Plaza Accord and the appreciation of the yen.

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